[NL2-NL10] NL 25: AQ preflop

    • mishkagg
      mishkagg
      Bronze
      Joined: 29.07.2008 Posts: 1,354
      Known players:
      Position:
      Stack
      MP2:
      $14.45
      Hero:
      $4.50

      0.1/0.25 No-Limit Hold'em (8 handed)
      Hand recorder used for this poker hand: PokerStrategy Elephant 0.67 by www.pokerstrategy.com.

      Preflop: Hero is MP3 with Q:spade: , A:diamond:
      2 folds, MP2 raises to $0.50, Hero raises to $1.50, 4 folds, MP2 calls $1.00.

      Flop: ($3.35) 4:spade: , 2:spade: , 4:diamond: (2 players)
      MP2 checks, Hero checks.

      Turn: ($3.35) 3:spade: (2 players)
      MP2 bets $0.50, Hero raises to $3.00 (All-In)

      Should I've just called here?
  • 10 replies
    • maniac
      maniac
      Bronze
      Joined: 29.03.2006 Posts: 6,545
      shove flop as cbet. pot > 1,5 stack
    • veriz
      veriz
      Black
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504
      Hello,

      Nice hand, well played.

      Best regards,
      Rensu
    • tonnek
      tonnek
      Bronze
      Joined: 16.02.2009 Posts: 413
      why re-rais after villain raise? Is it because of the stats? I am not familiar with them yet
    • Jaissica
      Jaissica
      Bronze
      Joined: 10.02.2009 Posts: 1,385
      Explanation for Tonnek -

      Villain's VP$IP (voltunarily put $ into pot) is 84. This means he plays 84% of hands. As you can imagine this means everything except pure trash 27o, 39o type ranges, and probably those often. Edit - if you download and install the Elephant trial you can use the hand filter function to get an idea of what 84% looks like using the % slidebar. 22+, A2s+, K2s+, Q2s+, J2s+, T2s+, 92s+, 82s+, 73s+, 63s+, 53s+, A2o+, K2o+, Q2o+, J2o+, T2o+, 93o+, 85o+, 75o+, 65o.

      Even better the villain's RaisePreFlop is 35%. That means he raises 35% of hands; nearly all aces, alot of kings, all pocket pairs, alot of suited connectors, probably some offsuit connectors. AQo is around the 7% mark, meaning we are in front of his range here 80% of the time.

      Thus we raise him for sure with AQo in a raise-shove line.

      Dont mess around guessing if this villain has hit a flop or not. Cbet-shove the flop and hope he comes in with worse air. He will (or fold) often enough to make it more profitable than checking or calling down.
    • mishkagg
      mishkagg
      Bronze
      Joined: 29.07.2008 Posts: 1,354
      Originally posted by tonnek
      why re-rais after villain raise? Is it because of the stats? I am not familiar with them yet
      You mean before the flop? Yes, it's because the other guy is playing 84% of the starting hands and raising with 35% of them and AQ is way ahead of this range.

      Ok I agree I should've put it all in on the flop.
    • burek2000
      burek2000
      Bronze
      Joined: 16.11.2007 Posts: 3,105
      Originally posted by maniac
      shove flop as cbet. pot > 1,33 stack
      +1
    • tonnek
      tonnek
      Bronze
      Joined: 16.02.2009 Posts: 413
      Thank you very much for the very good explanations Jaissica. Even a rookie can understand that :)
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,694
      Agreed. Shove the flop as cbet, you are most likely ahead.

      Having said that, sample size is too small to make any definitive judgments on the range of hands villain plays. I would peg his VPIP at 50 and PFR at 20, although if you prefer to err on the side of caution you would narrow his SH range even further.
    • mishkagg
      mishkagg
      Bronze
      Joined: 29.07.2008 Posts: 1,354
      Originally posted by mbml
      Agreed. Shove the flop as cbet, you are most likely ahead.

      Having said that, sample size is too small to make any definitive judgments on the range of hands villain plays. I would peg his VPIP at 50 and PFR at 20, although if you prefer to err on the side of caution you would narrow his SH range even further.
      So following this train of thought my check on the flop wasn't completely out of the question?
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,694
      @mishkagg: Not exactly. In this particular situation, pushing is the correct (and only) option. Even if I generously discount his range to something like 40 20, you will still be ahead.

      My point is that when analysing stats, do remember to take into account the sample size. Stats garnered from a sample size of 35 simply cannot be taken at face value. You will need to make adjusments to his range. To make accurate judgments based on stats you would probably need a sample size of >150.