Upswing or Good play?

    • p0kerQT
      p0kerQT
      Bronze
      Joined: 28.03.2008 Posts: 1,300
      I've been running really good most of the time lately, just thought i'd post my graph n see what you guys think.. Am I a good player or just running incredibly hot? (Or a bit of both :) ) *edit* can post stats if needed

  • 21 replies
    • NightFrostaSS
      NightFrostaSS
      Bronze
      Joined: 25.10.2008 Posts: 5,255
      Too little information.. Post stats and pics of yourself playing so we could judge. ;)
    • p0kerQT
      p0kerQT
      Bronze
      Joined: 28.03.2008 Posts: 1,300
      I think pics are unnecessary :P but here are my stats

    • luitzen
      luitzen
      Bronze
      Joined: 03.04.2009 Posts: 664
      In what unit is the Amount Won column?
    • andyb43
      andyb43
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      Joined: 23.07.2008 Posts: 903
      Is this a piss pull? LOL

      Graph shows MTT's sng's, table shows cash games.........
    • p0kerQT
      p0kerQT
      Bronze
      Joined: 28.03.2008 Posts: 1,300
      Actually the stats show Blind levels not cash games. I wasn't taking the piss :f_rolleyes: actually I wish I was and had won $43k but whatever.
    • NightFrostaSS
      NightFrostaSS
      Bronze
      Joined: 25.10.2008 Posts: 5,255
      Originally posted by p0kerQT
      Actually the stats show Blind levels not cash games. I wasn't taking the piss :f_rolleyes: actually I wish I was and had won $43k but whatever.
      OMG YOU WON 43K :s_rolleyes: jk.
      Meh, i don't think that stats are that much important at sng's actually. :)
    • luitzen
      luitzen
      Bronze
      Joined: 03.04.2009 Posts: 664
      Originally posted by p0kerQT
      Actually the stats show Blind levels not cash games. I wasn't taking the piss :f_rolleyes: actually I wish I was and had won $43k but whatever.
      I already thought the blind levels were strange and observed that you were quickly walking through the blind levels. Still I couldn't get it completely.

      Obviously you shouldn't take the MTT win into account as this could be easily explained by variance. I can't help you further, sorry.
    • p0kerQT
      p0kerQT
      Bronze
      Joined: 28.03.2008 Posts: 1,300
      Thx for ur reply anyways, I believe I'm a good player so thats what matters really.
    • Rauchg
      Rauchg
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.04.2009 Posts: 23
      I think that's exactly the opposite of what matters.
    • sliggy
      sliggy
      Bronze
      Joined: 18.10.2008 Posts: 196
      Given the amount of coinflips you face in a tourney I'd much rather be lucky / run good.
    • rhinoneil
      rhinoneil
      Silver
      Joined: 16.04.2008 Posts: 1,159
      Hi
      The sample size is pretty small, however, a couple of things come to mind.
      At 150/300 and 200/400 level, most of the time its push or fold in sngs, vpip should be same as pfr, it looks like you are too often going to showdown and losing. I would guess you are either shoving to loose or check / calling down too tight, but it really is only a guess.
      You should also have a look at your blind defence and steal attempts, particularly in the mid - higher levels, seems to me you are letting blinds go too easy.
    • LemOn36
      LemOn36
      Coach
      Coach
      Joined: 07.02.2009 Posts: 1,351
      LOL Donkaments. Of course you run hot.....
    • p0kerQT
      p0kerQT
      Bronze
      Joined: 28.03.2008 Posts: 1,300
      Originally posted by rhinoneil
      Hi
      The sample size is pretty small, however, a couple of things come to mind.
      At 150/300 and 200/400 level, most of the time its push or fold in sngs, vpip should be same as pfr, it looks like you are too often going to showdown and losing. I would guess you are either shoving to loose or check / calling down too tight, but it really is only a guess.
      You should also have a look at your blind defence and steal attempts, particularly in the mid - higher levels, seems to me you are letting blinds go too easy.
      Well I lost all my tourney stats from before the beginning of this month coz my PC broke so I guess the sample is too small... 150/300 is from MTT's coz they don't have that level in regular sng's I play. And 200/400 is usually 3 handed or heads up, where I guess I lose some coinflips or when I'm ahead/behind.

      Maybe I don't defend my blinds enough? I usually don't in the medium-late stages so I don't risk losing before ITM, I just played a set now where I came ITM in all 4 but no 1st place, gotta work on that I guess.
    • rhinoneil
      rhinoneil
      Silver
      Joined: 16.04.2008 Posts: 1,159
      Coming itm but not winning is often down to one of 2 things, other than sheer bad luck of course.
      Either you are playing incorrect ICM in which case you can improve this with ICM trainer or as I suspect, you are sneaking into the money with low stack through playiong too passively / tightly in mid stages and therefore not giving yourself a decent chance to win.
      Its too easy for big stacks to pick on you and even to make -EV calls when you are short stacked.
      Personally I prefer to win one and finish out of the money in 2 than finish 3rd / 4th in 3. Whilst its obviously good to get itm you have to give yourself a chance to win and imo aggressive play in middle sectioon is the way forward.
    • p0kerQT
      p0kerQT
      Bronze
      Joined: 28.03.2008 Posts: 1,300
      Heres my more recent stats, I edited out those that are only including MTT's..



      And here is my winnings from the last couple of months from 1 or 2 table sng's..



      Since moving up to the $5s I have been winning more than coming 3rd or 2nd so thats good :)

      Heres my pt3 graph too..

    • rhinoneil
      rhinoneil
      Silver
      Joined: 16.04.2008 Posts: 1,159
      what site you playing on, i will keep out of your way, well done!
    • viewer88
      viewer88
      Bronze
      Joined: 19.04.2008 Posts: 5,545
      textbook upswing by the looks of it
    • Verre
      Verre
      Bronze
      Joined: 24.02.2009 Posts: 708
      Hey QT,

      To be quite honest with you I would say other than the big 180 man win, this seems to be just solid play. If you take out that win you have been making a solid winrate for 216 SnGs in a row.

      The fact that you have had up to 30 SnG downswings during this period points to the fact that you are having success because of your skill and not luck.

      That being said this can turn around very easy from tilt/playing drunk/getting down on yourself for making a few bad decisions. Your blog was probubly the first one I ever read on this site. At first I honestly didn't think you where going to make it and that everyone was just reading because your hot. I have to credit you, all the studying and posting you have done and hard work you have put into your game is quite impressive.

      I think your hard work is finally paying off. Stay away from the three tripping points that you have in the past given into by your own account, and you should be rollin. Congrats on getting a Moderating position.
    • NickParkes
      NickParkes
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.07.2008 Posts: 1,526
      Hey PokerQT

      Just to add my 2 cents... from the individual blindlevel stats you can't tell much unless you go into a much more through analysis... From your other table what strikes me is that your ITM% for STTs are all sitting around 48%... this indicates to me that you are running pretty hot atm... also you are a good player, but never be staisfied with that, you can always get better... I am pretty certain that variance will kick in, but you should be able to maintain around 40% ITM and then your ROI comes down to your 1/2/3 ratios... so if you continue to strengthen your game from HU -> 5+ handed you can maximise your value... I like to work on my game from HU backwards... even though it's a small sample size just to illustrate my point:

      @ $1 ITM 48% ROI 6%
      @ $5 ITM 48% ROI 36%

      Obviously the sample sizes are too small to be conclusive, but the game is all about getting ITM and capitalising on it...

      Anyway, good luck and hope this helps a bit :f_p:
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