[NL2-NL10] AKo overcards vs 2 opp

    • mbml
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,779
      Hand converted with online PokerStrategy.com hand converter:

      $0.05/$0.1 No-Limit Hold'em (8 handed)

      Known players:

      Preflop: Hero is BB with K, A.
      UTG2 folds, MP1 calls $0.10, MP2 folds, MP3 calls $0.10, 3 folds, Hero raises to $0.6, MP1 calls $0.50, MP3 calls $0.50.

      Flop: ($1.85) Q, 5, 3 (3 players)
      Hero bets $1.40(All-In)
      , MP1 folds, MP3 calls $1.40.

      Turn: ($4.65) 4 (2 players)

      River: ($4.65) 8 (2 players)

      Final Pot: $4.65.
      Results follow (highlight to see):
      Hero shows high card ace (Kd Ah)

      MP3 shows two pairs, queens and eights (8c Qc)

      MP3 wins with two pairs, queens and eights (8c Qc).

      MP1: 72.9/18.6/70 (vpip/pfr/hands)
      MP3: 30.8/0/39

      Was the push +EV OOP with 2 opponents?
  • 4 replies
    • Nunki
      Joined: 25.10.2006 Posts: 865
      Versus a couple of opponents who have very wide hand-ranges you have to push here. Your hand will be good a fair proportion of the time. Very +EV versus these two opponents, not even close. NH.
    • burek2000
      Joined: 16.11.2007 Posts: 3,105
      Hello mbml,

      I would prefer to c/f flop.

      With 2 OCs and BDFD you have 7 outs at most, that gives you ~30% equity, but you need 31% if you push flop. So, against any par you are already -EV. And this being 3-way pot it's very likely one of the opponents has hit the flop. So, overall we would need FE to make our push profitable, but I don't expect to have enough FE against 2 opponents.

      Besides, that's NL10 and opponents tend to be passive thus I would check and hope to spike a K or A on any of the later streets.

      With respect to Nunki's different opinion I'm leaving this hand for another judge to have a look.

    • Gerv
      Joined: 07.05.2008 Posts: 17,678
      Since when do you play on Nl10 Mbml?

      I actually see that these guys are calling stations but I like to see their WTSD if you provide statistics since they can be preflop but that does not automatically mean that they are loose postflop and beyond.

      I tend to stick to c/f since 2 calling stations preflop can hit here very often and then you are way behind. On the contrary they can also call with overcards but generally I disagree with Nunki now.

      - Gerv
    • Nunki
      Joined: 25.10.2006 Posts: 865
      Bearing in mind that false assumptions are the mother of many a mistake......

      Assume that villain's hand-ranges are exactly as the stats suggest. Further assume that our flop shove will only get called by one-pair or better,FD or OESD and will be checked down in the case that both opponents call.

      Then EV_shove is just over 4BB's (after 5% rake). BTW, our FE =31%.