SnG Variance

    • karmi
      Joined: 01.01.2009 Posts: 13
      So after a while I finally found my forte and decided I would 9table the $1.25sngs on FullTilt. Things were going good, i was up to $100 from my initial $50 and gaining a few dollars per session. I would set up 9 tables at once, and if I busted open a new table occasionally (depending how late in the session) or just play till the final 8 were done. I was ready to hit $110 and then start for the $2.25 ones and move down if i dropped below $75. I had it all planned and was looking forward to it. So I logged on bright eyed and bushy tailed ready for a nice days grinding for my $10 goal so I could move up a limit. But then....

      Today has been one of the strangest poker days for me ever. It almost felt like nothing was going my way, and if it did it was bad. Example: Ill have pocket 7s off the BB into a limped pot, flop comes 7 9 3 and ill get bet into, raise it into a push from villian = i pretty much have to call im commited with middle set in a limped pot. Its like a setup, im sure I could of gotten away from it (people like to limp pairs) but its still so setup.

      Ie my AA vs 10s all in preflop, rivers a 10.

      my AK suited, raise 4x bb, 2 callers, flop comes A63 rainbow, villian bets, mp1 folds, i reraise (minraise) he open shoves and again im commited, he flips over 63o and tells me im a fish and he had pot odds for calling.

      HU last 2 in the sng, even in chips, pocket 6s; i bet, he raises, i reraise, he calls, flop comes 537 rainbow i open ship another 3k into a 7k pot (not much else can do) get called by AK and the river is an ace.

      Mid SNG, AQ raised, got 1 caller, flop comes Q35 and a shortstack shoves for 800 (half my stack, but TPTK, cant get away surely?) he flips over Q9 and then the turn is a 9.

      Theres other situations like this; but EVERY SINGLE TIME im getting my money in ahead and losing. I cant believe this corrupt game.

      Sure im a leaky player, im not amazing, im sure alot of my plays were possibly made on tilt of some sort, but i have been applying the same strategy and profiting for a long time. Why do the moons have to align and give me all my bad beats on the same day? Its absolutely sick. I put a few weeks into doubling my bankroll and im nearly back where I started tempted to move up a limit to make earning it back faster but know that will lead to more problems.

      One thing that comforts me is that at the end of the day the game is part luck and you make money based on your edge on the game and obviously some luck. Considering i have only played 250 SnG's; it may well be that i am yet to see that edge.

      PS: I have a whole new respect to the guys who play this for a living. I have always been jealous of the money they make but they TRULY work for it; if you have a day like I just had you know for sure when your aces are up against 93o you already know your going to lose.
  • 5 replies
    • AndySk
      Joined: 06.12.2007 Posts: 174
      my ROI on 2,25$ after first 300 games were something around 33%, now it went down to 16-17% :) . My biggest swing was losing almost 30 BIs and I consider myself a player, that can beat this low lvl :D .

      Anyway, my advice is, dont play 1,25$ what should u do is to move to play matrix sngs 2,25 - LESS RAKE - SMALLER SWINGS - BIGGER WINNINGS
    • luitzen
      Joined: 03.04.2009 Posts: 664
      I've noticed that nothing is as destructive for your bankroll to set certain $ goals. It increases your tilting proneness since you want to reach that goal, no matter what happens.
    • PocketAcesJohn
      Joined: 19.06.2008 Posts: 1,116
      Evevetabley there will be a couple of day in the mont hwhere you lose's important putting this in perspective.

      NO ONE wins 100% of the time...You should try to find away of accepting it...and aslong as you put your money/chips in good...then theres nothing you should be concerned about. It just takes experience to develope a stonger mindset...but it will come.

      Btw...i wouldnt let the size of you BR be the deciding factor in when you move up...only for when you should move down...I think its better having a sarmple of atleast 1k STT's at a specific limit...then use your stats to decide if you ready to move up.
    • Pranas
      Joined: 24.02.2009 Posts: 1
      Hi, there.. :) well, i had similar situation. i played a bit 10NL SSS @ FT, then i find myself better at 1 table SNG's. so, i played those 1,25 $ SNG's for a start of climbing the mountains (LOL). I was doing pretty good, my ROI after 120 SNGs was 48% (now, i can't believe its possible due to variance factor), i actually had proper bankroll to play 2,25$ SNGs. and i had perfect sessions there with around the same ROI as in 1,25$ limit. i was watching videos by Mr. Chenny8888 also watching pro session on full tilt academy page and so on - everything was just perfect...and then i climbed up to 5,5$ ROI was not that bad - around 20 %, but then this came - SWING.....i've lost like 120$ for now :) moving down the limits and so on :) its just ... SICK.... session after session.. losing or break-even... then my friend gave me very good material - i have read very good book writen by Ian Taylor and Mattew Hilger "The Poker MIndset" :) actually i understood the reality of poker, and i just can say that it's very very hard work to become long-term winner, but who works hard - they have great success. I hope you will be fine and rebuild your BR as I am doing it now :)

      Best luck at tables :)
    • karmi
      Joined: 01.01.2009 Posts: 13
      Just thought id repost here, for any who are doubting their own swings.

      It seems for every downswing theres an upswing; from $50 up to $180 now with a 88% roi at $2 sng's this month. Bling bling; only over about 100 games though :D

      Sick heater possibly; but i certainly find $2 SnG's alot better then the $1 ones in terms of consistency. Alot of guys on $1 buy in just to shove every hand for example. $2 isnt much better, but I think its maybe a placebo for me to think people act a tiny bit better !

      Still worried about making the move to turbos due to variance. Anyone got any tips? Id say im TAG-Random player; with some moves thrown in. My gameplay is basic TAG but with some added aggression based on situation. I try not to play many hands, but when I do commit im usually trying to stack someone (and sometimes myself).

      ICM has come along heaps and bounds tho. Not meant to be a brag; just to anyone whos on a downswing I assure you it feels like you go on an upswing after. By upswing; I mean you get it in with the best and it holds up for a change and it feels great. Some 'bad' beats happen; but usually in retrospect its not a bad beat; my betting is off and I let them get there. Trapper becomes the trapee etc; for the ones where its out of my control I live and let live because it could be me doing the sucking out in future.

      Good luck on the tables =)