[NL2-NL10] NL50 65s, SB

    • jenoc
      jenoc
      Bronze
      Joined: 06.04.2008 Posts: 510
      CO stats


      No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (9 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

      UTG ($60.65)
      UTG+1 ($10)
      MP1 ($13.95)
      MP2 ($55.50)
      MP3 ($57.95)
      CO ($50)
      Button ($62.50)
      Hero (SB) ($9.25)
      BB ($34.35)

      Preflop: Hero is SB with 5, 6
      5 folds, CO bets $2, 1 fold, Hero raises $9 (All-In), 2 folds

      Total pot: $4.50

      Resteal chart isn't allowing such play, however:
      EV=FE*Pot+[(1-FE)*(EQwin*Pot)-(1-FE)*(EQloss*stack)]
      EV=0.75*2.75+[(1-0.75)*(0.33*9.75)-(1-FE)*(0.67*9)]=+0.80$=1.60BB

      where FE=FoldTo3bet

      Is this calculation correct and can I assume that his calling range really will be like "(1-Fold3bet)*Raise1st" or "0.25*0.30" so around 8%?

      Jenoc
  • 4 replies
    • burek2000
      burek2000
      Bronze
      Joined: 16.11.2007 Posts: 3,105
      Your equation seem fine, but I didn't put in numbers to see if your result is correct, however, I have few remarks...

      ...you don't have stats for villain's "fold to resteal CO" and using "average fold to 3-bet" could be wrong and besides you didn't include rake in your equation so I believe folding this hand would be the best move here unless you have a read beside stats that he fold to resteal very often.

      +0.80BB is pretty marginal imo and could fast lead into -EV and high variance, because you can never make the 100% correct decision adjusting his range/FE and therefore I prefer situations where your edge is at least 1BB+ to be on the safe side.
    • jenoc
      jenoc
      Bronze
      Joined: 06.04.2008 Posts: 510
      burek2000

      My bad, I forgot to mention that calculations are in $ so EV= 1.60bb (NL50) The thing is that I saw that EV video from "AnnaKurnikowa" and theoretically such spots I can find from time to time, but I'm not sure that all this is correct in practice too. I mean- isn't it so that our SSSer 3bet's will be called with much more tighter range than bigstack 3bet's?
    • burek2000
      burek2000
      Bronze
      Joined: 16.11.2007 Posts: 3,105
      Originally posted by jenoc
      burek2000

      My bad, I forgot to mention that calculations are in $ so EV= 1.60bb (NL50) The thing is that I saw that EV video from "AnnaKurnikowa" and theoretically such spots I can find from time to time, but I'm not sure that all this is correct in practice too. I mean- isn't it so that our SSSer 3bet's will be called with much more tighter range than bigstack 3bet's?
      If I looked better I could see you had 0.8$ not BB. :rolleyes:

      Anyway, I saw that video too and it could be all good, but when you make such play you have to be very precise and I think you really need the right stat to make the right decision, which is "fold to resteal" not "fold to 3-bet" because those 2 might differ a lot. And if villain calls you loosely than you see from "fold to 3-bet" you will soon find yourself in -EV situation, because 56s is nowhere near 50% equity against his raising range.

      About your question, I think villain's calling range depends more on other factors than whether you're playing SSS or BSS. If he plays with stats and sees you resteal more often he will be more likely to call you or if he's loose he will more likely to call you than if he's tight. I don't think SSS or BSS makes much of a difference here, but it's true against a SSS player he can't use the advantage of position.
    • ysessa
      ysessa
      Basic
      Joined: 11.07.2008 Posts: 1,331
      i dont like your push way to loose...

      you cant assume that he raises 30% and only calls 8% i would always consider 50% fe.