[NL20-NL50] NL50 - QQ at co

    • jotap27
      jotap27
      Bronze
      Joined: 29.03.2007 Posts: 107
      0,25/0,5 No-Limit Hold'em (5 handed)
      Hand recorder used for this poker hand: PokerStrategy Elephant 0.67 by www.pokerstrategy.com.

      Preflop: Hero is CO with Q:club: , Q:diamond:
      MP3 folds, Hero raises to $1,75, 2 folds, BB calls $1,25.

      Flop: ($3,75) 8:spade: , J:club: , 4:club: (2 players)
      BB checks, Hero bets $3,00, BB raises to $9,00, Hero calls $6,00.

      Turn: ($21,75) 3:diamond: (2 players)
      BB bets $34,75 (All-In), Hero calls $31,25 (All-In), BB gets uncalled bet back.

      River: ($84,25) 6:diamond: (1 players)


      Final Pot: $84,25
  • 8 replies
    • darkonebg
      darkonebg
      Headadmin
      Headadmin
      Joined: 17.01.2008 Posts: 9,508
      Hello,
      Some stats would be very helpfull.
      Against an unknown Im folding turn to such a huge overbet, I find myself behind against his range.

      Best regards,
      darkonebg

      [size=10]If you have any further questions about this hand,
      dont hesitate to ask them in this thread,
      and dont forget to click the "Advise the judge of taking another look " button in the reply form.[/size]
    • jotap27
      jotap27
      Bronze
      Joined: 29.03.2007 Posts: 107
      Hi darkonebg,

      I don't remember his stats.

      But i read his all-in move as a sign of weakness. It seemed that he wanted to end the hand right there holding Top Pair and good kicker.

      Did i read him right ?

      Regards
      JP
    • EliasVeritas
      EliasVeritas
      Bronze
      Joined: 29.05.2008 Posts: 10,752
      I think it's just the otherway.
      I think his shove on the turn means he is very unlikely to have a TPTK kind of hand. That would change his hand in a bluff and I don't see any reason for him to do this with a Top pair, even if he is a bad player. I'm actually never expecting to see TP after that shove.

      65% Set/overpair -> 4,5% equity
      20% Strong draws(Tc9c or AcKc) -> 70% equity
      15% Top Pair or complete bluffs -> 92% equity

      This would only give us: 31.7% equity
      We need: 35.6%
      We lose: $3.41

      Without stats/reads I think this is the max % of draws & bluffs we can add so it's a fold for me.

      Let's say you would have aces. Then I wouldn't exclude a QQ or KK here as they tend to play them very aggresivly postflop when they slowplay it preflop.

      55% Set/overpair -> 4.5% equity
      20% Strong draws(Tc9c or AcKc) -> 70% equity
      15% Top Pair or complete bluffs -> 100% equity
      10% Overpair(QQ,KK) -> 100% equity -> 95% equity

      Now we suddenly have 42% equity winning us $5.58. So take the shot with aces but fold your queens here.

      Off course it also depends on which site you play on. Some sites are just way more aggressive or have much more bluffing players. So if you see this situation happen a lot with TP kinda hands, it's a call obviously.
    • EliasVeritas
      EliasVeritas
      Bronze
      Joined: 29.05.2008 Posts: 10,752
      Fold flop is also ok on some sites, just depends on your overall read of the average unknown player.
    • jotap27
      jotap27
      Bronze
      Joined: 29.03.2007 Posts: 107
      Hi again,

      Well, i play at full tilt and lately i have been playing in tables with loose players. Tables with VPIP higher than 50%.

      Do you think it is relevant to tell here what the villain had ?

      Regards
      JP
    • EliasVeritas
      EliasVeritas
      Bronze
      Joined: 29.05.2008 Posts: 10,752
      That's what you should try to find out while you're playing there. I think there's a lot of aggression at FTP so draws are definetly a part of his range. Still I rest my case that TP is very unlikely after he shoved the turn. Because of all the aggression I would definetly call the flop since a raise doesn't always mean he has the nuts. Turn still remains a fold though.
    • jotap27
      jotap27
      Bronze
      Joined: 29.03.2007 Posts: 107
      Hi again,

      Results follow (highlight to see):
      Hero shows a pair of queens (Qc Qd)
      BB shows a pair of jacks (Kh Js)

      So, it seems i made a bad decision but had luck. I will not forget your comments next time something similar happens. I guess that stats on the vilain play an important roll on the decision.

      REgards
      JP
    • darkonebg
      darkonebg
      Headadmin
      Headadmin
      Joined: 17.01.2008 Posts: 9,508
      Yes, villain stats are indeed crucial in such situations.
      Thats exactly why, against an unknown, in EliasVeritas's wonderful analysis, I give a distribution to a very strong hand of 80%.Its better to make a weak fold than a overplaying call.