Massive Downswing

    • Wurble
      Wurble
      Silver
      Joined: 04.04.2009 Posts: 456
      Hi all, new here... Have to say i'm very impressed with this site. I was an avid user of another poker strat site but this place has it beat hands down...

      Anyway, to business.

      I got the $50 deposit in to my party poker account on Sunday afternoon and by yesterday had built that to just short of $70. It's now down to $30.85 and i'm only entering freerolls in the hope i'll get in to the money to recoup losses.

      I play using the starting hand chart although not entirely.. I will sometimes play connectors in late position early on and understand the risks involved here although this isn't what's done the damage.

      The damage has been done with me going all in with AK, AA, KK always being beaten by some lucky little **** catching something on the flop/turn/river when he/she has called me with something like JJ or A3o.

      It's really annoying me. Now i have to own up here, $11 was lost when i entered an $11 sng and didn't hit the money but the rest has been lost with proper brm :(

      Sorry for the rant lol just felt i needed to sound off about it.
  • 17 replies
    • viewer88
      viewer88
      Bronze
      Joined: 19.04.2008 Posts: 5,545
      sick :tongue:
    • Wurble
      Wurble
      Silver
      Joined: 04.04.2009 Posts: 456
      Originally posted by viewer88
      sick :tongue:
      You're not kidding... It's gone from bad to worse. I've never lost so many hands in a row, not even before i knew what a strategy was!

      The account is still heading south and i'm sticking to the strat to the letter.
    • viewer88
      viewer88
      Bronze
      Joined: 19.04.2008 Posts: 5,545
      win more hands imo :heart:
    • TTT241
      TTT241
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.09.2008 Posts: 452
      Look at my picture ;)

      TTT

    • Wurble
      Wurble
      Silver
      Joined: 04.04.2009 Posts: 456
      Woah... Well, now that's just showing off lol obviously, my downswing isn't all that. I suppose the title may be a little over-exaggeration...
    • Mstlc
      Mstlc
      Bronze
      Joined: 14.03.2009 Posts: 4,676
      I placed 4th (on the bubble) in 4 SnG's earlier tonight in a 10minute timespan. 1 I went out on a normal coinflip, but in 2 of em I lost a hand where I had the villain dominated (70/30) and in 1 I just took a suckout QQ vs 44 or something. Downswings blow but what are you gonna do about it? Raging about on these boards & carrying on the day afterwards is probably a good remedy :p
    • TTT241
      TTT241
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.09.2008 Posts: 452
      BTW, I did couple of simulations and all graphs bellow shows winning player with ROI 10% on $10 SNGs... se how the swing might be massive ;)

      It is really necessary have a look on your results in long term perspective - even 1000 games is not enough as you can see...

      2000 games gives you only 82% probability, that you winrate is your realistic long term winrate... so 5000+ SNGs would good sapmple size to see how you are doing...

      BTW this article helped me a lot... but still I do not see light at the end of the tunnel for now, because I had couple of days where I cannot just get through bubble...

      TTT








    • dadude77
      dadude77
      Bronze
      Joined: 26.10.2008 Posts: 1,516
      [ ] Enough things to do!

      :D

      how did you do those simulations btw?
    • TTT241
      TTT241
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.09.2008 Posts: 452
      Fill cell with command =rand().

      Gives number x in range 0-1.0.

      Set IF that gives 50 for x < 0.12, 30 for 0.12 < x < 0.24 and 20 for 0.24 < x < 0.36, 0 otherwise.

      And make cumulative sums that I ploted... I mainly used it to to get information on standard deviation and to get confidence interval in which you should be playing and also for estimating the accuracy of your winrate after certain number of SNGs ;) .

      Regards

      TTT
    • viewer88
      viewer88
      Bronze
      Joined: 19.04.2008 Posts: 5,545
      that calculation has to be fundamentaly correct, but how did you come up with the 12% ranges for 1-2-3rd place?
    • TTT241
      TTT241
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.09.2008 Posts: 452
      if you take rake 10%, finishing 12% on each of the first possition gives you solid ROI of 10%. If percentages will be weighted differently (but still providing 10% ROI), it will incriese your variance, but your overall ROI will remain same.

      0.12*50+0.12*30+0.12*20-11 = 1

      TTT
    • Andjing
      Andjing
      Bronze
      Joined: 16.04.2008 Posts: 1,240
      Originally posted by Wurble
      Sorry for the rant lol just felt i needed to sound off about it.
      Welcome to the jungle baby :P

      I played a session of 11 sngs yesterday, came in 1st in one, out of the money in the other 10. But I've had even worse losing streaks, my worst was 21 out of the money in a row.. so yea... downswing sucks :P
    • TTT241
      TTT241
      Bronze
      Joined: 27.09.2008 Posts: 452
      I got you... 24 in row without cashing - see the straight down line just after the top of the hill ;)

      TTT
    • deVall3y
      deVall3y
      Bronze
      Joined: 06.01.2009 Posts: 554
      imo those threads are very important, and thank you TTT for contributing. I was on a crazy downswing myself. almost 2/3 roll down, using proper BRM. then the last session I can do with my current limit, I get internet disconenct and lose all tables. man, ouch, but hearing other stories and thinking longterm puts me into proportion. ;)
    • jack12344
      jack12344
      Global
      Joined: 13.01.2009 Posts: 33
      I am in exactly the same position ... made $50 deposit on pokerstars then in first session gained $5 and after this lost $35 ... so I am at ~$20

      I play 18/45man SnG's ... I play almost exactly like pokerstrategy card says, when I go all in with KK I usually lost to A with low kicker... when I go all in with AA I lost to flush/straight or threes, it's unbelievable :(

      The second problem is that I run out of chips at middle stage of SnG ( waiting for AA KK QQ AK ) it's very hard to hit those cards sometimes I wait just to long and blinds take all my money away :( At this I have to go try go all in with really bad cards ( Such as A2 - KT ) or even worse.

      I play only ~$1 tournaments and I guess am losing that much because there is a lot of newbs here ... they call to "all in" with almost any low pair ( even with 22-33-44 ), they also don't care about positions so it's really hard to read them :(

      On the other hand in partypoker I made from $1 to $50 just by playing SnG :(

      Any advices what should I do? or is it really just about luck in poker lol

      thanks
    • sahists
      sahists
      Bronze
      Joined: 20.02.2008 Posts: 17
      I play 18/45man SnG's ... I play almost exactly like pokerstrategy card says, when I go all in with KK I usually lost to A with low kicker... when I go all in with AA I lost to flush/straight or threes, it's unbelievable


      18/45 mans are quite different story and you can't play like pokerstrategy tables says, you will loose money. 18/45 mans requires different skills and you should play 9 mans at start. In general early stages is much tighter then 9 man sng and bubble is much looser then 9 man
    • jack12344
      jack12344
      Global
      Joined: 13.01.2009 Posts: 33
      Thanks for reply anyway does pokerstrategy have some kind of "strategy" for 18/45man SnG's ? Or can someone tell how much tighter to play on 18/45 man SnG's ? Because I think that I already play way to tight ... in middle phase I don't have enough money to pay blinds :( How do you guys deal with this problem ?

      Also I am using ICM trainer ... does that software applies to 18/45 SnG's ?

      Once again thanks for help