[NL2-NL10] NL10 FR: 88 Calling for set value

    • maya1984
      maya1984
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.12.2008 Posts: 1,741
      Hand converted with online PokerStrategy.com hand converter:

      $0.05/$0.1 No-Limit Hold'em (9 handed)

      Known players:
      MP2(Hero):
      $10.65
      MP3:
      $11.50
      CO:
      $9.80
      BU:
      $10.00
      SB:
      $8.60
      BB:
      $19.15
      UTG1:
      $9.60
      UTG2:
      $10.25
      MP1:
      $2.75

      Preflop: Hero is MP2 with 8, 8.
      CO posts deadblind, 2 folds, MP1 calls $0.10, Hero raises to $0.6, 2 folds, BU calls $0.60, SB calls $0.55, BB raises to $2.8, MP1 calls $2.65(All-In), Hero calls $2.20, 2 folds.

      Flop: ($9.65) 5, 8, J (3 players)
      BB checks, Hero bets $7.85, BB calls $7.85.

      Turn: ($25.35) A (3 players)

      River: ($25.35) 2 (3 players)

      Final Pot: $25.35.

      Results follow (highlight to see):

      Hero shows a flush, ace high (8s 8h)
      BB shows a flush, ace high (Ah Ac)
      MP1 shows a flush, ace high (9s Th)
      BB wins with a flush, ace high (Ah Ac).
      MP1 wins with a flush, ace high (9s Th).
      Hero wins with a flush, ace high (8s 8h).

      Funny result, I have decent odds to call preflop but should I be worried about the other two players in front of me?
  • 10 replies
    • Mstlc
      Mstlc
      Bronze
      Joined: 14.03.2009 Posts: 4,676
      Pre-flop: fold imo... it's a heavy re-raise and you definitely do not have the odds to call there, not even remotely close.
    • dallievas
      dallievas
      Bronze
      Joined: 30.11.2007 Posts: 822
      Hi,
      Fold preflop,definitely have no odds to call.
      not even remotely close.

      Should read that article about that call 20 rule :)
      GL :)
    • maya1984
      maya1984
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.12.2008 Posts: 1,741
      My impplied odds are 23.5:2.6 = 9:1. The odds for hitting a set on the flop are 8:1 so basically I have the right odds to make the call.
    • Michailewic
      Michailewic
      Bronze
      Joined: 28.04.2008 Posts: 1,418
      :You do not have odds to call a raise. If MP1 called and was full stack, you might sometimes call for set value.

      But here your calculation is wrong. You say you have implies 9:1. But to call profitably, you would have to stack villain everytime you hit your set. And that will not happen. If he has AK, you will not succees everytime. And if he has QQ+, then he will suck you out in at least 14% cases (and you will not always stack QQ or KK).

      And why should you be worry about the other 2 players? They are not going to raise. But they are probably going to fold.
    • maya1984
      maya1984
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.12.2008 Posts: 1,741
      Originally posted by Michailewic
      :You do not have odds to call a raise. If MP1 called and was full stack, you might sometimes call for set value.

      But here your calculation is wrong. You say you have implies 9:1. But to call profitably, you would have to stack villain everytime you hit your set. And that will not happen. If he has AK, you will not succees everytime. And if he has QQ+, then he will suck you out in at least 14% cases (and you will not always stack QQ or KK).
      How can you be sure 100% that you will stack someone?
      Generally speaking If I assume I will 100% get him all in after I hit my set, do I getting the right odds to call?

      Originally posted by MichailewicAnd why should you be worry about the other 2 players? They are not going to raise. But they are probably going to fold.
      How can you be certain that non of them are slow playing a monster hand? (and might raise now) Is it because they just call my 60c raise?
    • Jaissica
      Jaissica
      Bronze
      Joined: 10.02.2009 Posts: 1,385
      Maya,

      when recalling a 3-bet for set odds you consider your stack and the villain's stack.

      While people talk about call20 its not really required in a 3 bet situation where you were the original raiser. Call10-call12 is about the BE line here as it is exponentially more likely that villains will stack off in a 3bet pot (only regular 3bet hand that generally wont stack off every-single-flop is AK, and the pot grows so huge that a standard conti/protection/value bet commits villain to the pot if he has an overpair / makes a pair with AK).

