How much can a downswing last??

    • karmolll
      karmolll
      Bronze
      Joined: 11.07.2008 Posts: 101
      Hi i play real money for 9 mounths and i had many ups and downs but this one seems to never end ... It last for 30k hands and i lost 1500$ at nl50 with BSS and still no singn that it can rich an end , only a few breack even sessions and a few very rare sessions in witch a manage to recover 1 or 2 BI than my legs are cut losing another 4 5 and so on ...
      How much cant a downswing last , i had some of them in witch i lost more than 1500$ but never one as long as this one ..
      what can i do ?? Can it last forever?? Should cash out all my BR and leave Mansion forever or should i keep playing??
  • 16 replies
    • Gafny
      Gafny
      Bronze
      Joined: 05.11.2008 Posts: 337
      standard answer: take 1 week off , analyze your game , read articles/books and get back in the game with new motivation.

      imo its always nice to switch rooms as it gives you a fresh start =) Mansion's bonus system is bullsh!t when you get past the first deposit one... i recommend everest :p oh and ive seen swings last much longer than 30k hands :p
    • StusMagic
      StusMagic
      Bronze
      Joined: 05.01.2009 Posts: 187
      iv got 60k one and still counting but im sss
    • Kruppe
      Kruppe
      Black
      Joined: 20.02.2008 Posts: 2,144
      well as you probably know, the probability of it lasting a certain # of hands depends on stuff like your winrate and style. it can last forever, it's just very unlikely. just analyse hands, and if you can somehow improve your game and your expected winrate by maybe 1BB/100, that can help a lot.
    • LemOn36
      LemOn36
      Coach
      Coach
      Joined: 07.02.2009 Posts: 1,348
      Move down, regardless of your BR.
    • TribunCaesar
      TribunCaesar
      Bronze
      Joined: 29.04.2007 Posts: 13,264
      Just some thoughts:

      Downswings do not have a fixed shape. You can't predict future results by having a look at past results. How long will it last then? Well, nobody can say. Mabye you start to recover tomorrow, maybe next week....who knows.....maybe you recover and drop right into the next downswing.
      Improve your game and work on it every day. Make sure you do not make wrong assumptions due to the bad results you had lately.
      btw: That's how you should think about downswings - they are just a period of results that are worse then expected. This happens to everybody. Get used to it.

      btw: make sure you are able to beat the limit, ther are players who can't actually beat the limit but say: " I am on a downswing"

      Best regards,
      TribunCaesar
    • karmolll
      karmolll
      Bronze
      Joined: 11.07.2008 Posts: 101
      Thx alot guys for your advices , i ll keep playing there since i have no doubt that i can beat those limits since I played there ( nl50) about 5 mounts and i also made a nice profit at nl100 at Mansion playing about 100k hands and i m sure i can beat those as well
      The reason for going down from NL100 to Nl50 was also a big downswing and i decided to withdraw half of my BR and go down a limit and I started to grind SH tables and i managed to make a realy nice profit of 2k in about 23 24 days while playing 70k hands and i was ready to go back to nl100 but this downswing started and I decide to withdraw again and continue playing Nl50 since it s much more safer for my BR .
      I don t have to go down a limit since I use an personal BRM because i like doing things much more safer than u advice me to .. :) I still have 60 BI for nl50 BSS and I also have the BR to play nl100 but i don t like the 25-30BI BRm because in my own experience i discovered that 30BI are very easy to lose online while playing 7-8 tables.
      As abut downswings and upseings I realized that online poker has nothing to do with real poker and random cards
      Poker is all about some shapes that are set by the soft in witch u have to lose or u can win and the only thing u can do is to maximize your profit nd minimize your losses in this specific perionds
      Let s take as an example the steps that everybody makes to higher limits and they all complain that can t beat that limit and have to go back to lower limits and build again the BR and try to make that step again . The reason for not beeing able to make that step is not that 1 random guy can t beat that limit ( in the end there is a limit for everyone that can t be beaten ) but usualy those insucceses are caused by the dealers that in most of chases don t alow that guy to win money at that limit no mather how good or bad he plays
      The randomness of cards beeing delt on online tables is under 20% in my opinion (at least on Mansion where i played over 500k hands or even more ) . there are very few random suck outs or ramdom cold decks . Most of the time u find yourself in a wining session or in a lossing one and u definetly can see that after about 100 200 hands . U rarely ramdomly lose a hand or win one and I think that WE ALL KNOW THAT u don t randomly lose your AA in a random session ( it sometimes happens and it s normal ) but u usualy lose them in those sessions in witch u lose them every time and any other 2 cards as well and any other monster hand that should have made a prety nice profit for u . this is not randomly just happen because in an 1k hands session u should definetly lose some pots and win some but if u take take a deeper look u ll realize that this rarely happens and that u can find alot of sessions in witch u can t win an pot of more than 15BB and that one without showdown as well and u ll also realize that in this kind of sessions your air C-bets are called or raised much more often by some guys that always have it .
      So in my oppinion online poker is all about the ability of handle this kind of shapes and this is why I like to use a much more safer BRM and I prefer to grind some limits that I can easyly beat than to try to make those steps to the higher limits where i know i m not alowed to win .

