[NL2-NL10] NL4, 55, set on the turn

    • Yuris125
      Joined: 16.03.2009 Posts: 319
      Hand converted with online PokerStrategy.com hand converter:

      $0.02/$0.04 No-Limit Hold'em (10 handed)

      Known players:

      Preflop: Hero is BB with 5, 5.
      UTG calls $0.04, UTG1 folds, UTG2 calls $0.04, 6 folds, Hero checks.

      Flop: ($0.14) 2, T, 9 (3 players)
      Hero checks, UTG bets $0.04, UTG2 calls $0.04, Hero calls $0.04.

      Turn: ($0.26) 5 (3 players)
      Hero checks, UTG bets $0.04, UTG2 calls $0.04, Hero raises to $0.25, UTG calls $0.21, UTG2 folds.

      River: ($0.80) 3 (2 players)
      Hero bets $0.40, UTG raises to $3.49 (All-in), Hero calls $3.09.

      Final Pot: $7.78.

      The UTG in this hand is a callings station, who also likes to minbet every street regardless of his hand. Several times he moved all-in on the river, and was never called. Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF/Hands) - 77/5/2.0/56

      Preflop - check ok or should I raise here?
      Flop - call ok? At this point, the plan is to try to get to showdown; if UTG continues to minbet, and nobody raises him, it seems to be quite a low price
      Turn - I hit my set, so raise is probably correct, isn't it?
      River - call ok? Frankly, I have no idea where I stand, he can have anything from a flush to a busted OESD with J8

  • 4 replies
    • Jaissica
      Joined: 10.02.2009 Posts: 1,385
      If as you say villain is a fish who will bet minimum every street with a high chance of either shoving or calling big river bets then you have implieds to chase a set (rare).

      Each card is about a 20-1. So for a 4c call to a 22c pot (flop) you need to make an additional ~65 cents in called bets if you hit your 4 on the turn. On the river having called another 4c chasing another 20-1 you need to hit around $1.3 in called bets.

      River you have to call. Trips is a broke hand except against absolute nits on that board. Against villain with observed pattern of min-min-shove there can be no doubt you are stacking here.
    • Yuris125
      Joined: 16.03.2009 Posts: 319
      In fact, I thought chances were good that I'm ahead on the flop. UTG can have any 2 cards; UTG2 (15/11/5.0/112) probably has high cards, with a made hand he would've raised with this AF. So I'm calling not for set value, but to get to showdown cheaply keeping the pot small, and if he outdraws me, then so be it. He doesn't shove on the river all the time, only when he thinks the opponent tries to bluff him off whatever he has, even if he has nothing :) If it's checked to him on the river, he usually just minbets again
    • Jaissica
      Joined: 10.02.2009 Posts: 1,385
      If we could play against 9 of him all the time we could all live in the Bahamas and play poker 6 hours a day to pay the resort bills :)
    • Kaitz20
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      Pf, flop and turn are fine.
      I think you can´t fold to river, because he could easily shove there two pair (don´t think he holds bused draw too often).