[NL2-NL10] 5/10 cent FH drawing hand

    • undercover82
      undercover82
      Bronze
      Joined: 09.12.2006 Posts: 813
      PartyPoker $10 NL Hold'em [color:#0000FF](10 handed)[/color] Recorded and converted with HandRecorder

      Preflop: Hero is CO with A:heart: , 9:heart:
      [color:#666666]1 folds[/color], UTG+1 calls $0.10, [color:#666666]4 folds[/color], Hero calls $0.10, [color:#FF0000]BU raises to $0.20[/color], [color:#666666]2 folds[/color], UTG+1 calls $0.10, Hero calls $0.10.

      Flop: ($75,00) T:heart: , 3:heart: , 2:diamond: [color:#0000FF](3 players)[/color]
      [color:#FF0000]UTG+1 bets $0.50[/color], Hero calls $0.50, [color:#FF0000]BU raises to $2[/color], UTG+1 folds, [color:#FF0000]Hero is All-In ($1.18)[/color].

      Turn: ($295,00) 6:heart: [color:#0000FF](2 players, 1 all-in)[/color]


      River: ($295,00) 5:spade: [color:#0000FF](2 players, 1 all-in)[/color]


      Final Pot: $295,00.



      (hope i got that right)

      using the extended sss strategy , is it a mistake to call the additional 10 cents bet ?
      Also was it worth calling the raises after the flop , or not? The pot odds analogy was like really close to the 2,2:1
  • 7 replies
    • Alaton
      Alaton
      Black
      Joined: 21.02.2006 Posts: 1,472
      Try to always add the stack sizes when posting hands.
      (do this by picking the 2+2-forum-Option when converting the hand)
      Seems like u have 1.88$ or 1,38$ here.
      (All-in from hero total or additional to the 0,50$ already put in the pot?)


      I hope I fixed the hand to how it was:

      [quote]Originally posted by undercover82
      PartyPoker $10 NL Hold'em [color:#0000FF](10 handed)[/color] Recorded and converted with HandRecorder

      Preflop: Hero is CO with A:heart: , 9:heart:
      [color:#666666]1 folds[/color], UTG+1 calls $0.10, [color:#666666]4 folds[/color], Hero calls $0.10, [color:#FF0000]BU raises to $0.20[/color], [color:#666666]2 folds[/color], UTG+1 calls $0.10, Hero calls $0.10.

      Flop: ($0,75) T:heart: , 3:heart: , 2:diamond: [color:#0000FF](3 players)[/color]
      [color:#FF0000]UTG+1 bets $0.50[/color], Hero calls $0.50, [color:#FF0000]BU raises to $2[/color], UTG+1 folds, [color:#FF0000]Hero is All-In ($1.18)[/color].

      Turn: ($4,61) 6:heart: [color:#0000FF](2 players, 1 all-in)[/color]


      River: ($4,61) 5:spade: [color:#0000FF](2 players, 1 all-in)[/color]


      Final Pot: $4,61.


      Case 1: 1,38$
      First of all, you should have already reloaded when having only 1,38$ left!

      Preflop it really depends on your stack size. If u only had 1,38$ when beginning the hand I would throw A9s in the CO away with just 1 limper in the pot.
      You invest a big portion of your stack with a pretty weak hand here and you only get 1:2,5 on your call here.
      With only 1 limper in the hand, your chances of getting paid when hitting a good flop decrease.
      In addition to this, the CO-Position allows 3 players behind you to raise, which puts you in a bad position.
      The call after the minraise is of course correct, you get 1:6,5 on your call here (0,20$ BU + 0,20$ UTG +0,10$ Hero +0,15$ Blinds =0,65$ with 0,10$ to call for you)

      On the Flop you now have 1,18$ left with a pot of 0,75$ and the nutflushdraw + 1 overcard (the ace) for a total of 12 outs. You can't be sure the ace will win the pot for you if you hit it, so I will count with 11 outs here.

