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SnG STT - AJs in the bubble

    • arnaldofiori
      arnaldofiori
      Bronze
      Joined: 31.10.2015 Posts: 6
      Hello all, good morning from Brazil.

      In a 10handed 40cents SnG I faced this decision that I would like some help to understand how to proceed best:

      My own image: tag player, few shoves/open raises without a showdown.
      BU player: in the middle game he started to go crazy and cold call and open raise speculative ranges including calling open pushes with QTo.
      SB Player: Quiet nit and will just call my open push with QQ+ and wide AK.
      BB Player: TAG and his range could be, in a heads up, something JJ+ and AK.

      What I tough before opened push: BU player could call with a wide range and my move will be EV+, SB, and BB players range are too narrow that they offered a better fold equity. My intention was to win dead money.

      Mathematically was a EV+ accordingly SnGWizard.

      My main concern is the "bias against confrontation": In this situation will be better to me wait to see others players fight against each other and I got ITM anyway?


      Pacific, $0.34 Buy-in (100/200 blinds, 20 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 4 Players
      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

      SB: 3,846 (19.2 bb)
      BB: 4,000 (20 bb)
      Hero (CO): 2,172 (10.9 bb)
      BTN: 4,982 (24.9 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is CO with :Ac: :Jc:
      Hero raises to 2,152 and is all-in, BTN calls 2,152, SB folds, BB raises to 3,980 and is all-in, BTN calls 1,828

      Flop: (10,292) :Tc: :2s: :Kh: (3 players, 2 are all-in)
      Turn: (10,292) :9h: (3 players, 2 are all-in)
      River: (10,292) :9d: (3 players, 2 are all-in)

      Results:
      10,292 pot
      Final Board: :Tc: :2s: :Kh: :9h: :9d:
      BB showed :Kc: :As: and lost (-4,000 net)
      Hero showed :Ac: :Jc: and lost (-2,172 net)
      BTN showed :9s: :Jd: and won 10,292 (6,292 net)



      Thanks,
  • 22 replies
    • maniac
      maniac
      Silver
      Joined: 29.03.2006 Posts: 7,446
      hi,

      very clear shove. It's just a bad runout. You are one of the shorties on the table. You need chips. This is a good had to shove. I would shove down to at least A8s+ ATo+, 66+, KTs, KQo. If they call really loose cut out the bottom of the nash range. J9o is a terrible call but you want him to make this calls. This is where your money comes from.


      greets


      maniac
    • bookai
      bookai
      Bronze
      Joined: 12.02.2012 Posts: 3,958
      "In this situation will be better to me wait to see others players fight against each other and I got ITM anyway?"

      Sometimes you do have to be risk averse. That does not apply when you are last with half the chips of the next stack. Played it right, got unlucky...open new sng! Good luck!
    • DSharkP
      DSharkP
      Silver
      Joined: 16.09.2012 Posts: 347
      Good Shove , +EV
    • OldSchoolPapa
      OldSchoolPapa
      Bronze
      Joined: 31.10.2010 Posts: 462
      I think if your goal is to make +EV moves then it's a good shove. But if your goal is to make it ITM then according to the table dynamic you describe it's not. On a personal side i don't care much about +EV or not. It's a good thing to understand but not to apply blindly especially @ micros. EV is Expected Value and in my opinion i rather run below EV and have a positive ROI and Cnet than run with a huge +EV line and have a low/negative ROI. I prefer what i can get to what i can expect to win eventually in an hypotetical futur. But again it's just a personal view of things. If you mass tabling with a huge volume then take every +EV push can make sens. On a low/medium volume if you can make it ITM without busting i think it makes more sens.

      Best of Skills & Luck @ Tables,
      OldSchoolPapa.
    • SDK1987
      SDK1987
      Moderator
      Moderator
      Joined: 12.11.2008 Posts: 39,550
      You are the short stack and is AJs a easy shove. It's weird that the BTN isolate with crap here. Also the shove with AKo of the BB is questionable on the bubble without any fold equity as 2nd in chips.

      Cheers,
      SDK1987
    • DSharkP
      DSharkP
      Silver
      Joined: 16.09.2012 Posts: 347
      OldSchoolPapa , Completely disagree, I would maybe agree if he was like 2nd CHip Leader, but since he is the Shortest Stack he has to look for opportunities and this is one of those, Clearly.
    • OldSchoolPapa
      OldSchoolPapa
      Bronze
      Joined: 31.10.2010 Posts: 462
      To me as long you have more than 1000 chips you are still alive and able to make it when on the bubble if the table is very agressive and he does have more than 1000 chips. Like i said it's a good push in term of EV but to me if i take into account the table dynamic , i go for the ITM without a doubt. It's a matter of style here.
      Now if the stake was higher with more educated poker player i would more likely go for a push because they understand much better ICM.
      But from the bottom to 0.50 cents nop except if the table is filled with regulars on your left you often gonna be disappointed.

