[NL2-NL10] NL25 attempting to steal using stats

    • purplefizz
      purplefizz
      Bronze
      Joined: 12.03.2008 Posts: 4,508
      Known players:
      Position:
      Stack
      Hero:
      $4.35
      UTG2:
      $26.10

      0.15/0.25 No-Limit Hold'em (10 handed)
      Hand recorder used for this poker hand: PokerStrategy Elephant 0.67 by www.pokerstrategy.com.

      Preflop: Hero is SB with Q:diamond: , J:diamond:
      2 folds, UTG2 calls $0.25, 5 folds, Hero raises to $1.00, BB folds, UTG2 raises to $3.25, Hero folds, UTG2 gets uncalled bet back.

      Final Pot: $2.25

      i realize QJs is not in SSS chart but i was attempting to use stats to make +EV moves and felt this might be a good spot. still very unsure/ feeling my way around it though.
      in this situation, i have only 1 loose villain w/ vpip 45/pfr 15 who decides to limp in. i attempted to steal and well it did not work out. my issues here:
      1. can someone pls help me with calculating my equity?
      2. what range would we put him on? (should i put him on top 15% of hands?)
      3. is it +EV to call?
      4. should i never attempt to steal with loose limpers? i figured i would have more fold equity because they often have weak hands, i really did not expect to get reraised.
  • 5 replies
    • dandycal
      dandycal
      Bronze
      Joined: 10.10.2008 Posts: 1,711
      Hi Purplefizz,

      1 + 2. I think for you to calculate your equity and his range you'd need his 3bet pf stats.

      3 + 4. Not worth putting you money in here with QJs, very weak hand. You should only attempt to steal against tight players, otherwise your steal will often get called or re-raised and then you'll get yourself in a difficult spot because your hand will be too weak. Better to steal when you are Open raising (no limpers before) against tight players in the blinds.
    • dadude77
      dadude77
      Bronze
      Joined: 26.10.2008 Posts: 1,516
      Yeah with Vpip of 45, its not just limping, he probably calls alot of preflop raises. I don't think its worth it to try to steal against him
    • purplefizz
      purplefizz
      Bronze
      Joined: 12.03.2008 Posts: 4,508
      thanks for you inputs. i've been thinking about this, pls correct me if my analysis is wrong...

      addtl stats:
      his preflop: 3 bet is 3% while his limp reraise is 13%, his limp fold 50%.

      so i guess i would expect him to fold his limping hand 50% of the time.
      against a range of 13% (his limp reraise range), my QJs have 38% equity.
      but since putting the rest of my money in the pot, i will need 69% equity, it is definitely -EV to call.

      i hope that made sense. if not, feel free to correct me.
    • Gerv
      Gerv
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.05.2008 Posts: 17,678
      Originally posted by dadude77
      Yeah with Vpip of 45, its not just limping, he probably calls alot of preflop raises. I don't think its worth it to try to steal against him
      You only got 110 hands on this guy so L/F , L/3bet and L/C on UTG doesnt make much sense.

      You are on the SmallBlind thus always OOP meaning that if he calls you, % chances are likely he will call you on the flop because he is 1) a fish , 2) too loose

      So with that in mind you have to hit Toppair or some made hand within Flop+Turn in order to be profitable.

      Keep your stacksize in mind as well, if you want to play QJs on SB, play BSS imo.

      Best regards,
      Gerv
    • purplefizz
      purplefizz
      Bronze
      Joined: 12.03.2008 Posts: 4,508
      ok thanks. i need a lot of help with fixing my re/steals. i hope maybe we can discuss it more in coachings/videos or in more articles. (the article in silver section is very confusing for me.)
      thanks guys for all your input.