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Estimating our equity

    • dddq8842
      dddq8842
      Bronze
      Joined: 09.12.2014 Posts: 99
      Hero : 3d 2d
      Villain: 7s7c
      Flop: 4d7dAh

      We go all in on the flop and villain turns over middle set. How do you estimate your equity here vs villain's middle set without using equilab?





      Thanks!
  • 3 replies
    • la55i
      la55i
      Moderator
      Moderator
      Joined: 27.01.2013 Posts: 8,937
      You have a gutshot + flush draw so that is 12 outs.
      You can use rule of 2+1 and get your hit chances for the next street. In that case your probability of hitting a flush or a straight would be (12 * 2) + 1 ) 25 %.
      For the probability from flop to river you can use rule of 4, so your hit probability would be 12*4 = 48 %.

      However, now that we know villain has a set, you might not always win even if you hit a flush. You have some dirty outs. If I had to make a rough estimate I would just take 2 or 3 outs away and use the rule of 4 to get the equity from flop to river. Then you would have 10 or 9 outs so your win chances would be 10 or 9 *4 = 40 or 36% from flop to river.

      That is probably how I would try to estimate it at the tables. If we check from Equilab we can see that the real answer is 33 %. I think you could get that answer by running a long probability calculation (you hit OTT and villain doesn't and he doesn't hit OTR either) or (you don't hit OTT but neither does villain and you hit OTR but villain doesn't). But as I said that is quite long and could be complex, so that is not "estimating" anymore.
    • la55i
      la55i
      Moderator
      Moderator
      Joined: 27.01.2013 Posts: 8,937
      By the way, this scenario doesn't make sense. I understand if you want to ask how do we exactly calculate tour equity without using Equilab, but if you want to ask how to estimate the equity, it doesn't make sense. That is because if we are at the tables and need to estimate something, we never know villain's hand. If we know villain's hand the hand is already over and we can always just use Equilab :D And doing the calculation using villain's exact hand is not relevant in many scenarios anyway.
    • TakingAShot
      TakingAShot
      Bronze
      Joined: 29.05.2017 Posts: 428
      Power Equilab is outstanding for this, as is Flopzilla/HoldEq and GTO+. They all build outstanding understanding and intuition at the tables if you use them extensively.