[NL2-NL10] NL10 22 set on the flop

    • Volrath89
      Volrath89
      Bronze
      Joined: 23.07.2008 Posts: 2,170
      Known players:
      Position:
      Stack
      BB:
      $2,00
      UTG2:
      $10,00
      MP2:
      $5,10
      Hero:
      $10,30

      0,05/0,1 No-Limit Hold'em (8 handed)
      Hand recorder used for this poker hand: PokerStrategy Elephant 0.67 by www.pokerstrategy.com.

      Preflop: Hero is BU with 2:diamond: , 2:club:
      UTG2 calls $0,10, MP1 folds, MP2 calls $0,10, 2 folds, Hero calls $0,10, SB folds, BB checks.

      Flop: ($0,45) K:spade: , 8:diamond: , 2:spade: (4 players)
      BB checks, UTG2 bets $0,35, MP2 calls $0,35, Hero raises to $1,00, 3 folds, Hero gets uncalled bet back.

      Final Pot: $1,50

      Flop: After the 0.35 raise and the call, I thought I had to raise about potsize for protection agains flushdraws, right? or i could have called and slowplayed my set?
  • 14 replies
    • Jaissica
      Jaissica
      Bronze
      Joined: 10.02.2009 Posts: 1,385
      UTG2 has charged an appropriate protection amount for a FD with his own raise (35c into a 45c pot). You can then either try and take the pot down / make flushers chase stupid odds by re-raising, *or* just call along, hope for another appropriate sized raise from UTG2 and call from MP2 and be prepared to consider releasing your hand if a spade hits on the turn or river.

      It is possible that you pushed UTG2 off something like TPBK or MP and could have got another bet out of him if a suitable turn came then attacked the pot there instead. Its your choice to decide if you want to win a $1.15 pot safely or risk a 20% chance of having to let it go to try and score another $1 or so by saving your play-back for the turn (assuming an appropriate-sized bet into what would be a $1.40 pot).

      Id probably call-along the flop then attack the turn if there was no spade. If a spade came I would consider the bet size playing either check-call or check-fold. If MP2 got aggressive to a spade on the turn you can expect he holds the flush. With our outs we can decide to call or fold depending on his bet size (we would hold 10 outs to FH/4oak on the river).

      Ideal situation would be you call along and the eight of spades hits the board on the turn. Then the flush-drawing MP2 will go mostly broke against your full house.
    • Fongie
      Fongie
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.12.2006 Posts: 4,978
      $1 is too small, I would make it $1.5. They get pretty good odds when you just raise to 1.

      No there is absolutely no option here to slowplay your set.
    • Jaissica
      Jaissica
      Bronze
      Joined: 10.02.2009 Posts: 1,385
      Of course there is :) So long as your willing to let go to a flush.
    • Fongie
      Fongie
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.12.2006 Posts: 4,978
      I want value and protection. And you will get value from a flushdraw, and a made hand right there on the flop - not afterwards. This hand could very well be an example-hand of "When not to slowplay"

      If you have any doubts in regards to this, I suggest you get yourself to gold status and read the article on "Slowplay". This article should be silver tbh..
    • Jaissica
      Jaissica
      Bronze
      Joined: 10.02.2009 Posts: 1,385
      I look at it from this angle -

      80% of the time by just calling on the flop then attacking the turn, assuming UTG2 will second barrel his draw or top pair (4.5 AF and is not cbetting, so its a reasonable assumption) we win the called pot ($1.5) plus a reasonable turn bet ($1.0) and even a possible called turn bet from MP2 (another $1).

      20% of the time we lose the called pot ($1.5) because the turn is a spade and we have to either release it or call along looking to FH. I am working on an assumption of releasing it as we dont expect to get calling odds for a 10-out redraw.

      80% - win $2.5 (assuming no call from MP2)
      20% - lose $1.5 (spade falls)

      So we make $1.70 average when we just call-along and release to a flush; we only make $1.15 by taking the pot down on the turn.

      Even better if the board should be so kind as to pair up UTG2's TP or pair up on a flush delivery then we will surely get stacks for our FH vs exposed trips / flush.

      I think this is a great opportunity to just call along as the villain has charged an appropriate protection price already. If TP is protecting for you, why re-raise him and make him scared of a flopped set? Do it on the turn when there is so much more money in the pot that its harder for him to release.


      Edit - remember I am looking at this only from a situation where an OOP player has opened on the flop. I am not saying play check-call OOP, or to check down and give away free cards. I am saying that with another player making the protection bets for you, why push them off their TP or draw? Why not let them overpay to draw or continue to "protect" their worthless TP, and attack them on the turn instead? We are almost certainly in front and almost certainly can only lose to a flush.

