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[NL2-NL10] NL50 AJ - low connected flop

    • WildBeans
      WildBeans
      Bronze
      Joined: 23.09.2008 Posts: 586
      villain is 55/41 in 81 hands AF 3.2

      Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (8 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

      Button ($89.45)
      SB ($75.50)
      BB ($50.70)
      UTG ($20.45)
      UTG+1 ($50)
      MP1 ($48.70)
      MP2 ($13.80)
      Hero (CO) ($7.75)

      Preflop: Hero is CO with A, J
      [color:#666666]4 folds[/color], [color:#CC3333]Hero bets $1.75[/color], Button calls $1.75, [color:#666666]2 folds[/color]

      Flop: ($4.25) 7, 5, 6 [color:#009B00](2 players)[/color]
      [color:#CC3333]Hero bets $2.10[/color], [color:#CC3333]Button raises to $6.20[/color], [color:#666666]Hero folds[/color]

      Total pot: $8.45 | Rake: $0.40
  • 10 replies
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello,

      Sometimes I am taking just Check/Fold on such board against such opponents.

      Best regards,
      Rensu
    • Gerv
      Gerv
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.05.2008 Posts: 17,678
      Hi Wildbeans,

      Calculate your odds you get assuming you are getting raised all-in and see if you get 3,1:1 for 6 outs, if you get it , shove accordingly. If not then I muck it

      Best regards,
      Gerv
    • WildBeans
      WildBeans
      Bronze
      Joined: 23.09.2008 Posts: 586
      would you give me 6 outs every time? What about A6 A5 A7 hands which I think are quite likely?
    • dandycal
      dandycal
      Bronze
      Joined: 10.10.2008 Posts: 1,711
      How about push flop directly as c-bet because 2/3 pot = 40% of his remaining stack and he's OOP?
    • Gerv
      Gerv
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.05.2008 Posts: 17,678
      Originally posted by dandycal
      How about push flop directly as c-bet because 2/3 pot = 40% of his remaining stack and he's OOP?
      I don't think I can create FE against 54/41 despite the fact that I do not know his WTS stats (and other variables)

      Giving up against this fish is also not bad since he likes to (bluff?)raise

      - Gerv
    • dandycal
      dandycal
      Bronze
      Joined: 10.10.2008 Posts: 1,711
      Hmm, ok, I get it.

      And just one more thing:

      Originally posted by Gerv
      Calculate your odds you get assuming you are getting raised all-in and see if you get 3,1:1 for 6 outs, if you get it , shove accordingly. If not then I muck it
      Gerv
      Doesn't he need 7:1 with 6 outs which is 3,5:1 for a push rather than 3,1:1? I'm just wondering if I'm missing any detail in the math here.
    • WildBeans
      WildBeans
      Bronze
      Joined: 23.09.2008 Posts: 586
      Originally posted by dandycal
      Hmm, ok, I get it.

      And just one more thing:

      Originally posted by Gerv
      Calculate your odds you get assuming you are getting raised all-in and see if you get 3,1:1 for 6 outs, if you get it , shove accordingly. If not then I muck it
      Gerv
      Doesn't he need 7:1 with 6 outs which is 3,5:1 for a push rather than 3,1:1? I'm just wondering if I'm missing any detail in the math here.
      As far as I know, 6 outs gives you about 24% chance of winning and so thats 24:76 or 1:3,1

      edit1: I think you're getting confused, because one street is 12:88 and 2 streets is 24:76, - for odds like this you don't just halve one of the sides... However you do double the percentage chance - e.g. if I have 12% to hit one street, then I have 24% to get it on 2 streets..

      edit 2: I would still like to know if you'd always give yourself 6 outs in this situation.. Maybe one should be discounted due to the good possibility of his calling A-rag hands preflop..
    • maniac
      maniac
      Bronze
      Joined: 29.03.2006 Posts: 6,549
      preflop 4BB, push flop
    • dandycal
      dandycal
      Bronze
      Joined: 10.10.2008 Posts: 1,711
      Originally posted by WildBeans

      As far as I know, 6 outs gives you about 24% chance of winning and so thats 24:76 or 1:3,1

      edit1: I think you're getting confused, because one street is 12:88 and 2 streets is 24:76, - for odds like this you don't just halve one of the sides... However you do double the percentage chance - e.g. if I have 12% to hit one street, then I have 24% to get it on 2 streets..

      edit 2: I would still like to know if you'd always give yourself 6 outs in this situation.. Maybe one should be discounted due to the good possibility of his calling A-rag hands preflop..

      No, I understand that you get 2X more outs for the push. But I think with more precise calculations we can get a slightly higher value for the necessary pot odds:

      #1>> 6:47 = 12,7% or 25,4% for 2 streets. 25,4:74,5 = 1:3,4

      or
      #2>> 6outs:41odds = 1:6,83 < I'd need 6,83 pot odds for BEQ in one street
      And half of that = 3,4 pot odds for 2 streets.

      Does it make any sense?
    • Gerv
      Gerv
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.05.2008 Posts: 17,678
      Originally posted by dandycal
      or
      #2>> 6outs:41odds = 1:6,83 < I'd need 6,83 pot odds for BEQ in one street
      And half of that = 3,4 pot odds for 2 streets.

      Does it make any sense?
      No I dont get this

      6.8:1 = One street and you cant just call to say ''Hey I got 3.4:1 if i make it to the river'' since you are missing the Turn as a betting round. only if he checks you can justify it but if he bets on the turn again, your whole Equation is in jeopardy

      - Gerv