[NL2-NL10] NL10 ATo

    • Jaissica
      Jaissica
      Bronze
      Joined: 10.02.2009 Posts: 1,385
      Results left in on purpose.

      What I want to know is, who calls down $7.50 with complete air against PF raise-call? He wasnt a station, had been observed floating, stealing, blind defending. Floated me off an overpair when im pretty sure he had nothing (one of the first hands we played).

      I was so certain I had to have run into a not-laydownable PP (TT+) that I had to not fire the 3rd barrel and im not sure he would have folded anyway. I swear its as if he could see my cards (not not a serious suggestion, just exhasperation).


      Known players:
      Position:
      Stack
      BB:
      $14.86
      Hero:
      $20.57

      0.05/0.1 No-Limit Hold'em (9 handed)
      Hand recorder used for this poker hand: PokerStrategy Elephant 0.67 by www.pokerstrategy.com.

      Preflop: Hero is BU with A:heart: , T:spade:
      6 folds, Hero raises to $0.40, SB folds, BB raises to $1.30, Hero calls $0.90.

      Flop: ($2.65) 7:diamond: , 7:spade: , 8:heart: (2 players)
      BB bets $1.50, Hero raises to $4.00, BB calls $2.50.

      Turn: ($10.65) 2:spade: (2 players)
      BB checks, Hero bets $5.00, BB calls $5.00.

      River: ($20.65) 5:diamond: (2 players)
      BB checks, Hero checks.

      Final Pot: $20.65

      Results follow (highlight to see):
      Hero shows a pair of sevens (Ah Ts)
      BB shows a pair of sevens (Ac Kh)

      BB wins with a pair of sevens (Ac Kh)
  • 15 replies
    • Jaissica
      Jaissica
      Bronze
      Joined: 10.02.2009 Posts: 1,385
      This hand put me on tilt and ended my night a few hands later (edit - by leaving, not by felting)
    • Fongie
      Fongie
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.12.2006 Posts: 4,978
      Wow, that guy has some serious read on you :D

      Pfr: Fold to the 3bet man, you have no business in this hand with AT... sounds like you were a little bit tilted and wanted to make a move on this guy to get back at him - bad idea

      Flop: You make your move, and raise his cbet. What are you representing here? An overpair that's not AA or KK (4bet preflop, maybe QQ too) or a bluff. He can't likely put you on a set of 8s or quads - you should fold these preflop ;)

      How does he think here? Well, I'm not sure how much he *does* think but he has to call 2.5 into 8 dollars, which gives him 3,2:1 pot odds - 23,8% breakeven equity. As I'm doing this equilation I'm actually surprised to see that he has 24,7% equity against only QQ,JJ,TT!! Sure, that's for 2 more cards (an all in situation) but if you just add a random bluff into the range then he's making a pretty good call here, given your history he might (MIGHT) expect you to bluff him here.

      Turn: You gave him 3:1 again here. Not sure how significant it is to his play, but still... 3,1:1 or so from flop-river makes his calls like, very marginally breakeven against TT-QQ. As I said, add in a worse A high than his and he's good.

      River: I can understand that you didn't want to 3rd barrel here, I agree that his most likely holding is a pocket that he doesn't want to let go - I would never put him on AK.

      So... actually his calls here turned out to be +ev, but I'm not sure if I'm overlooking something here. At any rate it's a pretty courageous play on his part and on NL10 I wouldn't attempt it myself. As to your own play, I would just say fold preflop and find some better hand to make a move with.. considering how deep you are I wouldn't try to get so fancy with this guy and instead concentrate on stacking the fish for e-z-moneyz

      Hope I didn't make a fool of myself by calculating his move as +ev now :P
    • Jaissica
      Jaissica
      Bronze
      Joined: 10.02.2009 Posts: 1,385
      I was up at the time and not tilting. We had been playing back at each other pretty heavily for some time.

      You are sure his calls are +EV against any PP / paired card? Remember, I didnt give two cards for the first bet. He has 12.7% to hit then 13% to hit on the turn call, making both calls very bad against any PP / piece of the board.

      You are right, I should have tossed AT, but this wasnt the first play-playback-push hand we had played. Perhaps thats why he was willing to make the call.