      There are far more turn cards we will like to see than turn cards we will not like. No straight can complete, so the only cards we dont like are all spades except 8 (8 cards). That leaves 39 cards that we WILL like and every one of them has the potential to win us more money and get us more bettors / callers on the turn (repairs, 2-pairing villains, giving villains bad straight draws).
    • Fongie
      Fongie
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.12.2006 Posts: 4,978
      Well, you can have your opinion, but I suggest you watch some videos and attend some coachings to understand the concept of protection and value (since you can't reach the articles yet) :)

      Good articles to read will be:
      Value Maximization
      ("Protection is nothing more than value maximization.")
      Slowplay
      ("Important in this regard (when allowing freecards), is the condition that your own hand still beats the improved hand of the opponent. If this is not the case, then you have made a mistake and allowed your opponent to correctly draw a better hand. ")

      Keyword here is that by just calling this flop you let your opponents play correctly, when you want them to make a mistake - instead you make the mistake by allowing them to draw for the correct odds.
    • Jaissica
      Jaissica
      Bronze
      Joined: 10.02.2009 Posts: 1,385
      No, because the correct odds are below what the villain charged by opening for 35c.

      I think you are confusing slowplay by giving free cards with call along. id be very happy for one of the other judges to comment here because im absolutely certain that my analysis above comparing call-along to avoid pushing the other players out of the pot is accurate.

      Edit - chance of a flush hit that doesnt book you is 8 outs. 8/47 = 17%

      35c x3 + 45c = $1.60, or 21%

      The three way pot screws up pokerstove a bit because its giving odds for turn and river but even then to see BOTH cards the flush drawing villain only has about 27%, and thats 3-way. 25% two way.

      Raising that flop is the safe, low varience option but definantly not the best +EV. Your opponent is already making a mistake calling and if you hit a card that suits you are going to break him wide open. If you run into a spade you fold and so be it, you gave up a buck 17% of the time to make a 2nd barrel from kx and a possible 2nd call from spades 83% of the time.
    • Maniatrix
      Maniatrix
      Bronze
      Joined: 01.11.2008 Posts: 674
      Easy raise, this is not a board to be slowplaying.
    • Jaissica
      Jaissica
      Bronze
      Joined: 10.02.2009 Posts: 1,385
      Originally posted by Maniatrix
      Easy raise, this is not a board to be slowplaying.

      Until someone gives a reason behind this statement im afraid I just cant buy it. The math on profitably playing call-along is solid to mine eyes at the moment.
    • Fongie
      Fongie
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.12.2006 Posts: 4,978
      Once again, get to gold and read the articles =) a similar board and actions to this is even given as the primary example of when not to slowplay, and I'm afraid I cannot give any more reasons than I already have :) Slowplaying here is simply bad play. As Maniatrix put it, this is an easy raise for value and protection.

      If you play your sets with the primary goal of winning $2.5 87% of the time, then you have a leak here. With a set you want to play for stacks, and the only way of doing this is by raising the flop.
      (ah I was supposed to not give any more reasons, but w/e :tongue: )
    • Jaissica
      Jaissica
      Bronze
      Joined: 10.02.2009 Posts: 1,385
      Im like a dog with a bone, I just cant let this go.

      Surely somewhere in those gold articles it is mentioned that you shouldnt be only playing your hand. You should be playing both your hand, your opponents hand and considering what your opponent thinks you have.

      Preflop was a limp around. This is a critical point that I believe you are missing. If it was a raised pot and UTG2 was PFA we could give credit for a big king who will probably pay our re-raise and play straight up aiming to shove the flop or turn.

      BUT we already know UTG2 is loose, aggressive and not a big limper (27/25), so most big king hands UTG is certainly raising with (AK KQ KJ). We know MP2 is a loosey limping big blind dispenser who could play that line with anything from a ten high to a flush draw to three kings.

      So we put UTG on having a small piece of the board (possible a bad king, more likely a paired 8 on a 78s or 89s, possibly a FD, possibly complete air), while MP2 we basically ignore. Why push UTG2 off his attack on the pot? Far from not wanting him to catch, we absolutely want him to catch 2p / exposed trips / anything at all (except that flush) to draw a second barrel. MP2 might call or fold or whatever, who cares, youd play MP2 for stacks with TPTK anyway, much less a set.

      The math stacks up. The reason given "because we want to play for stacks with sets" doesnt carry alot of weight here as it shows we are only playing our hand, not our opponents hands. What hands do you expect an otherwise reasonable player to limp then stack off for here? K8? K2? 82? The only way you are getting UTG2 to stack off is if he has 88, because I think he isnt silly enough to limp any 2p hand.


      Edit - if you cant reply because you need to protect gold content, nps.
    • Fongie
      Fongie
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.12.2006 Posts: 4,978
      I'll ask Tribun to check it out, he might convince you (or maybe tell me if I'm wrong) :) I'm not sure how much I'm allowed to quote from the gold articles, but I think I said enough :P
    • TribunCaesar
      TribunCaesar
      Bronze
      Joined: 29.04.2007 Posts: 13,264
      Pretty much a standard hand. You have bottom set vs 2 opponents and need to preotect vs the flushdraw. Furthermore: You want to build a pot, you can achieve both things by raising. I don't like slowplaying here because a spade could mean you are beat or it will slow down the action and allow your opponents to fold a top pair if they don't have the flush.

      raise>>>>>>> all

      Best regards,
      TribunCaesar
    • Jumbles
      Jumbles
      Bronze
      Joined: 06.10.2007 Posts: 190
      You don't have to be gold to watch this: http://www.pokerstrategy.com/video/2453.

      Slowplaying at NL10 is discussed several times throughout the course of the video.