# [NL2-NL10] Nl100 KTs

• Bronze
Joined: 07.05.2008
No-Limit Hold'em, \$1.00 BB (8 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

saw flop

CO (\$126)
Button (\$18.50)
SB (\$20.60)
Hero (BB) (\$18.50)
UTG (\$100)
UTG+1 (\$126.65)
MP1 (\$100)
MP2 (\$71.90)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 10, K
4 folds, CO bets \$3, 1 fold, SB calls \$2.50, Hero?

I see SB as pure dead money so I only have to worry about CO giving him a calling range of a funky 99+,AJs+,AQo+, my equity is 33.717%

Now solving
EV = FE*Current pot + (1-FE)*[(Current pot + Remaining stack)*Equity - (1-Equity)*Remaining stack]

EV = 66.3%*\$7 +33.7%*{{[\$7+\$17.5]*33.717%]] - \$17.5*(66.3%}}
EV = \$4.611 + 33.7%* { \$8.26 - \$11.6 }
EV = \$4.611 + -\$1.1255
EV = +\$3.5

Can I assume then that I'play +EV if I shove here without worrying SB? Is my calling range like decent since I only have <100 hands on him?

- Gerv
• 4 replies
• Bronze
Joined: 15.05.2007
Co will never fold over 50% here i think.
his stats look very loose

i calculate a more realistic scenario i think...
CO stealrange: 30%
foldequity: 50% -> he calls your squeeze with 15% [22+, A7s+, KJs+, A9o+, KJo+]

EV= 0,5*7\$ + 0,5*[(20\$* 0,38) - (0,62*17,5\$)
EV= + 1,88
• Bronze
Joined: 07.05.2008
So my mistake in the calculation was that I saw the FE as {1-equity} ??

So there can be lik 33% equity for me and 50% FE thus leaving 100%-83% = 17% doing ''nothing'' ?
• Bronze
Joined: 02.01.2007
I think there's a small mistake in your equation:

you count 7\$+17.5\$ = 24.5\$ as your possible postflop winnings. imo you just can win 18.5\$ from CO, 2.5BB from SB and 1BB from BB which is 22\$.
so you count something two times.

i use this one:
EV = Pot*Foldequity + (1-Foldequity)[(eff.Stack+Deadmoney)*Equity – (eff.Stack*(1-Equity))]

with:

pot: 7
eff. stack: 18.5
dm: 3.5
equity 33.7 and FE 66.3as you proposed. (

my EV = 3,01\$

regards,
xarry
• Basic
Joined: 11.07.2008
i dont think you have enough fe here or lets say it will never be massiv plus ev and 22 hands are no sample size.