      Chance of hitting Top pair or the flush on the turn and river :
      11/47 + (36/47)*(11/46) = 0,42
      So you should win the hand 42% of the times.
      That means you need pot odds of 1:2,4 on the flop.

      Chance of hitting Top pair or the flush on the turn:
      11:47 =0,23
      This calculates to pot odds of 1:4,4

      The flop is a difficult situation as not the preflop aggressor but the limper opens the pot here, you have to worry about the preflop-raiser raising behind you.

      Scenario 1: Calling 0,50$ bet.
      You get 1:2,5 on the flop with a pot of 1,25$ and 0,50$ to call. This is not enough to justify a call here(you are a 1:4,4 dogg to improve on the turn), but given the possibility of a raise behind you it is even worse here.

      [Side note: Calculating with implied odds(money you might get on the turn when hitting one of your outs)
      Lets assume you get the rest of your chips paid off if you hit your card on the turn: This changes your odds to 1,93$/0,50$ =1:3,86
      This approach is realistic, but even with getting the rest of you chips in on the turn when hitting your outs this call is still a bad call!]

      but lets go trough this case till the end..
      The Button raises you all-in here and UTG folds, as it is the pot is 2,43$ (don't make the mistake to count the money he overbets your stacksize!!) and its 0,68$ to call for you. Now it is a pretty easy call, as you can see both the turn and the river card with pot odds of 1:3,6 and you would only need 1:2,4 here.
      So just call and hope to catch one of your outs.

      Scenario 2: Fold
      Folding is one of the best option here in my opionen, you are sandwiched here between two players showing strength on previous betting and all you have right now is ace-high.

      Scenario 3: Raise all-in
      This would be a classic semi-bluff, with the advantage that you might drive the Button out of the pot.
      your odds on hitting your outs are just like before, 1:2,4
      The pot is 1,25$ to you and you push in 1,18$, when UTG calls the pot grows to 3,11$ with 1,18$ invested from you. This are odds of 3,11$/1,18$ = 1:2,6

      EV (Expected Value)= 0,42*(+1,93$) + 0,58(-1,18$) =0,13$

      So even without him folding even once this play would show a profit of 0,13$ on average.
      Of course you have to consider that the button could also call here, which would make our play even better, pushing the pot to 4,29$ with you having only invested 1,18$. This are odds of 4,29$/1,18$ = 1:3,6

      EV = 0,42*(+3.11$) + 0,58(-1,18$) = 0,62$

      This would show a profit of very good 0,62$ on average.
      Of course we totally ignored our opponents could have a set or have the ace dominated etc. which would decrease our outs!
      Lets calculate with UTG calling every allin-raise and BU calling 25% of the time:

      EV = 0,75*(+0,13$)+ 0,25*(+0,62$) = 0,25$

      So we show a profit here, but I think the difference between folding and pushing all-in is not as big as it appears, I'm going to try the calculation with a more realistic approach for our outs later.
      Right now the All-in move seems to be best.



      Case 2 : 1,88$

      With 1,88$ calling in the CO might be an option though I preffer having 2 limpers in front of me.
      When having called, calling a minraise here is of course also the right play.

      On the flop you have 1,68$ and the pot is 0,75$



      PS: STILL WORKING ON THE REPLY BUT NO TIME RIGHT NOW, GONNA FINISH IT LATER!
    • undercover82
      undercover82
      Bronze
      Joined: 09.12.2006 Posts: 813
      hey thx for your time.
      Also can you tell me the exact math types so that i can calculate the pot odds , outs etc on my own ?

      Here are the stacks btw
      UTG ($19.42)
      SB ($12.05)
      Hero ($1.88)
      MP3 ($9.70)
      MP2 ($2.05)
      BU ($4.70)
      BB ($1.90)
      UTG+2 ($22.20)
      MP1 ($9.80)
      UTG+1 ($9.90)

      To be honest i wonder how i only won 2.9 dollars in the pot when i went all in and my starting money was 1.88
    • Alaton
      Alaton
      Black
      Joined: 21.02.2006 Posts: 1,472
      Originally posted by undercover82
      hey thx for your time.
      Also can you tell me the exact math types so that i can calculate the pot odds , outs etc on my own ?

