Calldown question

    • Anakha
      Anakha
      Bronze
      Joined: 23.05.2006 Posts: 92
      I was talking to blinzler about calldowns a few days ago and put some time to the article, but since math comes from venus and I come from mars (or is that the other way around? :) ), I'm a little (read totally) lost with the formula as presented.

      This belongs in the intermediate forum, but since I can't acces these at the moment...

      This is what I thought while reading the article:

      1. Estimate opponents likely hand ranges, estimate the percentage that you are ahead on average.
      2. Calculate the pot at showdown, calculate your expectation value.
      3. Estimate the cost of the calldown.
      4. If the cost is less than your share of the pot it's a calldown, otherwise it's a fold.

      Seems logical :) , did I miss or oversee anything?
  • 3 replies
    • Blinzler
      Blinzler
      Bronze
      Joined: 04.03.2005 Posts: 7,456
      it is almost correct, but you are missing one aspect. I don't know if it is covered in the article but you can't forget your outs and your opponents outs. The equation for in position hu calldown would be:
      pot at the river:2 pot odds => convert to % to compare with your equity
      equity= times you are ahead%+times you outdraw your opponent%+ times he outdraws you%
      If equity bigger than your cost compared to the pot it is a calldown.
      Example: Pot is 7BB we are in position and have to call 2 bets. We are ahead 30% and we have 2 outs when behind, villain has 5 outs against us when we are ahead.
      Pot at the river = 8BB
      we have to pay = 2BB
      odds on the calldown of 8:2 = 4:1 = 20%
      This means we have to win more than 20% of the times
      We win: 30% + (2/46)*100 - (5/46)*100 = 23.5%
      We win more than our fair share, thus we call down. Hope that helped.
    • Anakha
      Anakha
      Bronze
      Joined: 23.05.2006 Posts: 92
      Hmm yes, that definitely complicates the formula, I do think I understand what you mean though it took a few reads :) .

      Essentially it's comparing the odds of the calldown to our equity.
      But I considered it purely based on the likely handranges without taking improvement on either side into the equition, which I can understand is essential for a good equity calculation.

      The formula is though for me though, I'll have to play around a bit with it.


      PS pulled a late nighter? :)
    • Blinzler
      Blinzler
      Bronze
      Joined: 04.03.2005 Posts: 7,456
      yeah, got home at like 3:30 and wasn't tired (kinda like today :D )
      the equation i wrote thus is a little difficult, i have to see if i can write it a little easier, but not right now. ;)