      Now, you called $2.20 into a pot sized 7.45 with future implieds 7.85 for a total of 15.30. This means you didnt even get 8-1 on your recall here for hitting a set.

      If you were full stacked your future implies would have been $9.35 more, or a total of $24.75, giving you about 11-1 and making the recall (just) +EV. This is why you should always rebuy to full stack when playing BSS - so you dont miss out on profitable opportunities.

      Other people in the pot dont matter with regards to deciding if you have odds to call. if you hit you expect to stack off against the PFA; if someone else stacks off its because they hit their own draw. That should scare you rather than be counted as possible additional income :)

      But as others posted, the other ppl in the pot do matter in regards to deciding if a call is safe. Generally in this case it would be enough to tip the scale over to a fold even if we had a full stack (~11-1) simply because we can find better times to re-call for set value than this. Recall for set value only with TT+ in marginal value situations so that you can have some strong chance to be over rag flops and bet out with a little confidence :)
    • maya1984
      maya1984
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.12.2008 Posts: 1,741
      Originally posted by Jaissica

      Now, you called $2.20 into a pot sized 7.45 with future implieds 7.85 for a total of 15.30. This means you didnt even get 8-1 on your recall here for hitting a set.
      When I'm calculating my my implied odds shouldn't I look at the all pot which will be 23.1? (23.1 = (total pot - amount of money called) = 25.35 - 2.2)[/quote]
      Originally posted by Jaissica
      If you were full stacked your future implies would have been $9.35 more, or a total of $24.75, giving you about 11-1 and making the recall (just) +EV. This is why you should always rebuy to full stack when playing BSS - so you dont miss out on profitable opportunities.
      I was fully stacked at that time... :)

      Originally posted by Jaissica
      Other people in the pot dont matter with regards to deciding if you have odds to call. if you hit you expect to stack off against the PFA; if someone else stacks off its because they hit their own draw. That should scare you rather than be counted as possible additional income :)
      I don't mind them calling at all, My problem is if they decide to reraise.
    • Michailewic
      Michailewic
      Bronze
      Joined: 28.04.2008 Posts: 1,418
      At first, you did not calculated your imlied odds correctly.

      [It is the amount in the pot (without your call) + villain's remaining effective stack] : the amount to call

      i.e. (7,45 + 8,45) : 2,2 = 15,9 : 2,2 = 7,227:1.

      Your odds to hit the set on the flop are 7,5:1.

      As it results from the above, your preflop call was not profitable even if you were sure you would always stack off the villain.

      Moreover, if we find him to have QQ, KK or AA, if you hit your set, he will win in approx. in 14% of all cases, which means that:

      EV = - [probability of not hitting the set]*[the amount to call] + [the probability you will hit your set] * {-[the probability you lose if you hit your set]*[the amount you will lose, i.e. the amount to call + the amount of the remaining effective stack] + [the probability you will win if you hit your set]*[the amount you will win if hit your set]}

      = (-0,88)*2,2 + 0.12*[(- 0,14)*10,05 + 0,86*15,9] = -0,46;

      which is bad. And we did not include rake which would be even worse.

      Due to the fact that he would suck out on you sometimes when you hit your set, the implied odds 9:1 would not be sufficient for +EV call.
    • maya1984
      maya1984
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.12.2008 Posts: 1,741
      Finally, a satisfying answer. :)
      10x
    • Jaissica
      Jaissica
      Bronze
      Joined: 10.02.2009 Posts: 1,385
      Ah, I see, I was looking at this and thinking it was NL20 due to villain's double stack.

      You dont look at the entire called pot including your own money, you look at the amount you have to call and the amount you could win with the call, which is all money currently in the pot + all money remaining in villains stack (capped at what you can cover with your own stack, if he is deeper than you).

      So its still pot before your call + remaining villain stack you can win / amount you must call, as Michail laid out in a better way than mine :)

      In a standard situation you would only be raising to 40c and villain would be 3-betting to $1.20, leaving you 80c to call and a clear +EV call to set mine, but this was a 60c raise with limpers in front then a $2.80 squeeze with cold callers following the raise... extraordinary situation and a clear fold without something that can still be strong postflop unimproved (JJ+).