[NL20-NL50] nl50 1,35k BB deep, overcall on the flop with special circumstances

    • zubrils2
      Joined: 21.08.2008 Posts: 45

      Full Tilt Poker, $0.25/0.50 Hold'em Cash Games, 6 Players
      Hand Converter by Pokerhand.org

      CO: $198.50
      Button: $200.77
      SB: $89.75
      BB: $343.72
      UTG: $384.83
      UTG+1: $96.25

      Dealt to UTG 6c6h

      UTG raises to $2, (4 folds), BB raises to $13.50, UTG calls $12

      Flop: ($28.25) 2c5h3c (2 Players)
      BB all-in $329.72, UTG calls $329.72

      Turn: ($687.69) Ts (2 Players)

      River: ($687.69) 9h (2 Players)

      BB Showed 9dAc
      UTG Showed 6c6h
      BB wins $684.69

      So let's start out by bringing you guys up to the speed. I played 150 hands with that guy on that table. He overshoved 130 out of 150 of those hands. There was 2 types of shoves he did - either he just shoved pre flop over a raise or limp or just open shoved, or he made a huge 3bet and shoved any flop after get called(he also called any shove over the top pre flop). No matter how many players have called pre flop or how many players see the flop. He managed to build up a huge stack because, well, he run hot like hell and stacked regs one after another.

      Clearly a nice fish. So it started out by me openr it to 4bb and he made a huge 3bet as usual. Since we were so deepstacked I definetly had the implied odds because he would shove any flop no matter what. I made the call pre flop. Flop came 235 with 2 clubs. As suspected he shoved the flop. I instacalled and after that made my calculations:

      If he plays 100% of his range on that flop my equity is ~71%
      If he has 2 overcards(which he will have way the most of the time) I have 75% equity.

      I already knew it but the worrys are(wasn't for me because it was a snap call) variance and pot odds. Is it worth risking in such a spot with 700BB when the pot is only 27$ big and given stack sizes it will have a lot of variance. The thing is that I'll never hae pot odds against that guy(because he shoves every time no matter what) and even if I have a really strong hand our stack sizes are so big that it still has a huge variance. I'll give a few examples.

      Even though AA are the absolute nuts pre flop. If he open shoves let's say from CO and you have the AA in BB against 88 you have 80% equity. Of course pot odds doesn't matter at this point but still there is a huge variance even against a hand like 88.

      If you have KK(definetly a call) getting it in against a 100% large range you have 82% equity pre flop. Still a lot of variance given the stack sizes.

      Let's say you both are so deeply stacked as in my posted hand. Flop comes AK9 with a FD possible. You call his shove with AA even though you know that he has the FD. He has 25% with his FD. Again a lot of variance.

      Of course situations differ because in my posted hand there is a higher chance that I am beat on the flop but 10-15 hands out of 100% big range isn't a concern imo. Any way you look at it - it will be a gamble and will have a lot of variance.

      Last factor which made my decision so easy was timing. It was only a matter of the time when he will get stacked by other regs and I really thought that this is the spot where it's worth taking a risk because there can be no other chance to do it.(I was right on that part he got stacked in like 10-15 hands).

      Few more examples about his tendencys pre flop:

      I am completely sure about my decision in that spot and I would make the call in the same spot every time. What I look for is ur opinions.
  • 5 replies
    • BogdanDin7
      Joined: 29.04.2008 Posts: 1,114
      When you`re facing such a guy either leave the table or be ready for some variance. There is no middle way. I would go for the bitchy variance way anytime :D I would however wait for a better spot to move for such a big pot.
    • zubrils2
      Joined: 21.08.2008 Posts: 45
      As I mentioned before time was the thing that I didn't have. I mean it's really unlikely that I'll get a better spot before he will get stacked. I didn't have any reason to leave the table because I don't feel money scared in any way and also I am almost always making rational decisions even in such marginal spots if I'm confident with my hand. So feeling in any way uncomfortably wasn't the issue.
    • veriz
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504

      I am also waiting for better situation, no way I am risking with so much in such situation.

      Best regards,
    • anstaendig
      Joined: 05.11.2006 Posts: 3,833
      As you mentioned yourself. Such herocalls are just high variance against this type of player. If you have a proper brm and are not too scared I'm fine with your call allthough it's a bit risky.
    • Kaitz20
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      When calling you´re really risking there a lot- it is also probably depends on the player, but I wouldn´t risk there 6 stacks, because although youré likely there ahead 75%, some times you´re way behind and I would really like to avoif variance.
      Here you did the right, call unlucky river.