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[NL2] Does your X/R range include KJo in this spot?

    • leath
      leath
      Bronze
      Joined: 25.02.2018 Posts: 16
      PokerStars - $0.02 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
      Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

      UTG: 148.5 BB (VPIP: 37.50, PFR: 37.50, 3Bet Preflop: 50.00, Hands: 18)
      CO: 40 BB (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 3)
      BTN: 196.5 BB (VPIP: 6.25, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 18)
      SB: 87 BB (VPIP: 22.22, PFR: 5.56, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 18)
      Hero (BB): 100 BB

      SB posts SB 0.5 BB, Hero posts BB 1 BB

      Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has J K

      UTG raises to 3 BB, fold, fold, fold, Hero calls 2 BB

      Flop: (6.5 BB, 2 players) Q A 9

      Hero checks, UTG bets 3.5 BB, Hero calls 3.5 BB

      Turn: (13.5 BB, 2 players) 6

      Hero checks, UTG bets 7 BB, Hero raises to 17.5 BB, fold

      Hero wins 26.5 BB


      Here are my thoughts:
      Preflop: Vs a good opponent I think this hand is not strong enough to call from the BB vs a UTG open so I'll rather fold it in the future. But here we are.
      Flop: In my opinion this texture definitely belongs to the UTG raiser so I'm going to play less aggressively here if I get the odds (X/C).
      When villain bets roughly half pot I think I'm good calling with implied odds. I figured I'd need to extract roughly 27 more bb on later streets to make the call. Math:

      3 bb to call * 13 = 39 bb
      pot after call = 6 + 3 + 3 = 12 bb
      39 - 12 = 27 bb

      With effective stacks of 93 bb behind I thought this was reasonably achievable.
      Turn: The turn card doesn't really change anything for either range but it gives my specific holding a ton more outs, so I think it's reasonable to go for a semi-bluff. I don't really like the idea of donking here because it seems like an unreasonable play that villain might call at a somewhat high frequency so it seems X/R is the best option I have. The fact that turn raises are usually very value-heavy makes it all the more attractive, and the As on the board as well as the Ks in my hand block villain from having most flushes in his range.

      However, I'm unsure about what my plan should be on the river in case I miss.
      Population analysis suggests that the average player does not fold enough to a turn raise for an automatic profit (i.e. any 2 cards), but a turn raise with a FD is clearly profitable. So I feel like this is where my value should come from and I could comfortably X/F the river if I miss.
      On the other hand the average player overfolds to river cbets after calling a turn raise (around 50%). So if the X/F line is 0 EV, cbetting the river seems to be the better option if it is even slightly profitable (which it should be according to this data).

      I'm bringing up population analysis here because I only have 18 hands on villain and no useful reads, especially of those rare river situations. And overall I think it's pretty reliable.
  • 6 replies
    • MyFloXyBabY
      MyFloXyBabY
      Platinum
      Joined: 15.02.2010 Posts: 3,220
      I like it as played, I agree with pretty much about everything you wrote.
    • zetozinho
      zetozinho
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.06.2017 Posts: 292
      Calling pre, check-call OTF and donk the turn is known as the Johnny Chan play. The main ideia is to take control of the hand OOP and negate some positional disadvantage, while not risking too much by check-raising OTF, which allows the villain to act again on this street, as well as OTT.
      By check-calling the flop and leading the turn you take on street off basically, while you spend the same as if you decided to check-raise OTF.
      I think you can play this turn in a mixed strategy between the JCP, the check-raise and even the check-call, even though this last case is more suited against a good opponent that understands what you're doing imo.
      About planning the river, I still have some difficulties in a spot like this where I get called and miss the river.
      A good player we'll be able to identify that and bluff more often OTR against you imo.
    • SDK1987
      SDK1987
      Moderator
      Moderator
      Joined: 12.11.2008 Posts: 39,580
      I have moved your hand to our hand discussions forum. There fits it better.
      Not sure I would ever check raise against a random player on NL2 as bluff, but with the nut flush draw it's not to bad to do. Off course I would give up if he 3bets the turn or you miss the river.

      Cheers,
      SDK1987
    • OrigamiPoker
      OrigamiPoker
      Silver
      Joined: 27.10.2018 Posts: 68
      I know it's 5 handed so the raise comes from mp but for me it's a fold pre. With the high rake of the micros and with it being oop i don't see it as being a very +ev spot it's marginal at best. It becomes far more playable in certain spots with info on villain
    • SDK1987
      SDK1987
      Moderator
      Moderator
      Joined: 12.11.2008 Posts: 39,580
      Originally posted by SacredCow
      I know it's 5 handed so the raise comes from mp but for me it's a fold pre. With the high rake of the micros and with it being oop i don't see it as being a very +ev spot it's marginal at best. It becomes far more playable in certain spots with info on villain
      Don't forget he looks like a LAG pre-flop, but defending out of position is always tricky indeed.
    • OrigamiPoker
      OrigamiPoker
      Silver
      Joined: 27.10.2018 Posts: 68
      Originally posted by SDK1987
      Originally posted by SacredCow
      I know it's 5 handed so the raise comes from mp but for me it's a fold pre. With the high rake of the micros and with it being oop i don't see it as being a very +ev spot it's marginal at best. It becomes far more playable in certain spots with info on villain
      Don't forget he looks like a LAG pre-flop, but defending out of position is always tricky indeed.
      That's true but it's only 18 hands. I don't think it's a bad defend by any means I just think you can err on the tighter side with little to no info. In reality this should probably be the bottom of your defending range here for the offsuit hands but when taking into account the rake and being oop etc.. I think it's a marginal hand that can go either way.

      As played though I really like Op's line postflop.