[NL2-NL10] NL200 A9o 3bet LAGssp

    • Gerv
      Gerv
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.05.2008 Posts: 17,678
      No-Limit Hold'em, $2.00 BB (7 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

      saw flop

      UTG ($198)
      MP1 ($43)

      MP3 ($49.10)


      CO ($140.95)
      Hero (Button) ($32)
      SB ($363.15)
      BB ($80)

      Preflop: Hero is Button with 9, A
      2 folds, MP2 bets $8, 1 fold, Hero raises $32 (All-In), 3 folds

      I see at least 50% FE and against his calling range I have 33%~ but would you instant 3bet when you look at his ATS or do an EV calculation like I did on the spot?

      - Gerv
  • 10 replies
    • wuusaa
      wuusaa
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.05.2007 Posts: 455
      A9 is a fold against 20-25% & 50%FE
      but i push AT+,55+,KTs+,QTs+JTs here
    • Gerv
      Gerv
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.05.2008 Posts: 17,678
      But his CO ATS is like 60% thus his Mp3 oR can also be like 45%~ especially when a SSplayer is sitting on the BTN.

      Right?
    • wuusaa
      wuusaa
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.05.2007 Posts: 455
      but he is MP2?!
      & you have just 1800 hands
    • Gerv
      Gerv
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      Joined: 07.05.2008 Posts: 17,678
      Originally posted by wuusaa
      but he is MP2?!
      & you have just 1800 hands
      He is MP3, converter did it wrong (Mp3 was sitting out making this Villain Mp3)

      I think 1.8k hands is enough to determine ATS of someone with <2% variance
    • burek2000
      burek2000
      Bronze
      Joined: 16.11.2007 Posts: 3,105
      Villain's MP PFR and openraise differ quite a lot and I think it's mostly because of steals from MP3, also looking at BU and CO openraise he surely likes to steal. So, if I was to put him on a range I'd give him ~40-45 MP3 ORL meaning A9 is a clear push despite the FE. So, nice hand.

      There's just one thing, that's actually all presumptions, because info we have is MP openraise 22 meaning A9 is a fold, so I would suggest simply looking at his MP3 openraise(at lease Elephant support's that feature) which should be pretty decent after 1.8k hands and make a back-uped decision. More presumptions = more variance.
    • DaPhunk
      DaPhunk
      Bronze
      Joined: 01.03.2008 Posts: 2,805
      Originally posted by burek2000
      There's just one thing, that's actually all presumptions, because info we have is MP openraise 22 meaning A9 is a fold
      I Disagree. I Provide Two Examples For you;

      1) If he openraises 22% and calls say 7.4% we have aproximately 66% FE. Then our Equity and EV may look similar to this (Slightly adjusted PokerStove Ranges)=


      equity win tie pots won pots tied
      Hand 0: 30.820% 27.71% 03.11% 449805084 50492862.00 { A9o }
      Hand 1: 69.180% 66.07% 03.11% 1072473384 50492862.00 { TT+, A8s+, KQs, QJs, AJo+ }

      EV;
      Villain Folds = 0.66 x $11 = $7.26
      Villain Calls = 0.33 x [(0.308 x ($40 winnings ($3 deducted as guess at rake))-(0.692 x $32 loss)] = -$3.24

      Total = +$4.018
      So Push.

      2) If He Openraises 22% and calls say 11% we have 50% FE. Then our Equity looks similar to this =

      equity win tie pots won pots tied
      Hand 0: 35.072% 32.76% 02.31% 821310852 57874296.00 { A9o }
      Hand 1: 64.928% 62.62% 02.31% 1569753612 57874296.00 { 66+, A9s+, KJs+, QJs, ATo+, KQo }

      EV;
      Villain Folds = 0.5 x $11 = $5.5
      Villain Calls = 0.5 x [(0.35 x $40)-(0.65 x $32)] = -$3.4

      Total = +$2.1
      So Push

      (If he calls with 15% you have +$1.58 EV)

      Of Course In Game Noting How much He Steals I think this is a pretty Standard Push. If I need Inspiration in My Decision I check one of my Charts. (I have Xarry's Equity Chart, The SSS Adjusted ReRaise Range Chart, And the Restealing Chart all printed off and Handily Accessible Next to my PC)
    • burek2000
      burek2000
      Bronze
      Joined: 16.11.2007 Posts: 3,105
      Originally posted by DaPhunk
      I Disagree. I Provide Two Examples For you;

      1) If he openraises 22% and calls say 7.4% we have aproximately 66% FE. Then our Equity and EV may look similar to this (Slightly adjusted PokerStove Ranges)=


      equity win tie pots won pots tied
      Hand 0: 30.820% 27.71% 03.11% 449805084 50492862.00 { A9o }
      Hand 1: 69.180% 66.07% 03.11% 1072473384 50492862.00 { TT+, A8s+, KQs, QJs, AJo+ }

      EV;
      Villain Folds = 0.66 x $11 = $7.26
      Villain Calls = 0.33 x [(0.308 x ($40 winnings ($3 deducted as guess at rake))-(0.692 x $32 loss)] = -$3.24

      Total = +$4.018
      So Push.

      2) If He Openraises 22% and calls say 11% we have 50% FE. Then our Equity looks similar to this =

      equity win tie pots won pots tied
      Hand 0: 35.072% 32.76% 02.31% 821310852 57874296.00 { A9o }
      Hand 1: 64.928% 62.62% 02.31% 1569753612 57874296.00 { 66+, A9s+, KJs+, QJs, ATo+, KQo }

      EV;
      Villain Folds = 0.5 x $11 = $5.5
      Villain Calls = 0.5 x [(0.35 x $40)-(0.65 x $32)] = -$3.4

      Total = +$2.1
      So Push

      (If he calls with 15% you have +$1.58 EV)

      Of Course In Game Noting How much He Steals I think this is a pretty Standard Push. If I need Inspiration in My Decision I check one of my Charts. (I have Xarry's Equity Chart, The SSS Adjusted ReRaise Range Chart, And the Restealing Chart all printed off and Handily Accessible Next to my PC)
      Nice post. I agree you are right. I however usually want to stay on the safe side and always look for reraise ranges that have 50+% equity, so I do well even if villain would play "perfect" versus me. For instance, if villain put us on such loose range as A9o we shouldn't get any FE at all and then our A9o wouldn't do so well. On the contrary you can't expect such fish to play perfect game and you can push. :f_grin:
    • wuusaa
      wuusaa
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.05.2007 Posts: 455
      against mp3 for sure yes
    • ysessa
      ysessa
      Basic
      Joined: 11.07.2008 Posts: 1,331
      easy I would push any ace in this spot...
    • DaPhunk
      DaPhunk
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      Joined: 01.03.2008 Posts: 2,805
      Originally posted by burek2000
      Nice post. I agree you are right. I however usually want to stay on the safe side and always look for reraise ranges that have 50+% equity, so I do well even if villain would play "perfect" versus me. For instance, if villain put us on such loose range as A9o we shouldn't get any FE at all and then our A9o wouldn't do so well. On the contrary you can't expect such fish to play perfect game and you can push. :f_grin:
      Thanks. I guess He only needs what 36% or 37% equity or something to breakeven with each one of his holdings. Against a range expanded to include A9o (Pokerstove 19% range) He has more than 40% equity with each one of his holdings. So We really Would have no FE. I guess that Would be a *Perfect* Game :f_p:

      Good That SSS players don't get that little credit eh? xD