[NL2-NL10] NL10 AK - how strong am I preflop?

    • williamtywong
      williamtywong
      Bronze
      Joined: 19.01.2009 Posts: 123
      Known players:
      Position:
      Stack
      Hero:
      $9.75
      UTG:
      $8.85
      MP1:
      $3.15
      CO:
      $8.82
      BU:
      $7.58

      0.05/0.1 No-Limit Hold'em (10 handed)
      Hand recorder used for this poker hand: PokerStrategy Elephant 0.67 by www.pokerstrategy.com.

      Preflop: Hero is SB with A:club: , K:diamond:
      UTG calls $0.10, 2 folds, MP1 calls $0.10, 2 folds, CO raises to $0.55, BU calls $0.55, Hero...

      Chart would have me raise to $2.20, but would that be the correct move to make? How strong is my position here on the flop? Would it be better just to call?
  • 5 replies
    • Jaissica
      Jaissica
      Bronze
      Joined: 10.02.2009 Posts: 1,385
      UTG, MP1 and BU all could be playing small pairs or suited connectors;

      CO is unknown and makes a considered raise with two limpers in front; we can reasonably estimate CO's range as TT+ AJ+;

      Hero is OOP with AKo.

      The starting hands chart is correct here. You want to kick the pot and kick it very hard in order to drive out the small pair / suited connector limpers (and in the process create dead money in the pot) while you are still ahead of a good part of CO's possible raising range.

      The very last thing you want to do here is cold call. With two limpers behind you getting 3-1 then 4-1 to re-call it is very likely you would end up in a 5 way pot with a hand that plays well as a raising / heads up hand but quickly loses its value against multiple drawing hands, especially given you are completely OOP and first to act on the flop. If you hit TPGK you are going to be forced to make a 3/4 pot sized bet for protection into any number of potential made trip / 2p or drawing flush draw, str draw hands which means quite often you are going to lose quite a big pot.

      So we raise and raise big because of position (double raise + pot = $1.10 + $1.40 = $2.50 for me here). The real question for this hand is "if you raise and CO 4 bets, do you call?". Thats a marginal decision either way. With a better read on CO you could decide easily (5/5 fold, 30/25 call or even shove). Vs unknown on NL10 I am probably playing 3bet-call.

      edit to correct some numbers.
    • Jaissica
      Jaissica
      Bronze
      Joined: 10.02.2009 Posts: 1,385
      To illustrate, I stoved the situation.

      I gave you AcKd;
      UTG1 22-99
      MP1 22-99
      BU 78s
      CO TT+, ATs+, AJo+

      Under cold calling this scenario the equity becomes -

      Hero 22%
      UTG1, MP1 17.721%
      BU 19.357%
      CO 23.178%

      Your share of the pot is 20% so you have a 2% edge. Throw in being completely OOP and that UTG1, MP1 are only going to proceed with a set, we can easily weigh cold calling here as -EV.

      Or we 3-bet, assuming UTG1, MP1 and BU will fold their speculative hands, equity becomes -

      Hero 55%
      CO 45%

      Suddenly instead of being in a horrible post flop situation we have the edge in a heads up pot where we can be reasonably confident with TPTK. Still OOP but hell, what can you do?

      Assume CO then shoves (pot was $1.40 before you raised to $2.50, leaving you calling $6.32 to win $19.04). We put CO's shove range AKo, QQ+ -

      Hero 38%
      Villain 62%

      As $6.32 is 33.2%, we call with +EV. So 3-bet/shove is our best line in this hand, followed by 3-bet/fold, then fold, and last of all cold call.
    • williamtywong
      williamtywong
      Bronze
      Joined: 19.01.2009 Posts: 123
      Thanks so much for your detailed response. I agree with you that it would be a mistake to cold call. Raising must be the best decision. Just that AK seems to be the devil's hand..hahaha...

      On a side note though, would CO be more likely to fold preflop as opposed to BU, due to squeeze play effect?

      If CO does 4-bet, he's got a pretty full stack. Would it be worthwhile for me to risk a full stack vs. what must be a marginal situation at that point? (probably my AK vs. TT+). I would probably be behind at first, right? Although, there would be dead money in the pot which could make it worthwhile. Assume CO is unknown, which he is here.

      Furthermore, if he 4-bets my raise, would I be in a "push or fold" position?
    • Jaissica
      Jaissica
      Bronze
      Joined: 10.02.2009 Posts: 1,385
      Originally posted by Jaissica

      Assume CO then shoves (pot was $1.40 before you raised to $2.50, leaving you calling $6.32 to win $19.04). We put CO's shove range AKo, QQ+ -

      Hero 38%
      Villain 62%

      As $6.32 is 33.2%, we call with +EV.
      Re your questions about 4-bet.

      Of course we can also choose to fold to the 4-bet if we think CO's shove range to such a big raise preflop is more probably like KK+. If the 4-bet isnt a shove we should either fold or shove, there isnt much point in calling a $5 4-bet when the villain then cant make even a 1/2 pot bet postflop.

      BU is almost certain to fold to a reasonable (pot-sized) 3bet as if they held a good enough hand to play for a third of their entire stack PF they would have made the 3-bet themselves (QQ+, AK).
    • Kaitz20
      Kaitz20
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      Originally posted by Jaissica
      To illustrate, I stoved the situation.

      I gave you AcKd;
      UTG1 22-99
      MP1 22-99
      BU 78s
      CO TT+, ATs+, AJo+

      Under cold calling this scenario the equity becomes -

      Hero 22%
      UTG1, MP1 17.721%
      BU 19.357%
      CO 23.178%

      Your share of the pot is 20% so you have a 2% edge. Throw in being completely OOP and that UTG1, MP1 are only going to proceed with a set, we can easily weigh cold calling here as -EV.

      Or we 3-bet, assuming UTG1, MP1 and BU will fold their speculative hands, equity becomes -

      Hero 55%
      CO 45%

      Suddenly instead of being in a horrible post flop situation we have the edge in a heads up pot where we can be reasonably confident with TPTK. Still OOP but hell, what can you do?

      Assume CO then shoves (pot was $1.40 before you raised to $2.50, leaving you calling $6.32 to win $19.04). We put CO's shove range AKo, QQ+ -

      Hero 38%
      Villain 62%

      As $6.32 is 33.2%, we call with +EV. So 3-bet/shove is our best line in this hand, followed by 3-bet/fold, then fold, and last of all cold call.
      Very nice example. I also like 3-bet pf with AK and player whoś shoving range is AK, QQ+ I´m also calling shove or 5-bet shove if get 4-bet and against that specific player I´m happy to get AK all-in.