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[NL2] KQo - Top pair on low board vs XR

    • GaspodeWD
      GaspodeWD
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.02.2019 Posts: 39
      Poker Stars, $0.01/$0.02 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
      Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

      SB: $4.77 (238.5 bb)
      BB: $2.44 (122 bb)
      Hero (UTG): $2.06 (103 bb)
      MP: $7.31 (365.5 bb)
      CO: $0.80 (40 bb)
      BTN: $5.73 (286.5 bb)

      Preflop: Hero is UTG with :Qd: :Ks:
      Hero raises to $0.05, 2 folds, BTN calls $0.05, SB calls $0.04, BB calls $0.03

      Flop: ($0.20) :3h: :Kh: :6d: (4 players)
      SB checks, BB checks, Hero bets $0.10, BTN folds, SB calls $0.10, BB folds

      Turn: ($0.40) :5c: (2 players)
      SB checks, Hero bets $0.20, SB raises to $0.40, Hero folds

      Results:
      $0.80 pot ($0.03 rake)
      Final Board: :3h: :Kh: :6d: :5c:
      SB mucked and won $0.77 ($0.42 net)
      Hero mucked :Qd: :Ks: and lost (-$0.35 net)


      So i am not particularly putting him on the straight, maybe the straight draw. My bigger fear is maybe a better kicker (would have expected a 3b pre flop). But mainly I put him on a random 2 pair with him coming in from blinds, or maybe a set with the 5. Did i play too weak? I couldn't think what card on the river i would continue playing with.... if in doubt fold it out (is that a thing?)
  • 10 replies
    • zetozinho
      zetozinho
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.06.2017 Posts: 761
      I'd call with position a min-raise here most of the times. Other people might fold. This top pair hands vs turn raises at low stakes tend to lose value. Besides the board is ugly.
    • herrmutig
      herrmutig
      Gold
      Joined: 18.10.2018 Posts: 130
      Why is that board ugly?

      I might inclinced in checking the flop as we can't improve a lot with K-Top pair and playing vs 3 opponents.
      As played you should call the turn and reevaluate the river.. His min raise doesn't always mean strength. He can do this with so many draws, some Kx

      So ye imo you pussied out :p.
    • MyFloXyBabY
      MyFloXyBabY
      Silver
      Joined: 15.02.2010 Posts: 4,168
      Hard to fold to a minraise, moreover when he can have a draw. So call and pray, I mean call and reevaluate.
    • la55i
      la55i
      Moderator
      Moderator
      Joined: 27.01.2013 Posts: 8,909
      I would probably call that turn min-raise too and re-evaluate OTR. Turn minraises are strong but with the price that is offered us I think we are ahead often enough.
    • SDK1987
      SDK1987
      Moderator
      Moderator
      Joined: 12.11.2008 Posts: 41,080
      Pre-flop I would most likely raise 3bb in total. Especially on a fishy table..
      Flop bet could be bigger multi way as well for value.
      You can easy bet like 12-15c depending how fishy the blinds are.
      As played I would most of the time call the turn as well, but I doubt you will be in front and if he would bet decent on the river I would give up most of the time.

      Cheers,
      SDK1987
    • Oly0909
      Oly0909
      Silver
      Joined: 08.06.2008 Posts: 902
      Originally posted by SDK1987
      Pre-flop I would most likely raise 3bb in total. Especially on a fishy table..
      Flop bet could be bigger multi way as well for value.
      You can easy bet like 12-15c depending how fishy the blinds are.
      This, but I’m folding against minraises allways without a read. I would much rather call normal size raise against a reg, then minraise against a fish.
    • GaspodeWD
      GaspodeWD
      Bronze
      Joined: 17.02.2019 Posts: 39
      Thanks all. Bit of a mixed bag. I think my main issue was summed up, that at NL2 min raise can mean all sorts. I have called down similar spots with mixed results, so think it is a little bit of getting burned in the same spot often has made me a bit more hesitant on it.
    • timkuy
      timkuy
      Silver
      Joined: 29.01.2009 Posts: 32
      def. bet bigger preflop, why not make it 4bb-5bb, KQplays best against fewer opponents and you're UTG.

      OTF (On the flop) I would also tend to bet bigger, again multiway pot and there is a flush draw out there.

      OTT (on the turn) you're getting very good odds. There is $1 in the pot if I am not mistaking and it's .20c to call you're getting 5 to 1 meaning you're hand needs to win only 16,7% of the time. Of course you have reverse implied odds to take into account.

      But if we run your hand on the turn in equilab against a range something like this: TT-22,K6s-K5s,K3s,K6o-K5o,K3o
      that is consisting of all pocket pairs that would not have 3bet preflop, all combinations of two pair or better, you are still a near 55% favorite to win the pot.

      This is assuming that he would occasionally min raise as a semi-bluff if he doesn't believe the flop helped you... which seems somewhat likely with a lonely K on the board and considering the relative small bet sizes you made.

      Add in the combinations of flushdraws he can be semibluffing on the turn and you're equity goes up another 5-15% depending on how many flushdraws you think he'd be betting here.

      so returning to the question of the reverse implied odds, given the constructed range of your opponent, even if it mainly consisting of hands that have you beat on the turn or have some kind of pair with a draw... your chances to win the pot still seem around 50% or better. meaning you could easily call up to a pot bet on the river.

      Given all this at least a turn call and a check/call on the river is warranted.

      what do you think?
    • timkuy
      timkuy
      Silver
      Joined: 29.01.2009 Posts: 32
      if you think that 55% to win on the turn sounds unreasonable, of course if you think your oppo is less likely to minraise pocket pairs which didn't hit a set, your equity goes down a lot, but again it goes up a lot for a bunch of combinations of hearts he could have, also the range above was constructed somewhat conservatively. If we give him credit for holding two pair combinations on this board it seems likely he could have a bunch of combitions that you already have beat.

      if he has two pairs that exclude the 6 any 6 on the river pairs the board and give you a higher kicker, so that doubles the amount of outs you have along the 3 queens.

      I would opt to treat a minraise here more closely to a call then a raise in this situation.

      Also, as OP already said, minraises mean all sorts of things, from an EV (expected value) point of view, it just seems like giving up way to much to fold here without a clear read on the oppo.
    • la55i
      la55i
      Moderator
      Moderator
      Joined: 27.01.2013 Posts: 8,909
      I have seen some population analysis for turn min-raises specifically. The sample size might have been small but the conclusion was that this is often done with 2pairs or better hands about 50% of the time. The second half was spread between all sorts of hands from total trash to draws to overpairs and so on. So yes minraises are often quite strong. But now the price offered to us is ridiculous. We need to win this less than 17% of the time. We might be behind over half of the time and we might need to fold vs further action OTR but I think this should still be a call.