      Here are the stacks btw
      UTG ($19.42)
      SB ($12.05)
      Hero ($1.88)
      MP3 ($9.70)
      MP2 ($2.05)
      BU ($4.70)
      BB ($1.90)
      UTG+2 ($22.20)
      MP1 ($9.80)
      UTG+1 ($9.90)

      To be honest i wonder how i only won 2.9 dollars in the pot when i went all in and my starting money was 1.88
      Fixed the pot now, finally the hand should be right ;)

      Now to your questions :

      1)Counting outs:
      This is pretty easy and you can master this pretty fast (and you should ;) ).
      An out is defined as a card on the turn or the river which will improve your hand to the best hand. Which cards you count as an out is always a suggestion and you can't be 100% sure about counting right, but often you only need rough estimations.

      Some examples :

      a) You hold a flush draw on the flop, how many outs do you have ?

      We play with a deck of 52 cards in 4 colors, so there are 52/4 = 13 cards of each color in the deck.
      Since we hold a flushdraw here, 4 cards of my color are already visible to you.
      This leaves 13-4 = 9 other cards in the deck to help us, meaning we have 9 outs to improve on the turn or the river.

      b) You hold a GutshotStraightdraw (1 card missing to a straight, for example you hold KQ and the board shows T93, any J gives you a straight here) and 2 Overcards to the board, how many outs do you have ?

      The GutshotStraightdraw gives us 4 outs, as each card is represented 4 times in each deck. The 2 Overcards give us 3 outs each because 4 cards are in the deck, but one of them already in our hands.
      So this calculates to a total of 4+3+3 = 10 outs.
      In an example like this, you should watch out, since hitting your overcards does not garantuee you to win the pot. In such cases you often do what is called "discounting outs". Discounting outs of course is only based on judgement, but in general you can very well discount the 6 outs from the overcards to 4 outs.(If a flushdraw is possible for example)
      So in this case you can count with 8 outs.


      2)Calculate pot odds:

      I already did this in my previous post, but I understand it's a bit hard to understand in the beginning.
      So here is how we do this:
      Count together all money which is in the pot right now (including bets made at this betting round) and compare them to your price to call the bet.
      Pot odds:
      "Total money in the pot" / "Price to call" = x
      your pot odds are 1:x in this case.

      Example :

      Some hand preflop, you are on the button with 1 caller in front of you. What are your pot odds?

      Counting the total money in the pot :
      0,10$ (limper) + 0,10$ (Big Blind) + 0,05$ (Small Blind) = 0,25$

      Price to call: 0,10$

      "Total money in the pot" / "Price to call" = 0,25$ / 0,10$ = 2,5

      Pot odds: 1:2,5


      So this isn't too hard I believe, now how do you calculate outs to odds ?

      Well that's just as easy:
      We take the flush draw for an example, giving us 9 outs.

      our odds on turn:
      There is one card to come, the deck has 52 - 2(our holecards) - 3(the flop) = 47 cards left. 9 cards will give us the best hand.

      So our chance to hit an out on the turn is 9/47 = 0,19 (meaning 19%)

      Our pot odds are simply calculated with 1/ "chance to hit our out" = x
      our odds are then 1:x

      In our example this leads to 1 / 0,19 = 5,3
      Pot Odds: 1:5,3


      our odds on the turn and the river:
      There are 2 cards to come, the deck has 47 cards left before the turn and it will have 46 cards left before the river.
      9 cards give us the best hand.

      our chance to hit on the turn : 9/47 = 0,19
      our chance to hit on the river: 9/46 = 0,20

      We only need our out on the river if we didn't hit it on the turn already, so we calculate our chance on the river with the chance of not hitting an out on the turn:
      1 - 9/47 = 38/47
      => (38/47)*(9/46) = 0,16

