ICM: 3% calling range enough for a fold?

    • midgetjay
      midgetjay
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.05.2008 Posts: 241
      Now this is a situation in SnGWiz that I stumbled across while doing a quiz.

      What I want to know is, how is this a fold when the BB is calling super-nitty?





      Compared to this situation, which really isn't much different, it's a shove..




      Is that 2.8% enough to justify a fold?
  • 6 replies
    • ChoChikun
      ChoChikun
      Silver
      Joined: 15.10.2008 Posts: 291
      Originally posted by midgetjay
      Is that 2.8% enough to justify a fold?
      It is not only 2.8%. It is 2x more players behind you.
    • viewer88
      viewer88
      Bronze
      Joined: 19.04.2008 Posts: 5,545
      1st hand icm tax is super-heavy with the shortstack on BU. If BB calls you are almost always facked, while you have a lot of equity now.

      I suggest a call in first hand, although push looks good aswell tbh.
    • miskokvo
      miskokvo
      Bronze
      Joined: 28.03.2008 Posts: 1,502
      i cant it explain matematicly but think about this:

      scenario 1:
      your equity is for example 25% with stack of 1202
      pushing player equity is 5% ... 367
      Big blind equity is 20% ... 982

      why you need randge of 88+?
      -because if Big Bling wake up with a monster ... you lost 20% of equity and you are pretty fuked up

      **my play when i was BB(you are isolating small stack so you range is like A8+ KQ+ 55+ ... so if i had read on you i probably call with AJs+ definetly not folding JJ+ maybe TT+ ) coz easily shorty can have ace,you can have ace ... sou im favaorite but that is my by the way thinking**

      scenario 2:
      your equity 25%
      pushing player equity 5%


      even if you loose you have still 20% euqity no metter what so you can call looser


      (matematicly ((% eq is randomize))
      sc 1:
      prize pool 63$...
      Hero..(eq 25%) = 15,75$
      Pusher(eq 5%) = 3,15$
      BB (eq 20%) = 12,6$

      you can win,loose

      if you win when you call pusher you gain only 3,15$ so your eq will be 18,75$
      if you loose against BB with range of JJ+ AQs+ 15,75-12,6= so your eq will be 3$

      sc 2:
      prize pool..
      Hero....
      Pusher......

      if you win your equity will be 18,75$
      even if you loose your equity will be not lower than 12$??

      see diferences????

      in worse case in sc 1: you will have only 3$
      sc 2: you will have still 12$ even if you loose
    • midgetjay
      midgetjay
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.05.2008 Posts: 241
      Originally posted by ChoChikun
      Originally posted by midgetjay
      Is that 2.8% enough to justify a fold?
      It is not only 2.8%. It is 2x more players behind you.
      I only see one person?


      Originally posted by viewer88
      1st hand icm tax is super-heavy with the shortstack on BU
      I don't understand what you mean by icm tax. Could you explain that to me?


      Originally posted by miskokvo
      if Big Bling wake up with a monster ... you lost 20% of equity and you are pretty fuked up
      But this is only 2.8% of the time. Roughly 1 out of every 36 shoves he will call. Even so, being an 80/20 or 90/10 underdog against him, I can still suckout. I guess I don't see how big of a role the BB plays.

      And yes, I do see the differences between the two scenarios, but the worst case possible for the first scenario will only happen rarely. So as I was saying earlier, is that rare occasion of the BB calling me (and his hand holds up) the reason why this is a fold here? Surely it's not the BU or the CO causing it, because in scenario two, it's an easy call with KQs.
    • miskokvo
      miskokvo
      Bronze
      Joined: 28.03.2008 Posts: 1,502
      even so...

      Button has 1BB

      why are you risking 90% of your stack when next hand you will be probably ITM?

      this is why sng wiz giving you those result coz he is calculating that you will be probably ITM...



      next hand you have 20%equity of prize money for sure.... your call doesnt make sense coz if shortstack double up we have 3 big stacks ... with cruss your final chance to win sng...

      he will have like 900chips

      but this is just fishy move ... he will definitly shove only top hands like JJ+ AQ+ with you are dominated... coz he will not risk 4 BB when sombody on table has 1BB
    • miskokvo
      miskokvo
      Bronze
      Joined: 28.03.2008 Posts: 1,502
      i dont know ... but i think 10,5% pushing range is little to loose IMO in this spot