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[NL2-NL10] Nl100 KTs

    • Gerv
      Gerv
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.05.2008 Posts: 17,678
      No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (8 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

      saw flop



      CO ($126)
      Button ($18.50)
      SB ($20.60)
      Hero (BB) ($18.50)
      UTG ($100)
      UTG+1 ($126.65)
      MP1 ($100)
      MP2 ($71.90)

      Preflop: Hero is BB with 10, K
      4 folds, CO bets $3, 1 fold, SB calls $2.50, Hero?


      I see SB as pure dead money so I only have to worry about CO giving him a calling range of a funky 99+,AJs+,AQo+, my equity is 33.717%

      Now solving
      EV = FE*Current pot + (1-FE)*[(Current pot + Remaining stack)*Equity - (1-Equity)*Remaining stack]

      EV = 66.3%*$7 +33.7%*{{[$7+$17.5]*33.717%]] - $17.5*(66.3%}}
      EV = $4.611 + 33.7%* { $8.26 - $11.6 }
      EV = $4.611 + -$1.1255
      EV = +$3.5

      Can I assume then that I'play +EV if I shove here without worrying SB? Is my calling range like decent since I only have <100 hands on him?

      - Gerv
  • 4 replies
    • wuusaa
      wuusaa
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.05.2007 Posts: 455
      SB = deadmoney!
      Co will never fold over 50% here i think.
      his stats look very loose

      i calculate a more realistic scenario i think...
      CO stealrange: 30%
      foldequity: 50% -> he calls your squeeze with 15% [22+, A7s+, KJs+, A9o+, KJo+]

      EV= 0,5*7$ + 0,5*[(20$* 0,38) - (0,62*17,5$)
      EV= + 1,88
    • Gerv
      Gerv
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.05.2008 Posts: 17,678
      So my mistake in the calculation was that I saw the FE as {1-equity} ??

      So there can be lik 33% equity for me and 50% FE thus leaving 100%-83% = 17% doing ''nothing'' ?
    • xarry2
      xarry2
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.01.2007 Posts: 834
      I think there's a small mistake in your equation:

      you count 7$+17.5$ = 24.5$ as your possible postflop winnings. imo you just can win 18.5$ from CO, 2.5BB from SB and 1BB from BB which is 22$.
      so you count something two times.

      i use this one:
      EV = Pot*Foldequity + (1-Foldequity)[(eff.Stack+Deadmoney)*Equity – (eff.Stack*(1-Equity))]

      with:

      pot: 7
      eff. stack: 18.5
      dm: 3.5
      equity 33.7 and FE 66.3as you proposed. (

      my EV = 3,01$


      regards,
      xarry
    • ysessa
      ysessa
      Basic
      Joined: 11.07.2008 Posts: 1,331
      i dont think you have enough fe here or lets say it will never be massiv plus ev and 22 hands are no sample size.