      Out total chance adds up to:
      "Chance to hit on the turn" + "Chance to hit on the river if we didn't hit on the turn" = "Total chance of hitting our outs on turn or river"
      => 9/47 + (38/47)*(9/46) = 0,19 + 0,16 = 0,35 (meaning 35%)

      Our odds: 1 / "chance to hit your out" = 1 / 0,35 = 2,8

      Pot odds: 1:2,8


      I hope I could clear some things up, not sure if everything is 100% correct, as I didn't get odds of 1:2,2 for the flush draw, I'm gonna look over it sometime.
      And sorry that I commented on the wrong stack size for your hand, but it's also interesting to see how the lower stack size affects our play.
      And also you should notice, how the evaluation of the hand changes on every decision you have to make.

      I'm trying to comment on the 1,88$ stack size tomorrow but enough for the day.

      Good Luck
    • sandman2080
      sandman2080
      Bronze
      Joined: 04.03.2006 Posts: 5,660
      Hey Alaton: You really must have to much time to do analysis that go into depth that much ;)

      But nice work! I think you should ask for compensation from Pokerstrategy :D
    • rasputin
      rasputin
      Bronze
      Joined: 03.02.2006 Posts: 176
      hello.
      i think i've found one little mistake in your calculation.

      Chance of hitting Top pair or the flush on the turn and river :
      11/47 + (36/47)*(11/46) = 0,42
      So you should win the hand 42% of the times.
      That means you need pot odds of 1:2,4 on the flop.


      The probability is 0.42, but the pod-odds are then calculated in the following way: (1/0.42) - 1 = 1.4 --> odds of 1.4:1
      For example, say you go all-in on the flop with a 20% chance to win the hand. Then the pod-odds of this move are 4:1, as you are winning in 1 case out of 5 cases, as you certainly know. (1:0.2 = 5, or 100:20 which is the same, and 5-1=4 to gain the odds-expression of 4:1).
    • rasputin
      rasputin
      Bronze
      Joined: 03.02.2006 Posts: 176
      hello.
      i think i've found one little mistake in your calculation.

      Chance of hitting Top pair or the flush on the turn and river :
      11/47 + (36/47)*(11/46) = 0,42
      So you should win the hand 42% of the times.
      That means you need pot odds of 1:2,4 on the flop.


      The probability is 0.42, but the pod-odds are then calculated in the following way: (1/0.42) - 1 = 1.4 --> odds of 1.4:1. So we need pod-odds of at least 1.4:1 on the flop for a call being profitable [if we really have that many outs(11)].

      For example, say you go all-in on the flop with a 20% chance to win the hand. Then the pod-odds of this move are 4:1, as you are winning in 1 case out of 5 cases, as you certainly know. (1:0.2 = 5, or 100:20 which is the same, and 5-1=4 to gain the odds-expression of 4:1).

      Hopefully i've not made any mistake either.
    • Alaton
      Alaton
      Black
      Joined: 21.02.2006 Posts: 1,472
      Originally posted by rasputin
      hello.
      i think i've found one little mistake in your calculation.

      Chance of hitting Top pair or the flush on the turn and river :
      11/47 + (36/47)*(11/46) = 0,42
      So you should win the hand 42% of the times.
      That means you need pot odds of 1:2,4 on the flop.


      The probability is 0.42, but the pod-odds are then calculated in the following way: (1/0.42) - 1 = 1.4 --> odds of 1.4:1. So we need pod-odds of at least 1.4:1 on the flop for a call being profitable [if we really have that many outs(11)].

      For example, say you go all-in on the flop with a 20% chance to win the hand. Then the pod-odds of this move are 4:1, as you are winning in 1 case out of 5 cases, as you certainly know. (1:0.2 = 5, or 100:20 which is the same, and 5-1=4 to gain the odds-expression of 4:1).

      Hopefully i've not made any mistake either.

      Thanks, you are right. I got that wrong.
      I'm gonna try to go through the other case and do it (hopefully) right this time :)
      Hope I find some time this weekend.