This site uses cookies to improve your browsing experience. By continuing to browse the website, you accept such cookies. For more details and to change your settings, see our Cookie Policy and Privacy Policy. Close

Can Beat the Rake ?

  • 7 replies
    • tonypmm
      tonypmm
      Silver
      Joined: 11.01.2009 Posts: 5,486
      I think multitable super-KOs require to spend a lot of hours on developing a specific strategy because the bounties are collected very fast - the more time passes, the fewer bounties are still available in the SNG - and so the value of each chip in the stack diminishes quickly down to half of the initial value, making it necessary to play LAG, using the stack to fight for bounties while it's still possible to only risk ~500 chips for a chance to collect one.

      When around half of the initial players are left (18 players in a 36-man, etc.), ICM starts mattering, and the ranges start depending a lot on how many stacks you're covering (of those players who're still to act) - the shortest stacks need to play tight until the big blind grows up to 20%+ of the stack, whereas the chipleader often encounters spots when they have to go all-in with any 2 cards (that includes cases when someone with a relatively short stack for that phase of the game, like 500-700 chips, shoves into them).

      ROI figures are kept private because this SNG format is less than 3 years old, and the regs aren't willing to share the info, and neither am I, in order not to draw more regs into the game while it's still good.

      I know one Russian reg of the $10-25 games but don't know his ROI. He's quite satisfied with the games, though.

      So you have to study this SNG format on your own, no one is going to spoonfeed you with the strategy. The format has a very high entry cost in terms of how many BIs one needs to spend to figure out how to beat the game, because one has to gather a large database to see what the population tendencies are and how to play optimally in the presence of unknown opponents, that's why it has relatively few regs yet.

      If you succeed, your hourly winrate will be very good. If you fail, you'll lose hundreds of BIs, so don't make your livelihood rely on this SNG format until you discover a winning strategy; instead, play your normal poker games most of the time while experimenting with the super-KOs occasionally. If you don't study the ins and outs in advance, failure is very likely.
    • tonypmm
      tonypmm
      Silver
      Joined: 11.01.2009 Posts: 5,486
      In case you meant single-table 9-man KOs, they're a rather old SNG format, and it's been known for years that they're more profitable than non-KO 9-mans but require specific deep study with ICM calculators too. One of the 9-man KO regs, guudfella87, revealed on Collin Moshman's stream that he had a 13% ROI at the $7s (that was in 2015, before the BI levels were changed from $1.5-3.5-7-15-30-60 to $1-3-5-10-25-50).

      But because you were worried about the rake, I assumed you meant multitable hypers - the rake has never been a big problem at non-hypers.
    • tonypmm
      tonypmm
      Silver
      Joined: 11.01.2009 Posts: 5,486
      Speaking of my own experience at 9-man KOs, I did try them this Xmas, and even though there's obviously more fish per table at the holiday season than at any other time of the year, I think there's still enough of it now.

      I didn't count regs precisely, but it felt like that, out of the 8 opponents at the table, on average, there were 3-4 regs at the $5s and 2-3 at the $3s. On non-Xmas weekends, there's likely 1 extra reg per table. But I don't have a Sharkystrator license currently, so I didn't select tables thoroughly. Another pleasant thing to note is that the fish tends to be really disinhibited in the KOs, even the 9-man ones (and the 90-man ones too).

      On balance, 9-man KOs seem a relatively safe way of earning money, especially the regular speed ones, where you can wait for premium hands to get maximum value from loose callers when you have a short stack (bearing in mind that the other regs will do the same when they're shorter than you); but you do need to work with calculators beforehand, preferably with HoldemResources with future game simulation as deep as your hardware allows (the latest beta even supports GPUs).
    • MisterHorace
      MisterHorace
      Bronze
      Joined: 12.11.2013 Posts: 178
      Thank you for your answers and explanations.

      We will try to grow the 9 mans to 1 $ if it goes well, I'll go to 3 dollars ;)

      I am going to write a blog to tell you about my progress.
    • SDK1987
      SDK1987
      Moderator
      Moderator
      Joined: 12.11.2008 Posts: 42,790
      Just checking this, but ROI of higher than 0 is a profit.
      You need to count the rake in your investment. Otherwise you get the wrong info.
      I think you could reach an ROI of 10% if you are a decent winning reg on this games.

      Cheers,
      SDK1987
    • MisterHorace
      MisterHorace
      Bronze
      Joined: 12.11.2013 Posts: 178
      Originally posted by SDK1987

      I think you could reach an ROI of 10% if you are a decent winning reg on this games.

      Cheers,
      SDK1987
      For the moment I played 469 SNG for a profit of + 61.55 $ with a ROI of 13.12%
    • tonypmm
      tonypmm
      Silver
      Joined: 11.01.2009 Posts: 5,486
      Originally posted by SDK1987
      I think you could reach an ROI of 10% if you are a decent winning reg on this games.
      Specifically $1 turbo KO 9-mans are softer because they're the default selection in the KO Poker tab in Stars' client, so they tend to attract some first-time players who're too impatient to change lobby filters - to load a $1 turbo KO 9-man, one only needs to click on the KO tab and on the 'Play Now' button. Hence I do believe in the 13% ROI, even in 2019. There are a couple of Russian community bloggers (Turner77 and AHTOCuK) who're currently beating $3-5 KO 9-mans for decent ROIs as well.

      In the first 25 days of the year, AHTOCuK (pronounced as 'Antosik') earned ~$850 (with an EV of ~$1030) in 2501 games (according to his Russian comm. challenge graph) for an EV ROI of ~13% playing a lot of tables with an ABI of a bit more than $3.