      SRY FOR MY BAD ENGLISH
    • nafar84
      nafar84
      Bronze
      Joined: 20.09.2008 Posts: 546
      So you're saying that a player can either be marked as "needs to win" or "needs to lose" by the software. What happens when 6 players who all "need to lose" sit in the same table?
    • Atoks
      Atoks
      Bronze
      Joined: 01.06.2008 Posts: 1,354
      Yeah I'm struggling with that one myself. While it's true there are days when u simply can't win I find it very difficult to believe the reason for this is some software that uses a slider to decide when I had enough winings and moves it to losing. Simple fact is that "downswings" aren't just software or dealer related. A lot of it is going on in ur head. And if u can put ur problems, emotions and other things that distract u away from ur poker then ur likely to experience far milder donwsings. Poker is a game of chance where u are lucky enough to be able to use ur head and tactics to outplay the other ppl playing the game and make enviable profits ... but only if u are able to focus completly on the game and the situations it presents.

      It's all in ur head!
    • roswellx
      roswellx
      Bronze
      Joined: 05.12.2008 Posts: 599
      I aggree that it's all in our heads and plus emotions. I started feeling the difference of concentration when I'm beating the same players who were beating me everytime we came accross. The way I play the hands changed becaused I was focused. Concentration, focus is the most important thing while playing online since you don't have facial reads. I would recommend, reducing the number of tables and try to really understand what other players are trying to accomplish. This worked for me.
    • Termi8r
      Termi8r
      Bronze
      Joined: 04.02.2008 Posts: 408
      From Elements of Poker by Tommy Angelo:

      "All of my good streaks and all of my bad streaks of every length and depth have had one thing in common. They did not exist in your mind. They only existed in my mind. And this is true for everyone's winning and losing streaks. None of them actually exist. They are all mental fabrication, like past and future. Everything that ever happens happens in the present tense. But how can you have a "streak" in the present tense? You can't. And therefore, if you are in the present tense, which, in fact, at this time, you are, then at this moment there is no streak in your life. There is no inherent existence to streaks. The streak is there when you think about it, and when you stop thinking about it, it goes away. It blossoms withers, all in your mind. And when your mind invents a streak, you believe it exists, because you believe what your mind tells you. But the truth is there is only the hand you are playing."
    • Dragar
      Dragar
      Bronze
      Joined: 09.09.2008 Posts: 2,214
      Originally posted by karmolll
      The randomness of cards beeing delt on online tables is under 20% in my opinion (at least on Mansion where i played over 500k hands or even more ) . there are very few random suck outs or ramdom cold decks . Most of the time u find yourself in a wining session or in a lossing one and u definetly can see that after about 100 200 hands . U rarely ramdomly lose a hand or win one and I think that WE ALL KNOW THAT u don t randomly lose your AA in a random session ( it sometimes happens and it s normal ) but u usualy lose them in those sessions in witch u lose them every time and any other 2 cards as well and any other monster hand that should have made a prety nice profit for u . this is not randomly just happen because in an 1k hands session u should definetly lose some pots and win some but if u take take a deeper look u ll realize that this rarely happens and that u can find alot of sessions in witch u can t win an pot of more than 15BB and that one without showdown as well and u ll also realize that in this kind of sessions your air C-bets are called or raised much more often by some guys that always have it .
      So in my oppinion online poker is all about the ability of handle this kind of shapes and this is why I like to use a much more safer BRM and I prefer to grind some limits that I can easyly beat than to try to make those steps to the higher limits where i know i m not alowed to win .

      This makes absolutly no sense. I frequently have sessions where I am down in the beginning, play on and am up at the end.
      There are no winning or losing sessions and quitting because you think you in a losing one after 100 hands is really wrong.

      Poker flows.... there is no beginning and no end, there are just hands and each hand is unrelated to the hand before or after it. Hence downswings do not exist. Just because you lose AA to KK and then AK vs QQ in 50 hands does not mean your going to have a losing session.

      Like this morning I was down 53$ and my EV said I was supposed to be up by 16$. Everything that went wrong did go wrong, whenever I push QQ or AK someone has AA or KK etc. I just played on during the day. I ended 107$ up (EV is at 163$). So how does that fit in with your thinking that I should have quit when I was down since obviously I either get a suckout or a cooler since I am not allowed to win today?