      What upsets me most is that even with the image he had of me I had to leave the table. If he was willing to call down like that I was going to break him in a hurry, but couldnt because I could feel tilt coming on hard.
    • Fongie
      Fongie
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.12.2006 Posts: 4,978
      Originally posted by Jaissica
      You are sure his calls are +EV against any PP / paired card? Remember, I didnt give two cards for the first bet. He has 12.7% to hit then 13% to hit on the turn call, making both calls very bad against any PP / piece of the board.
      Yeah I'm not entirely sure about this, he did call with 3:1 twice which should mean that he got 2 cards for 3:1. At any rate, add in a bluff there and he's still good :P
    • Jaissica
      Jaissica
      Bronze
      Joined: 10.02.2009 Posts: 1,385
      I think you are confusing independant probability here a bit. Each call is independantly made at ~3-1 pot odds with ~8-1 chance to hit... I understand that he made a very, very inspired bluff call but when it comes to against any PP / any piece of the board he would have been overpaying severely. Your equity numbers for vs TT-QQ cant be even close to right :)

      Now, why its wrong is even though he called 3-1 twice and it might seem right to say "okay, 3-1", its not. The first and second calls are independant; to stack them and then equilize vs 2 cards you would need to sum the calls against the original pot, in which case (starting at the point of my flop re-raise) he called $7.50 into a $4.15 pot chasing 6 outs on 2 cards. Equilise that against a range of Ax, PP only and see how it comes up... id be suprised if it comes up very good. Add Kx and it should get worse (he loses a dominated bluff range).
    • Fongie
      Fongie
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.12.2006 Posts: 4,978
      Originally posted by Jaissica
      Your equity numbers for vs TT-QQ cant be even close to right :)
      Try it yourself.
      Player 1: 24,040 % 24,040 % 0,000 % 75,960 % AKo
      Player 2: 75,960 % 75,960 % 0,000 % 24,040 % QQ-TT

      he called $7.50 into a $4.15 pot chasing 6 outs on 2 cards
      What?


      Equilise that against a range of Ax, PP only and see how it comes up
      Equity Win Tie Loss Hand
      Player 1: 45,784 % 38,925 % 13,718 % 47,357 % AKo
      Player 2: 54,216 % 47,357 % 13,718 % 38,925 % 22+, ATs+, ATo+

      Add Kx

      Equity Win Tie Loss Hand
      Player 1: 55,467 % 50,135 % 10,664 % 39,202 % AKo
      Player 2: 44,533 % 39,202 % 10,664 % 50,135 % 22+, ATs+, KTs+, ATo+, KTo+

      All of these calculations are with the board stated (877)


      I don't think this is really relevant though :tongue:
      I'm curious as to what the pro judges would say about his play.
    • Jaissica
      Jaissica
      Bronze
      Joined: 10.02.2009 Posts: 1,385
      You are ignoring that the first and second calls are independantly made at 3-1 to the pot at the time, not against the initial flop pot. You cant equilate "3-1" against the flop and 2 cards for the flop-only bet price, which is what you are doing.

      If you want to equilate from the flop giving two cards, you need to count the entire bets made after the flop ($7.50 from the point of re-raise to win a total pot of 7.50 + 4.15 = 11.65), NOT just the flop bet. This dramatically changes calling odds (from 2.5 into 6.65 to 7.5 into 11.65). First pot he needs 2.66-1 (this is what you are equilising and thinking "hey we have odds to call here! even though we dont even at 24% equity), second 1.553*-1 (needs 40% equity+ to call).

      If you still dont follow here, someone else might be able to explain it better. Basically you are taking the flop, equilating it from there to the showdown and ignoring the $5 paid on the turn to see the river. Its like justifying paying 2/3 pot bets on flop and turn chasing FD/OESD by saying "I have a 30/35% chance to improve from flop to river". The statement is loosely correct and if the flop bet was a shove the call would be correct, but because you paid it twice over it is incorrect.


      Edit - if you still disagree and by some mirical live in Melbourne, Australia, I would be very happy to prop-bet you a situation where I hold 22, board is 678, you hold AK (no str / fd possible). I will ante 76 units and you can ante 24 units for the flop (equity, according to your sums), then I will bet 24 units (24% of the pot) and you can call it to see the turn. Then I bet 36 units (24% of the new pot) and you call it to see the river. Winner takes the pots. Run it against yourself if you doubt me. Just get a deck of cards and a notepad and keep track :)

      (22 wins 76% AK wins 24%. Total investment 136 units vs 84 units, 61.8% vs 38.2%.).
    • Fongie
      Fongie
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.12.2006 Posts: 4,978
      No no, I'm not equilating ""3-1" against the flop", I'm just equilating the chance of AKo winning against the ranges on that board, assuming we see both turn and river. The percentages given have nothing to do with the pot, they're just probability of winning!
      I have said before that you probabably can't just say 3:1 on both streets = 3:1 total (actually I'm now convinced it is not so, and you are right about this). He did in the end call 7.5 into a 20.6 dollar pot which gives 36,4% breakeven equity, but he is STILL ahead of this if you add Ax into your range!!!

