• Basic
Joined: 17.02.2019
Hi. I'm a new poker player.
I just saw this video from MIT. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=62nDLA_A8gs
At 11:10 the presenter show how to calculate the equity at the river. He get 44 total combinations. AK, AQ, AJ, A9 and A8 beats him always. AT beats him half the time. But then I really don't understand how he can say that he wins 11/44 combinations. I says something like "so each time we actually get half the pot. So I'm I'm gonna make that equivalent to us winning three of those times of us losing three of those columns which is equivalent in expectation". Well.. how did he estimate that? Wouldn't it be the same to say something different like "win 4 of that 5 times and lose 4 of that 5 times"? I mean, summed is always 1/2. And where does 11 exactly come from?
Thanks
• 3 replies
• Moderator
Moderator
Joined: 27.01.2013
Hi culoonto,

Welcome to PokerStrategy!

In the video the guy used a range of A8+ for the villain. When we take card removal into account (some combos are blocked because the cards are already on the board) then that range would have total of 44 combos.

AK, AQ, AJ, A9 and A8 beats him always.
Actually we beat A8 on that board. So we beat 8 combos.
Then AT would be a split. AT has total 6 combos. Because that is a split, you could basically say you win 3 combos and lose 3 combos.
--> this means you can add those 3 combos to the 8 combos of A8 that you win --> you win 11 combos out of the total 44 combos.

I hope this clarified things So basically when you have combos that are a tie, you can think that you win half of them. And the 11 combos came from adding that half to the other combos we win.
• Super Moderator
Super Moderator
Joined: 02.09.2010
Originally posted by culoonto
Well.. how did he estimate that? Wouldn't it be the same to say something different like "win 4 of that 5 times and lose 4 of that 5 times"? I mean, summed is always 1/2. And where does 11 exactly come from?
Thanks
Hi culoonto,
To help understand this more, you can download the free Equity calculator "Equilab"

In that tool, you can computer your hand to ranges that you think the opponent might have.
plugging his ranges into Equilab we get:

Board: A 9 2  3  3
Equity     Win     Tie
MP2    75.00%  68.18%   6.82% { A8s+, A8o+ }
MP3    25.00%  18.18%   6.82% { AsTc }

la55i gave the reasoning in detail.
I really encourage you to download Equilab and work through the equity calculations as you study.

The basics are these:
For any two ranks -- let's use Ace and King
There are 4 suits, so the cards can be matched up 4 x 4 ways, for a total of 16
Since there are 4 suits, 4 of those combinations are the suited combos:
The other 12 are off-suit combos:

All the best,
VS
• Bronze
Joined: 10.06.2011
free Equity calculator is very good but the human is better, the brain is more than soft