Short Stack Strategy: Outs and Odds Question 8

    • ragulka
      ragulka
      Bronze
      Joined: 25.03.2009 Posts: 2
      Hi, I have a question about this question in the article:

      QUESTION 8: The pot is $2. An opponent bets $1 on the flop. You have $1, you'd therefore have to move all-in to continue playing. You are holding a flush draw. Can you profitably call this bet?
      a) yes
      b) no

      QUESTION 8 correct answer is "yes" - Why?

      possible profit = pot + opponents bet,
      in this case $2 + $1 = $3

      I would have to call $1 to see the turn, right?

      And the fulshdraw has 4:1 odds, meaning every 1 time out of 5 times, I win.
      I would win $3 (the profit), but lose $1*4times, that makes -1$ net proft, doesn't it? So how is it possible to call this bet profitably?
  • 13 replies
    • SoyCD
      SoyCD
      Bronze
      Joined: 20.02.2008 Posts: 6,356
      Hello ragulka,

      The trick of the question lies in you needing to go all-in to continue playing. Since you are all-in you don't pay $1 to see the turn - but to see the turn AND the river.

      Best regards
      SoyCD
    • TheBu11d0g
      TheBu11d0g
      Bronze
      Joined: 25.07.2008 Posts: 2,019
      Hi ragulka,

      Answer a) is correct because as you are going to be all-in if you call the bet you will get to see the turn and river cards so then you need to look at the flushdraw odds for 2 streets which are 2:1 making it profitable to call.

      Hope this helps.

      Regards,
      -Steve
    • ragulka
      ragulka
      Bronze
      Joined: 25.03.2009 Posts: 2
      Alright, now I get it. Mathematically id just didn't add up :D I mean, I had no idea that I would need to count the river as well :D
    • Mehjia
      Mehjia
      Bronze
      Joined: 23.01.2009 Posts: 31
      I dont understand why you have 2:1 (50%) chances to catch the flush , 9 cards help you , 9 of 46 that is 19% , 19*2 = 36-37 % , so why 50% ?
    • kingdippy2008
      kingdippy2008
      Bronze
      Joined: 30.08.2008 Posts: 2,107
      Its not 2 divided by 1 (or other way round) its 2:1 which means 2 out of 3 and 1 out of 3.
      On average 2 times you wont hit and 1 you will :)

      So 1/3 of the time you will hit which is roughly 33% of the time ;)
    • TheBu11d0g
      TheBu11d0g
      Bronze
      Joined: 25.07.2008 Posts: 2,019
      Originally posted by kingdippy2008
      Its not 2 divided by 1 (or other way round) its 2:1 which means 2 out of 3 and 1 out of 3.
      On average 2 times you wont hit and 1 you will :)

      So 1/3 of the time you will hit which is roughly 33% of the time ;)
      couldn't have said it better me old mucker lol

      Regards,
      -Steve
    • Mehjia
      Mehjia
      Bronze
      Joined: 23.01.2009 Posts: 31
      ok i get it know , so 1:1 its 50% and 4:1 it's 20%
    • malook
      malook
      Bronze
      Joined: 29.03.2009 Posts: 11
      Dont know if it of any help, but my background as a bookmaker has shown me that the best way to look at odds is in the European Decimal format. so 4:1 becomes 5.00. Then the equation is as simple as 1/odds, to get your %.

      Malook
    • malook
      malook
      Bronze
      Joined: 29.03.2009 Posts: 11
      Also, then to see if it is +EV all you do is multiply the odds value by the odds you are getting.

      So for this example you are getting 33.3333..% for your 5.00 shot.

      So you do 5.00 * 33.33..%

      If the aswer is above 1.00 then you have value to play. The more it is above 1.00 then the more value you have.

      The answer for the above is 1.66ish, so nice value :)

      Malook
    • TheBu11d0g
      TheBu11d0g
      Bronze
      Joined: 25.07.2008 Posts: 2,019
      Hey malook,

      I think your calculation of the answer may be incorrect as its only a 20% chance and not a 33% chance.

      1 / 5 = 0.20

      5 * 0.20 = 1

      Regards,
      -Steve
    • malook
      malook
      Bronze
      Joined: 29.03.2009 Posts: 11
      Originally posted by TheBu11d0g
      Hey malook,

      I think your calculation of the answer may be incorrect as its only a 20% chance and not a 33% chance.

      1 / 5 = 0.20

      5 * 0.20 = 1

      Regards,
      -Steve
      Hi Steve

      In the OP he said he had a 2:1 chance of winning, which is where the 33.333% came from. I was just showing how you see whether the play is value, by using the 33.33% and the odds of 5.00.

      e.g. 5.00 * 0.33 = 1.65ish

      Cheers
      malook
    • malook
      malook
      Bronze
      Joined: 29.03.2009 Posts: 11
      Hi Steve

      Now looking my original post was a bit poorly worded.

      He had 2:1 for his hand, and 4:1 for his pot.

      2:1 = 3.00 = 33.333%
      4:1 = 5.00 = 20%

      I was just saying that he can calculate his edge, by using the % for the hand * the odds for the pot.

      Sorry for the confusion :)

      malook
    • TheBu11d0g
      TheBu11d0g
      Bronze
      Joined: 25.07.2008 Posts: 2,019
      Hi malook,

      Sorry for my misunderstanding mate. I understand it completely now :D

      Regards,
      -Steve