      I'm pretty sure this situation can't really be cleared up with equity calculations, but in the end - if this guy can reasonably put you on TT-QQ, AT+ and that you are unable to fire a 3rd barrel, then he has made two profitable calls here.
      I think it's a bit much to suppose that he can deduce all that from your stats or reads, but still! :P
    • Jaissica
      Jaissica
      Bronze
      Joined: 10.02.2009 Posts: 1,385
      No, its 7.5 to win 11.65 :)

      Otherwise you could justify calling stack vs stack on 2-1 odds preflop (JQ vs AK) because its $10 to "win" $20.
    • Fongie
      Fongie
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.12.2006 Posts: 4,978
      Originally posted by Jaissica
      No, its 7.5 to win 11.65 :)
      Naah that's wrong too, but you're right that 7.50 into 20.6 isnt correct either. You can't say 7.5 into 11.65 because once on the turn, you have to count the money he put in the pot earlier as "to win", because they're not his anymore - they're the pot's money. Screw these calculations, I think they don't have so much with this hand to do anyway :tongue:
    • Jaissica
      Jaissica
      Bronze
      Joined: 10.02.2009 Posts: 1,385
      They dont, but im just trying to explain to you why villain has only 12.7% and then 13% equity (played per card, turn and river) vs 22+, not 24% - which is only correct if there was no bet on the turn :)

      Flop call required 27% one-card equity, river call required 24% again. Combined it required 36.4% equity. edit - vs 22-QQ, of course.

      If he was 25% sure I had dominated unpaired overcards (Ax that hadnt hit minus AK) (75% of the time win only 24%, 25% of the time win ~90%) he had 18% + 22.5% equity and it was a good call.

      If he was 25% sure I had undominated unpaired overcards (75% of the time win 24%, 25% of the time win ~80%) he had 38% equity and it was fairly marginal.

      Of course he could have had a far stronger read on me bluffing, but then I very very (oh so very rarely) do more than cbet bet with air on micro. I think this is the first time ive been caught pushing a real heavy bluff down in the last few thousand hands, and I wouldnt have done it more than 2-3 other times in that entire sample.

      My stats for the session in question were (combined over two tables) 18 14 2.0 42 over 503 hands, ORL 19 (CO) 36 (BU) 30 (SB). I wouldnt have thought to read a 2.0 AF player as a maniac capable of bluff-reraising air then bluffing turn to the point that I would call down with the "best air" myself :)
    • Fongie
      Fongie
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.12.2006 Posts: 4,978
      Yep, weird hand and you were a bit unlucky (or he was guided by providence) :tongue:
    • radyan111
      radyan111
      Bronze
      Joined: 03.07.2008 Posts: 1,151
      You want to bluff him out here - your choice, I won't comment on that, you had your reads, I'm ok with it. But... if you had history with that player your bluff is spottable. Your raise on flop is very weak. You should've raised with an overpair for protection to 5,5$ at least. With so much money in the pot you're essentialy minraising. The same goes for the turn bet - you won't ever bet lower than half a pot woth a made hand here.

      For me it's just a fold preflop, but I guess that's not the case here :) .
    • Jaissica
      Jaissica
      Bronze
      Joined: 10.02.2009 Posts: 1,385
      Perhaps, but its the betting line id take with 99-QQ. Essentially my re-raise would be "do you have pockets?" and the call, check line says "no, just overcards".

      Protection on the flop is almost unneccessary as the chance of a PF re-raise from 9Ts is pretty small.

      Protection on the turn is possibly due to the running flush but still not a massive concern.

      I just should have laid it down preflop. I guess the driving force behind this hand was realising that he was calling every other PFR I made and deliberately floating into me from position. Instead of getting cranky and pushing back so hard then being calling-stationed by air I should have left the table to get out of being OOP against a floater.

      Edit - the more and more I think about this the more I am certain that the correct move was to leave the table as soon as I realised he was a very strong, aggressive float. The villain was simply a stronger player than I am and there was no reason to stay in a situation of OOP against him. Above all else this was a failure of table selection.
    • TribunCaesar
      TribunCaesar
      Bronze
      Joined: 29.04.2007 Posts: 13,264
      Fold preflop. This is not a good hand to call a 3bet.

      Best regards,
      TribunCaesar