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[NL5] do I have a value bet on this river?

    • diabloykiss
      Joined: 19.04.2018 Posts: 94
      I decided to flat vs UTG this time. I easily check/call thinking he may have lots of the time Jx. The moment the backdoor flushdraw hits and he checks, I think he has no KK or AA because he would have bet small imo. I decided to check back anyway to avoid getting raise but maybe I could've raised turn or sometihng like that, given the fact and I cold call with QQ.

      PokerStars - $0.05 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
      Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

      Hero (CO): 109.2 BB
      BTN: 275 BB (VPIP: 19.72, PFR: 14.08, 3Bet Preflop: 9.52, Hands: 220)
      SB: 95.4 BB (VPIP: 57.14, PFR: 32.86, 3Bet Preflop: 3.45, Hands: 74)
      BB: 253.8 BB (VPIP: 35.62, PFR: 24.66, 3Bet Preflop: 12.50, Hands: 73)
      UTG: 119.8 BB (VPIP: 21.15, PFR: 16.35, 3Bet Preflop: 2.22, Hands: 107)
      MP: 100 BB (VPIP: 16.48, PFR: 13.19, 3Bet Preflop: 7.89, Hands: 93)

      SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

      Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has Q:heart: Q:spade:

      UTG raises to 8 BB, fold, Hero calls 8 BB, fold, fold, fold

      Flop: (17.4 BB, 2 players) J:heart: 8:diamond: 7:spade:
      UTG bets 12.4 BB, Hero calls 12.4 BB

      Turn: (42.2 BB, 2 players) 7:heart:
      UTG bets 27 BB, Hero calls 27 BB

      River: (96.2 BB, 2 players) 5:heart:
      UTG checks, Hero checks

      UTG shows K:diamond: J:diamond: (Two Pair, Jacks and Sevens)
      (Pre 32%, Flop 25%, Turn 11%)
      Hero shows Q:heart: Q:spade: (Two Pair, Queens and Sevens)
      (Pre 68%, Flop 75%, Turn 89%)
      Hero wins 92.2 BB
  • 4 replies
    • d1amondhaze
      Joined: 16.04.2018 Posts: 14
      IMO slow-playing QQ here is not a good idea because recreational players on nl5 most of the time have here hands like AK/AQ/KQs/JJ.
      What I found about that high sizing pre-flop is really common for bad players to open raise above range after falling into huge down-swing in particular session and really try to build up stack back ASAP.
      In that case imo is always better to 3bet high and shove flop and get paid by worse hands which QQ probably beat.
      Correct me if I am wrong.
    • TyCobb
      Joined: 30.03.2006 Posts: 4,091
      UTG plays 21/16. Not rly a rec player.

      Flatting QQ in this position is pretty much mandatory imo. OTR u dont ve a valuebet. Even if ur ahead of his overall range ur not ahead of his c/c range.
    • la55i
      Joined: 27.01.2013 Posts: 8,887

      So it looks like villain opens this big with premium hands? You left KK and AA out of your list. We have QQ so we block AQ and KQ hands. If we think villain opens this big with the top of his range, we 3bet and he ships it. I would say we are behind.

      I agree with TyCobb that flatting is ok in this case. I also agree that we should just check behind OTR. Villain could easily have KK or AA but now he got a bit scared. If we bet here, would villain be able to fold those better hands? And with how many weaker hands would he call?
    • d1amondhaze
      Joined: 16.04.2018 Posts: 14

      No, I would rather say he has hands like AK/AQ/KQ/KJ that are relatively strong and he tries to get value no matter what from weaker hands that call pre and fold to continue of aggression most often. He wouldn't do that with AA/KK because he probably knew that he would get more value from this hands playing using standard sizing than going that huge.
      But it is only my assumption after seeing some of those spots on NL2/5 when people overbet pre on tilt and if we take that into consideration it might be more profitable to 3bet call than just flat the flop. Of course, I might be totally wrong but this is the way I would play that I guess.