disgusted with variance

    • Ishindar
      Ishindar
      Bronze
      Joined: 31.12.2008 Posts: 259
      i moved my bankroll to full tilt from party poker about 10 days ago.
      my ev since i started playing on ft according to holdem manager is -490$ on NL50. I havent lost this amount but tonight in particular i lost 20 out of 26 significant hands. this site seems pretty cruel to me, i just want a fair shot and im not getting it here.
      is it always like this or what?
  • 9 replies
    • excelgeo
      excelgeo
      Silver
      Joined: 17.10.2008 Posts: 1,107
      i dont know, i see quite a lot of suckouts but maybe it is the expected statistical probability of such an occurence. maybe you are experiencing a downswing, how many hands did you have in PP before moving?
    • Ishindar
      Ishindar
      Bronze
      Joined: 31.12.2008 Posts: 259
      its a downswing for sure and i hit it right on starting at FTP. its been 11 days now and im sick off getting KK V AA and AQ v AK type matchups. hitting no flush draws or oesds. being new to the site, its hard to know weither this kind of varience is to be expected. ive no problem with suckouts as long as i get my share :D its not much fun losing continuously when I dont get a chance!
      i played about 30K NL50 hands on PP before moving to FTP and i won consistantly on PP.
    • Smileyphil
      Smileyphil
      Bronze
      Joined: 28.10.2008 Posts: 488
      Well variance can be a real bitch. A 10 buyin downswing is depressing but it happens to everyone.

      It may also be that NL50 is more dificult on Full Tilt than on Party Poker although I haven't played much on Party Poker to say either way.

      I seriously doubt any talk of Full Tilt being rigged. Why would they bother?

      Keep playing through it and if you get really worried take a break and move down a limit or two while you rebuild the confidence. No point tilting off more money if your not in a good frame of mind.
    • Ishindar
      Ishindar
      Bronze
      Joined: 31.12.2008 Posts: 259
      thks for the advise. FT seems tougher than party alright and also oesd and flush draws seem to hit much more frequently on party.

      if i have 4 of a suit with turn and river card to come, it seems im better off folding on FT rather than raising like on party? or is this just my bad luck as im hitting with flush draws almost never?
    • wasy8
      wasy8
      Black
      Joined: 29.01.2009 Posts: 1,507
      A random number generator works the same on every poker site.
    • Ishindar
      Ishindar
      Bronze
      Joined: 31.12.2008 Posts: 259
      last 2 days my ev for all hands played during that time went slightly positive and i managed to win at my normal rate. im back in the green and up 60$ overall.
      im hoping things improve from here and i dont have to face an ev swing of -480$ again for long time :D
    • Ishindar
      Ishindar
      Bronze
      Joined: 31.12.2008 Posts: 259
      [img]C:\Users\Bren\Desktop\no chance.jpg[/img]
    • DeLau
      DeLau
      Bronze
      Joined: 10.01.2009 Posts: 1,606
      I just had a 10BI downswing too. It 's really frustrating. I was so happy when I ended my last session winning 60$.

      About those draws not hitting as often, that 's just some bad luck. I don't believe that would be different on different poker rooms.
    • Ishindar
      Ishindar
      Bronze
      Joined: 31.12.2008 Posts: 259
      well it hasnt stopped for me =) i just finished a session +160$ but my EV
      is persisting around -450$ for 15k hands! which is crippling my profits.

      i wish i could post up the graph here but i dont see how i can....