[NL2-NL10] NL5 SH KK rivered set

    • koaesica
      koaesica
      Bronze
      Joined: 31.08.2008 Posts: 1,066
      Known players:
      Position:
      Stack
      BB:
      $4,76
      Hero:
      $6,37
      BU:
      $5,40

      0,02/0,05 No-Limit Hold'em (6 handed)
      Hand recorder used for this poker hand: PokerStrategy Elephant 0.67 by www.pokerstrategy.com.

      Preflop: Hero is CO with K:diamond: , K:spade:
      2 folds, Hero raises to $0,15, BU calls $0,15, SB folds, BB calls $0,10.

      Flop: ($0,47) 8:diamond: , J:club: , A:spade: (3 players)
      BB bets $0,30, Hero raises to $1,00, BU folds, BB calls $0,70.

      Turn: ($2,47) 7:club: (2 players)
      BB checks, Hero checks.

      River: ($2,47) K:club: (2 players)
      BB bets $2,15,

      How do I play on the turn? What to do on the river as played?
  • 2 replies
    • Fongie
      Fongie
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.12.2006 Posts: 4,978
      PF: Raise to .2

      Flop: Raising is OK

      Turn: OK, I don't think betting is an option here when he donk/called flop

      River:

      Let's think about this. What hand could villain play this way? He is rather tight, so preflop I think we could give him the range of pocket pairs, suited connectors (there is a cold call in front), maybe some aces that he doesn't want to raise (AJ, AQ maybe AK we don't know).

      On the flop he goes donk/call and checks turn without initiative. This is quite probably a semi-slowplayed set of 8s or one of the strong aces in his range, it *could* be T9s but I don't think he would play it that way (it's a stupid way :P ).

      On the river, he leads out strong. Since we've shown weakness on the turn this could be many hands, but from the hands we put him on on the turn both the set and the strong aces (AK and AJ even has 2pair) will take this line. The point I'm trying to make is that we're very likely ahead here if we consider his range from preflop to river. There are some hands which could be bad for us (AcQc for example), but the most obvious hands that beat us (QT, T9 and club draws) are not very likely in his range.

      With all that said (and hope you understand my thought process), I will shove the river for value and hope to be called by 2pair or the set :)
    • koaesica
      koaesica
      Bronze
      Joined: 31.08.2008 Posts: 1,066
      Thanks for a good analysis!