[NL2-NL10] A6s CO - FD + OC

  • 10 replies
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello!

      Preflop: OK.
      Flop: Bet/Fold.

      Best regards,
      Rensu
    • TheBrood
      TheBrood
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.07.2008 Posts: 4,383
      Originally posted by veriz
      Hello!

      Preflop: OK.
      Flop: Bet/Fold.

      Best regards,
      Rensu
      Can't I call here? I see him as a fish and put him on a pair...
    • williamtywong
      williamtywong
      Bronze
      Joined: 19.01.2009 Posts: 123
      you have poor odds even if he only has a pair.

      you have 9 outs for the flush, and possibly 2 outs for A. however, imo I think A might be discounted because BU might call you with Ax.

      either way, I think it's still around 4:1

      your pot equity is $4.90(to win):$3.15(to call) = ~ 1.50:1

      so, in the long run, this situation would be unprofitable for you if you call.
    • Fongie
      Fongie
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.12.2006 Posts: 4,978
      Equilator, my friends =)

      Our pot odds are 1.5:1 which means we need 40% breakeven equity.

      Equity Win Tie Loss Hand
      Player 1: 43,899 % 43,899 % 0,000 % 56,101 % As6s
      Player 2: 56,101 % 56,101 % 0,000 % 43,899 % K2s+, J2s+, 82s+, K2o+, J2o+, 82o+

      Against this range of all pairs + 2pairs we have almost 44%. I call :]
      It's good practice to try to do these calculations yourself before you post the hand :)
    • williamtywong
      williamtywong
      Bronze
      Joined: 19.01.2009 Posts: 123
      Our pot odds are 1.5:1 which means we need 40% breakeven equity.


      This is one of those concepts that I dont' really understand. How do I calculate this 40% number from 1.5:1?
    • TheBrood
      TheBrood
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.07.2008 Posts: 4,383
      Originally posted by williamtywong
      Our pot odds are 1.5:1 which means we need 40% breakeven equity.


      This is one of those concepts that I dont' really understand. How do I calculate this 40% number from 1.5:1?
      1.5+1.0=2.5
      1.0/2.5=0.40

      so its like paying $1 into a $1.50 pot to recieve $2.50 if you win

      in the hand in question I pay $3.15 to recieve $8.05 if I win: 3.15/8.05=0.39=39% pot odds.

      against a pair I have 9 flush outs + 3 aces = 12 outs = aprox 49% chance to win on river.
    • williamtywong
      williamtywong
      Bronze
      Joined: 19.01.2009 Posts: 123
      ahh..ic.

      but how does this differ from the use of pot odds? what is the difference between using this breakeven equity, and using pot odds. which one do i use in which situation then?

      i mean..with pot odds..would be 1.50:1 and a fold, right?
    • TheBrood
      TheBrood
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.07.2008 Posts: 4,383
      Originally posted by williamtywong
      ahh..ic.

      but how does this differ from the use of pot odds? what is the difference between using this breakeven equity, and using pot odds. which one do i use in which situation then?

      i mean..with pot odds..would be 1.50:1 and a fold, right?
      I get confused sometimes too, but my system works so I will keep to it for now =P
    • Jaissica
      Jaissica
      Bronze
      Joined: 10.02.2009 Posts: 1,385
      I think some of the confusion here is that Brood is not paying for 1 card, he is paying for two. The FD alone gives 35% wins here, assuming its clean. That means your pot odds are okay to call already at just under 3-2 / 1.5-1 (40%), and thats assuming As are dirty outs. The call was 39.13%, so its only slightly negative EV if the As are completely discounted.

      If we assume As are potentially clean outs (villain has 1p and no A or an unimproved PP) we improve to a clear +EV as we have 45% chance to improve by the river with 12 outs.

      For me im quite happy with this call. As only need to be clean half of the time to make this a +EV call.

      45% - 35% = 10%
      10% / req dif for neutral EV (5%) = 2
      1/2 = 50%
    • williamtywong
      williamtywong
      Bronze
      Joined: 19.01.2009 Posts: 123
      I think some of the confusion here is that Brood is not paying for 1 card, he is paying for two.


      you're right, I didnt' take that into consideration. thanks for clearing that up.