[NL2-NL10] NL50 SSS JJ vs limpcall vs squeze?

    • mafaz
      Joined: 07.12.2007 Posts: 222
      Known players:

      0.25/0.5 No-Limit Hold'em (9 handed)
      Hand recorder used for this poker hand: PokerStrategy Elephant 0.67 by www.pokerstrategy.com.

      Preflop: Hero is UTG2 with J:diamond: , J:club:
      UTG1 calls $0.50, Hero raises to $2.25, MP1 calls $2.25, MP2 folds, MP3 raises to $8.00, 5 folds, Hero raises to $10.00 (All-In), MP1 raises to $40.95 (All-In), MP3 calls $18.20 (All-In), MP1 gets uncalled bet back.

      Flop: ($63.65) 7:heart: , 8:club: , 5:club:
      Turn: ($63.65) 5:heart:
      River: ($63.65) K:heart: (1 players)

      Final Pot: $63.65

      Results follow (highlight to see):
      Hero shows two pairs, jacks and fives (Jd Jc)
      MP3 shows two pairs, kings and fives (Ad Ks)
      MP1 shows two pairs, aces and fives (Ac Ah)

      MP1 wins with two pairs, aces and fives (Ac Ah)

      I wanted to post this hand because i wonder how to play when you are being squeezed.

      MP1 is clearly a fish and got lucky in here. Well fish is always lucky when you have the hand and all of the sudden they have a better one :D

      Anyway maybe a bad example, but there is a lot of squeezing going around on NL50 and i wonder how should we shortstackers play when we are being squeezed.
  • 2 replies
    • wuusaa
      Joined: 15.05.2007 Posts: 455
      you must pay 7,75$ for a expected pot of 22$ (we can't exactly guess the potsize, because we dont know who calls the push)

      anyway: 7,75 / 22 = 0,35
      you need 35% equity to push profitable

      if you treat mp1 as dead money,
      $ give mp3 a realistic range of AK/JJ.
      you have 36,6% against this range

      so it's a push.

      if mp1 also calls the push, it gets even more profitable because of the extra money & because you are way ahead of mp1's range.
    • Gerv
      Joined: 07.05.2008 Posts: 17,678
      Hi Mafaz,

      @ Wuusaa, did you included rake into this equation? if not, then it becomes a marginal push in my opinion.

      As you got 978 hands on him, one can get a 3bet % by clicking on the popupstats. But mostly this 3bet % doesnt exceed the 4% (=AK+,JJ+)

      If 3bet % is <2% (AKs+,QQ+) then I muck JJ based on the odds/outs equity calculation

      Best regards,