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[NL2-NL10] NL10 JJ vs. pot-sized bet on flop

    • williamtywong
      Joined: 19.01.2009 Posts: 123
      Known players:

      0.05/0.1 No-Limit Hold'em (9 handed)
      Hand recorder used for this poker hand: PokerStrategy Elephant 0.67 by

      Preflop: Hero is BB with J:diamond: , J:club:
      UTG calls $0.10, 6 folds, SB raises to $0.20, Hero raises to $0.70, UTG calls $0.60, SB calls $0.50.

      Flop: ($2.10) 2:heart: , 4:diamond: , 4:spade: (3 players)
      SB bets $2.10, Hero...?

      First off, I dont' think he has QQ+, otherwise, with a caller to my raise, I think he would have pushed preflop.

      Second, the potsized bet on the flop is suspicious.

      I don't see any reasonable draws available.

      Thus, my thinking is that he is protecting a small overpair (i.e. 77-TT).

      If he had 22 or 44, surely he would bet less and slowplay i think.

      Do you agree with my next play then? (Below, highlight to see)

      Hero raises to $12.04 (All-In)
  • 1 reply
    • soucy
      Joined: 28.11.2006 Posts: 2,092
      I agree that he won't have 22 or 44 here because this he def. won't donk ps as non pfa.

      According to his minraise/call line preflop I think he has a pocket most of the time. QQ-AA he might 4bet preflop so I think we are way ahead most of the time.

      Now you have raised his pot size donk ... I recommend to flat call the ps donk.

      Reason is if you shove all in he might fold 55-99. But if you just call he maybe continues to bet at the turn and if he do so he is commited there. So I'm going to call the flop and shove any turn. Even if there is an overcard turned around at the turn i'm going to shove because his range is a bit polarized to a pocket.

      I think I will go broke on such a board too but i don't shove the flop because he might only call better pockets then JJ. If we just call he might continue betting with a small pocket.