Just how long do downswings last?

    • Ejeckt
      Ejeckt
      Bronze
      Joined: 06.12.2008 Posts: 517
      Can someone take a look at this graph and tell me if this is normal SnG variance or a downswing? I've been heavily reviewing my play in SnGWiz, attending all coachings, I've read all the articles and watched the videos, read 2 SnG books, I play no more than 2-3 tables at a time... I feel like I'm doing all the things right, and making the right ICM moves - but being a relatively new player, and never having gone through a loss like this on any other site (have I just been lucky so far or what), I don't know what to make of this :/

      I know there are not many SnG's in this sample.. but I just recently started on iPoker. My FL Hold'Em winnings have boosted my bankroll enough to permit me not to have to move down a limit... albeit I didn't exactly move up a limit either :/

      The last 300 or so tournaments took me 3 weeks to do :/ and 3 weeks of losses really tend to wear me down...

      Sigh, I think I just need a break from poker. I seem to have developed a bad attitude and I'm putting too much weight on results, aren't I?

  • 7 replies
    • PidKoker
      PidKoker
      Global
      Joined: 03.06.2008 Posts: 416
      I am no professional at SnGs but swings can be big up to -50BI on turbos,, I see that you said your winning at FL ... my preference is on cash games I find them more profitable myself (even though I built my starting capital by grinding small stakes SnGs).. If you are a winning player at FL I suggest maybe playing there full time as there is alot of good FL players here in the English section you will get alot of help if it is needed.
    • LuborC
      LuborC
      Bronze
      Joined: 20.04.2008 Posts: 1,243
      Hi Ejeckt,

      I don't know if it's normal since I have only been playing for a few months seriously but I'm experiencing something similar to what you're experiencing. I have built my bankroll to 4000$ over 3 months and then suddenly lost 400$ in March playing the same way.
      I just can't seem to win a thing no matter what I do. I don't really have any answers I'm just saying you're not the only one who has been losing for ridiculous periods of time. I hope this is normal and that things will turn for the better again.
    • ukcoolcat
      ukcoolcat
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 167
      good question, to which we'd all like an answer!

      i'm currently playing .5/.10 fr fl on mansion and am going thorugh a bad downswing, over approx 50k hands i was winning 2.5bb/hh, then i hit my downswing, it's been lasting approx a week and i'm more than 250bb down, i've revised some of my play and i am playing the same a s i was before, just running into bigger sets, full houses etc etc etc, i used to think that fulltilt and party were suckout sites, but mansion is way out ahead in my book, today i lost 17 times out of 20 to someone hitting that MIRACLE card on the river, frustrating? definitely, can i handle it? struggling at the moment, but i'm sure it'll end sometime!!!
    • 8979687
      8979687
      Bronze
      Joined: 11.11.2008 Posts: 2,225
      I play $6.50s and I am down more then 200 bucks in this current downswing.

      30+ buy in downswing the worst I have faced yet.

      However, I remember reading before, I forget who said it maybe Negreanu
      But you can easily expect to have an entire month long losing session,
      and occasionally you can expect a 2 month long losing session, but if it is
      going on beyond 2 months, something may be wrong with your game.
    • viewer88
      viewer88
      Bronze
      Joined: 19.04.2008 Posts: 5,545
      can't really make conclusions over such a small samplesize imo.

      Did you get hit in the head around sng 300?
    • Ejeckt
      Ejeckt
      Bronze
      Joined: 06.12.2008 Posts: 517
      Originally posted by viewer88
      can't really make conclusions over such a small samplesize imo.

      Did you get hit in the head around sng 300?
      Probably :D It all seems kinda hazy, if you know what I mean... :P :D

      Thanks for all comments chaps.

      Well this is my first real downswing. I mean real in the sense that I can really feel it's impact - not like a losing session or two, which is the worst thing I've had in the past. Just never thought that losing like this could be so incredibly frustrating! Sigh. But I guess it's not that bad... well, not compared to the kind of downswings some of you, or other, even really good players have had.

      For inspiration I took a look at Boku87's sharkscope PS stats, and saw that between his 10k'th and 21k'th tournament about, he was on some downswing that cleared pretty much all of his SnG profits, which was about $10000. I think I'd seriously go crazy if that kind of thing happened to me :p But... well, if he could get through that... I'm sure that there's some hope for me.
    • Jaissica
      Jaissica
      Bronze
      Joined: 10.02.2009 Posts: 1,385
      On the upside, your graph shows an decent heater from 80-150 games then a massive heater from 290-300 games. Remember that kind of swing goes both ways. Overall you might now be at the point where "luck" has just evened out from those hot streaks! (Depressing, isnt it?)

      If you find you are playing result-based instead of action-based poker then yeah, take a break until you can get back into the correct frame of mind. We need to be happy when our AA is cracked by KK for a stack (or in your case, on the bubble), not get upset, because we made the right play.