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[NL5] AA vs river shove

    • hanusmarek
      Joined: 10.05.2012 Posts: 128
      Hello, Villain is 21/15 after 450 hands. Should I call his river shove? Can he have anything else that beats me except maybe JJ and KJ?

      Poker Stars, $0.02/$0.05 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 5 Players
      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

      SB: $5 (100 bb)
      BB: $6.52 (130.4 bb)
      MP: $6.92 (138.4 bb)
      Hero (CO): $5.12 (102.4 bb)
      BTN: $8.67 (173.4 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is CO with :Ac: :As:
      MP raises to $0.15, Hero raises to $0.46, 3 folds, MP calls $0.31

      Flop: ($0.99) :Kh: :2s: :5d: (2 players)
      MP checks, Hero bets $0.62, MP calls $0.62

      Turn: ($2.23) :Jc: (2 players)
      MP checks, Hero bets $1.14, MP calls $1.14

      River: ($4.51) :Jh: (2 players)
      MP bets $4.70 and is all-in, Hero ???
  • 5 replies
    • zetozinho
      Joined: 18.06.2017 Posts: 948
      He seems to be decent, so I expect a wider range. JJ is unlikely.
      A small PP that picked up a set is the most probable hand imo.
      I think it is a fold OTR.
    • headshot2009
      Joined: 01.08.2009 Posts: 94
      I think most often we will see a nuts here like KK if he dont 4bet them before the flop. KJs is also possible. AK sometimes can be here as well. If I would have a note of any stupid bluffs about the villain, I would call the river, cause you need to be right only 1 time of 3, otherways it is a fold.
    • la55i
      Joined: 27.01.2013 Posts: 8,913
      Villain is a reg looking guy. Those guys are less likely to do river bluffs or overvalue their holdings like AK. Call call donk like is often very strong. I think folding OTR is fine.
    • MyFloXyBabY
      Joined: 15.02.2010 Posts: 4,365
      Damn that spot xD
      I also think it's hard to find hands we beat as played, except AK. Call call donk is so the value line, moreover in 3 pots when there are no draws etc..
    • Sunrise1912
      Joined: 24.11.2009 Posts: 427
      Fold it. Standard NL5 reg would not shove a weaker hand. He represent thin but he most probably has it.