[NL2-NL10] 10PL drawing hand OOP flop and turn play

    • gumasta
      Joined: 27.07.2008 Posts: 33
      First post!

      FTP PL10 FR, very early in session.

      Only 113 hands on button, running at 30/13. MP3 in just 32 hands seems semi-loose and has never raised preflop to this point.

      Hand converted with online PokerStrategy.com hand converter:

      $0.05/$0.1 Pot-Limit Hold'em (9 handed)

      Known players:

      Preflop: Hero is UTG2 with T, A.
      UTG1 folds, Hero raises to $0.35, 2 folds, MP3 calls $0.35, CO folds, BU calls $0.35, 2 folds.

      Flop: ($1.20) 9, Q, 7 (3 players)
      Hero bets $1.00, MP3 folds, BU raises to $2.2, Hero calls $1.20.

      Turn: ($5.60) J (2 players)
      Hero checks, BU bets $3.40, Hero calls $3.40....

      Because of the mini-raise on the flop, I'm putting button on a very strong hand that isn't folding to any size of semi-bluff on the turn, so I checked.

      I think the possible straights can be excluded from this guy's range because I hold the 10 :diamond: . Unfortunately, the guy only had a pot-sized bet left on the turn and after betting has only $1.93 behind. If he had bet his stack I probably couldn't call.

      Any thoughts on villain's range? Is there an alternative line on the flop?
  • 9 replies
    • maya1984
      Joined: 18.12.2008 Posts: 1,741
      It's a NL section...
    • gumasta
      Joined: 27.07.2008 Posts: 33
      Have to put it here because there's no PL forum. Play it like NL if you like.
    • STR82ACE
      Joined: 01.10.2008 Posts: 389
      Preflop; full ring game, this early, I would be folding preflop honestly. You're in poor position throughout the hand.

      Flop; the contibet is good, and a min raise at this level can mean anything. Still, I would put him on AQ+ and 99+, so you're not winning this one yet. I don't mind the call though

      Turn; check/call is not the line I would take here. you've improved with a gut shot but nothing else. Still you need 40% to keep going here, and his bet isn't giving it you I don't think (I'm still shaky on the math at this point so I hope a judge can outline it better). Either way, I don't like chasing anymore after this so check/fold would be my favoured option here.
    • kingdippy2008
      Joined: 30.08.2008 Posts: 2,107
      He has so many outs, lets do the math?:

      OESD:6 (2 discounted because they are in flushdraw)
      Possible 1 overcard to win: 3

      Its possible to have 18 outs there!!!!!

      Now i say that maybe you have to discount the overcard because of of the chance he holds AQ so you have 15. Anyway, equilator results...

      Equity Win Tie Loss Hand
      Player 1: 65.909 % 65.909 % 0.000 % 34.091 % AsQh
      Player 2: 34.091 % 34.091 % 0.000 % 65.909 % AdTd

      So roughly, 1 in 3 cases we will win.

      With his bet we risk $3.4 to win $9. We need roughly 2:1 and it think we just get it...

      I would play check/call here...

      But my math has been rubbish, correct me if im wrong please and i will change it :P
    • mrjorisa
      Joined: 30.03.2008 Posts: 200
      he has a set
    • kingdippy2008
      Joined: 30.08.2008 Posts: 2,107
      Originally posted by mrjorisa
      he has a set
      ooh didnt think about that, but if he does then its still 15 outs and still a good call imo
    • maya1984
      Joined: 18.12.2008 Posts: 1,741
      Just fold preflop. It's FR. You can be easly dominneted by a better Ace. (or JJ+)
      It also not that easy to play AT OOP.
      As played:

      Make it 4BB if you are raising.

      You can C-bet on that flop with the nut-FD. I rather bet 2/3 of the pot which is 80c.
      I also play here C/C. You getting the right odds And a positive EV.

      Equity Win Tie Loss Hand
      Player 1: 32.273% 32.273% 0.000% 67.727% AdTd
      Player 2: 67.727% 67.727% 0.000% 32.273% 99, 77, AQs, AQo

      Assuming you hit and you will get his remaining 1.93

      EV(call)= 0.32*(10+1.93) - 0.67*(3.4) = 1.5 > 0
    • Mstlc
      Joined: 14.03.2009 Posts: 4,676
      I don't like playing AT here... It's fine to open AT from HJ, CO or BU but it's not a hand you wanna open with UTG+1 imo.
    • veriz
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504

      Preflop: Very loose, I'd prefer to fold here.

      As played
      Flop: Seems to be fine.
      Turn: You can't really Call here, you either push after his bet or just fold.

      Equity Win Tie Loss Hand
      Player 1: 67,727% 67,727% 0,000% 32,273% 99, 77, AQs, AQo
      Player 2: 32,273% 32,273% 0,000% 67,727% AdTd

      EV(Push) = 0,322*5,6 - 0,677*5,33 = -$1,8

      So this is a fold for me. More often I give him here a set and against a set it's even bigger loss.

      Best regards,