      Best of Skills & Luck @ Tables,
      OldSchoolPapa.
    • DSharkP
      DSharkP
      Silver
      Joined: 16.09.2012 Posts: 347
      I kind of like the point you made just now :f_cool: :f_drink:
    • arnaldofiori
      arnaldofiori
      Bronze
      Joined: 31.10.2015 Posts: 6
      OldSchoolPapa,

      I agree with you. In a table with players with knowledge about ICM they will narrow their calling ranges and steals will be productive, but in the other hand, as they aren't good (needer do I) the bias against confrontation is in my favor.
      I would like to go more ITM than having a good EV+ w/o win any money.
    • adasko99
      adasko99
      Gold
      Joined: 13.02.2011 Posts: 2,201
      this is regular speed right? non-turbo?
    • ghaleon
      ghaleon
      Black
      Joined: 17.10.2007 Posts: 6,264
      Well if people make lot of mistakes by stacking off too wide we can and should tighten our shoving range in spot like this. I would still think though that AJs is mandatory shove as it would require pretty absurd ranges for villains to collide after our fold to make fold better than shove. In general if you start folding hands like this in hope that you will get into ITM by folding you are likely ending up to get lot more 4th and 3rd positions. By dying through blinds or barely making ITM.
    • OldSchoolPapa
      OldSchoolPapa
      Bronze
      Joined: 31.10.2010 Posts: 462
      Also i would like to add , if the game instead to be 9Man was 45/90/180Man i would push even wider and before to get to that stack size.
      Because the Risk/Reward ratio is also important in my opinion in my decision process. On a 9 Man with a low volume of game played, 3rd places even if you don't make much from them keep you alive but here i'm only talking about the lowest micros. i'm a low volume player even very low but at 50 cents i played something like 1500 Sngs wich is low to be really revelant but with a positive ROI. During that time i tried different kind of way to play , like sticking to ICM to the letter, Adjusting ranges of ICM with HRC , be more selective about SNGs targetting more recreatives. On my side and from my little experience of the lowest stakes it doesn't work, i mean if playing at the same stake without mixing different stakes wich could make us missinterpret results you more likely end breakeven or with losses. I think it's because @ lowest micros if you stick to ICM you gonna have to win more flips in order to win against recreative players. On the other side vs Regulars i was doing much much better , knowing how they think , the risks they are willing to take , when , with wich range then ICM is relevant and adjusting to ICM is even more relevant. Against recreatives i don't think there is magic formula to make you win. I try to do basically the opposite of what's adviced . Exemple play tight early on ... Vs Recreatives i try to play more and more hands early on IP even OOP if passive because even saving chips for push and fold later on won't bring you much more fold equity on those low stakes also most recreatives don't care about your table image. Can't talk about higher stakes where i didn't play much games to have real insight.
      If you want to apply more ICM concepts in your game select SNGs with atleast 3-4 regulars. Or play same monetary risk but higher reward like 90/180 Man Sngs.
      It's just what i think not a guideline to follow , neither the best advice of your life but simply what i notice by playing 0.50c and under. The best thing you can do is to have a very Good BRM and make your own tests to see how it goes. Try to select SNGs with Regulars on the 0.50c and under for awhile if you BR allows you to play there and then select only SNGs with recreatives or only 1 Regular for awhile and compare. Do the same by sticking to ICM / Adjusting and by trying to play differently against recreatives then see what gives you the best ROI ..

      Best of Skills & Luck @ Tables,
      OldSchoolPapa.
    • adasko99
      adasko99
      Gold
      Joined: 13.02.2011 Posts: 2,201
      AJs is a +$EV snap shove here.
      You are the shortest stack on the bubble so you are not in a position to try to fold to the money because the rest of the table will just "wait" until you're gone.
      In other words, you are forced to take close spots.
      This spot is not close tho, openshove and be happy about it, after all it's impossible to never bubble :f_thumbsup:

    • OldSchoolPapa
      OldSchoolPapa
      Bronze
      Joined: 31.10.2010 Posts: 462
      We already said it was a +EV push .... HRC is great but do not take into account, Dynamic of table and on HRC you also have to change the range of your opponents Call / Push / Overcall manualy since on the 0.50c and under they don't apply the range ICM players normally use. And if you don't results won't be accurate. It's like to apply GTO strategy at a table where nobody will care or try to exploit you ... useless or almose useless ;)

      Best of Skills & Luck @ Tables,
      OldSchoolPapa.
    • adasko99
      adasko99
      Gold
      Joined: 13.02.2011 Posts: 2,201
      If it's +EV vs Nash calling ranges, it can only be more profitable vs tighter calling ranges of micro players :f_cool:
      I use Nash as a default reference point and go from there if needed :f_thumbsup:
    • OldSchoolPapa
      OldSchoolPapa
      Bronze
      Joined: 31.10.2010 Posts: 462
      Aggro Micro SNG players with a "tighter" range @ 0.50c and under ?? LoL
      Don't think so ... :f_drink:
    • adasko99
      adasko99
      Gold
      Joined: 13.02.2011 Posts: 2,201
      lol if you think that an average microstakes player is capable of recognizing wneh you push anytwo and call you with J2s then good luck to you too :f_drink:
    • OldSchoolPapa
      OldSchoolPapa
      Bronze
      Joined: 31.10.2010 Posts: 462
      They don't need to recognize because they don't care much. So they call , overcall basically very wide at the stakes mentionned unless it's a FR room with Tag/Nit Players wich is not the case mentionned in the Thread by the OP.
      So For Sure Good Luck To You as Well :f_cool:
    • adasko99
      adasko99
      Gold
      Joined: 13.02.2011 Posts: 2,201
      I disagree and thank you xD
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