      Downswings do not exist, we just make them up so we feel better about whats happening.
    • karmolll
      karmolll
      Bronze
      Joined: 11.07.2008 Posts: 101
      Ok I don t want to argue about this with anyone here , I just said my oppinion about how it goes for me and about how i bealive online poker works , because I realy have some strong reasons to think this way , not only from my active experience but also from lots of things that i see at the tables while i m playing and i m not involved in a hand , but as i said I don t want to convince anyone about that because I m convinced that it s better to not see this things because it can t have any positive results at the poker table but i can t change my poit of wiew because i ve seen and i ve experienced too much things that proved me this.
      The good part is that I manage to keep this things very far from the poker tables and very very rarely when they come into my mind while i m playing I end the session and take a breack because as i said before I know that they can t have any positive efects on my game.
      And i don t quit a session just because i lost 1 big pot or 2 after 100-200 hands i usualy play sessions of 700-1000 hands even if i win or if i lose and i don t run from the table because i m scared of that kind of period because i learned (in an 3 mounths period of breack even in witch i lost and on 700-900$ more than 10 times) that no mater what u do u must folow a line given by the soft and just hope for better days comming faster . I do sometimes leave the tables when i lose 5 - 6 BI in a very short period like 300-400 hands because I feel like i m starting to tilt a litle and i know it can t give me any good resultbecause i had sesiions in witch i lost even more than 10BI .
      Afterall i m very happy with my overall results at poker but I m very dissapointed about the way things went in order to get this results because I was proven that there is a bigger force in this game than the skill or the good play that can lead things in certain directions and this is the luck given by the dealer

      Gl at the tables everyone and I hope u ll never see this kind of PARANOYA in your online poker carrer :) ) because I must give credit to a friend of mine that sayd : the less u know the happyer u leave .
    • nafar84
      nafar84
      Bronze
      Joined: 20.09.2008 Posts: 546
      Did you see how many times Daniel Negreanu ran into quads or otherwise got coolered in all the seasons he's played on HSP? This didn't happen to any other player, and if he was playing online he'd be convinced that the "software" designed this for him.

      The truth of the matter is, it's all random. It's all chaos. And because it's all random, weird coincidences WILL happen - it's a mathematical certainty that they will. There is the old example that if we get an infinite number of monkeys and give each of them a typewriter, and leave them for an infinite amount of time, then it is CERTAIN that we will see proper words and sentences... and who knows maybe even a beautiful poem!

      But our minds always seek to make connections between unrelated things because this is human nature: we are obsessed with patterns and finding meanings behind everything.
    • Ejeckt
      Ejeckt
      Bronze
      Joined: 06.12.2008 Posts: 517
      Originally posted by nafar84

      The truth of the matter is, it's all random. It's all chaos. And because it's all random, weird coincidences WILL happen - it's a mathematical certainty that they will. There is the old example that if we get an infinite number of monkeys and give each of them a typewriter, and leave them for an infinite amount of time, then it is CERTAIN that we will see proper words and sentences... and who knows maybe even a beautiful poem!

      But our minds always seek to make connections between unrelated things because this is human nature: we are obsessed with patterns and finding meanings behind everything.
      Whoah! Deep :tongue:
    • Dragar
      Dragar
      Bronze
      Joined: 09.09.2008 Posts: 2,214
      Originally posted by karmolll
      no mater what u do u must folow a line given by the soft and just hope for better days comming faster .


      I was proven that there is a bigger force in this game than the skill or the good play that can lead things in certain directions and this is the luck given by the dealer

      Gl at the tables everyone and I hope u ll never see this kind of PARANOYA in your online poker carrer :) ) because I must give credit to a friend of mine that sayd : the less u know the happyer u leave .

      No offense... but your diamond. How can you think like this?
      This is like how micro limit losing players think..... that the software decides if they win or lose.

      There is no luck. You are very paranoid for some reason.
    • Berzerger
      Berzerger
      Bronze
      Joined: 24.03.2008 Posts: 910
      Originally posted by karmolll
      I just said my oppinion about how it goes for me and about how i bealive online poker works
      be⋅lieve
         /bɪˈliv/ [bi-leev] verb, -lieved, -liev⋅ing.
      –verb (used without object)
      1. to have confidence in the truth, the existence, or the reliability of something, although without absolute proof that one is right in doing so.

      In other words, you don't know how the RNG algorithms are coded, and it is plausible that your observations are simply misinterpretations of variance. That is my opinion.

      Originally posted by karmolll
      I was proven that there is a bigger force in this game than the skill or the good play that can lead things in certain directions and this is the luck given by the dealer
      , also known as variance. I don't see how the software can just turn on the doomswitch for you for a certain period of time/hands, nor do I see any reason whatsoever for the software to do so.

      Originally posted by karmolll
      the less u know the happyer u leave .
      ... which I gladly refute by quoting Michel Foucault: "Knowledge is power."