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[NL2-NL10] nl10 bss AQsuited

    • mrjorisa
      Joined: 30.03.2008 Posts: 200
      Hand converted with online PokerStrategy hand converter:

      Known players:

      $0.05/$0.1 No-Limit Hold'em (5 handed)

      Preflop: Hero is BU with Q, A.
      MP3 folds, CO raises to $0.3, Hero calls $0.30, SB calls $0.25, BB folds.

      Flop: ($1.00) 5, K, 8 (3 players)
      SB checks, CO bets $0.90, Hero calls $0.90, SB folds.

      Turn: ($2.80) 8 (2 players)
      CO bets $1.80, Hero calls $1.80.

      River: ($6.40) T (2 players)
      CO bets $2.50, Hero raises to $5.9, CO raises to $9.5, Hero calls $1.10.

      Final Pot: $22.90.
  • 6 replies
    • Fongie
      Joined: 02.12.2006 Posts: 4,978
      Preflop: You could 3bet here, but calling isn't bad if you think CO will fold all worse hands to your 3bet.

      Flop: OK

      Turn: Fold. You don't get odds to continue and you aren't drawing to the nuts anymore (you could be drawing dead in fact)
    • veriz
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504

      Preflop: I like 3betting more than Calling.
      Flop: OK.
      Turn: Fold because we don't get the correct odds anymore also the board is paired.

      Best regards,
    • Fongie
      Joined: 02.12.2006 Posts: 4,978
      A reason for calling would be if you know your opponent is a nit (tight player), who will only fold to your 3bet or 4bet himself. Then if you just call you keep his worse hands in and can get money from him postflop.
      Against unknown or looser players I will 3bet too though
    • mrjorisa
      Joined: 30.03.2008 Posts: 200
      Hi guys, thanks for the comments, i have realised the value of strong hands like AQ and 3bet to see where i stand compared to my opponent preflop.

      However, i don't really understand what does it mean when i am said to not have value/odds to call on the turn for my flush draw - i do understand that the equity nosedives when the flop's passed, as on the turn there's only 1 more card left to make my hand, plus the fact that the board is paired too; however villian was only betting slightly over half pot, that was what enticed me to make the call. Could it be said that in future, when it comes to the turn, most draws with 8 outs (OESD) or flush (9 outs) should be given up?

      Thank you for the assistance.
    • silent21
      Joined: 08.08.2008 Posts: 1,556
      Hello mrjorisa,

      I will try to explain why you should not call on the turn:

      You are having 9 outs from 44 cards left in the deck so the probability of winning is 9/44 and therefore and the probabilibty of losing is 35/44

      You are calling 18BB in order to win 64BB -> Your possible winning is 64bb and possible loss in case you dont hit flush is 18bb.

      The formula for +EV is:

      (possible winnings) > (possible losses) * (probability of losing) / (probability of winning) *

      so from here we can calculate the following:

      64BB > ( 18BB * 35/44 ) / 9/44

      64bb > 68bb -> not true. (68bb is approximate calcuation, it is somewhere between 67 and 69 )

      In this case you can call 18BB only if the possible winnings were more than 68bb BUT there are not. Also there is another posiblity that you are drawing dead because on the turn the board is paired and a FH is possible so your odds are even worse.

      I hope i explained it clearly,

      Best regards,

      I would appreciate if any coach verifies my calculation

      * More information how to calcuate EV is available in this great article:
    • BogdanDin7
      Joined: 29.04.2008 Posts: 1,114
      Nice maths there but aren`t there 46 left there ? ^^

      Anyway you can`t possibly do calculations like that every hand , for the basics draws like FD and OESD with 8-9 outs hit like 17-19%/street if i`m not wrong so that would be like 1 out of 5 times per street. So you take a look at the pot and at the bet size and try to figure out if you can make a profitable call.

      In this case just like the judges say you don`t have the odds , and the board being pair is another no in calling

      However I would raise the flop for sure , just because I would raise there sometimes with a K / air or a PP and I think CO will fold some better hand like PP here. And if you hit your flush it will be well hidden and the implied get bigger