[NL20-NL50] 99 BB - fold to shortie lead

  • 10 replies
    • Kaitz20
      Kaitz20
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      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      Fold is fine there if you want to avoid variance.
      I´d likely just 3-bet and get it all-in against SB
    • TheBrood
      TheBrood
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      Joined: 17.07.2008 Posts: 4,383
      Originally posted by Kaitz20

      I´d likely just 3-bet and get it all-in against SB
      What is your reasoning for this decision?
    • sliggy
      sliggy
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      Joined: 18.10.2008 Posts: 196
      Because he's so short and is committing himself pre with a wide range. You can't really play a pot with him because you'll be committed so quickly so you might as well get it in pre, plus in a SB v BB situation he's going to raise very light and then be committed with marginal holdings a lot.
    • Jaissica
      Jaissica
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      Joined: 10.02.2009 Posts: 1,385
      Id want a read on SB being SSS+stealing before playing back at him with 99. We dont have that read yet.
    • Kaitz20
      Kaitz20
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      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      Originally posted by sliggy
      Because he's so short and is committing himself pre with a wide range. You can't really play a pot with him because you'll be committed so quickly so you might as well get it in pre, plus in a SB v BB situation he's going to raise very light and then be committed with marginal holdings a lot.
      +1
    • Kaitz20
      Kaitz20
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      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      Originally posted by Jaissica
      Id want a read on SB being SSS+stealing before playing back at him with 99. We dont have that read yet.
      With 10/10 stats it should be enough read that he isn´t raising there only with TT+/AK
    • Jaissica
      Jaissica
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      Joined: 10.02.2009 Posts: 1,385
      30 hands read for SSS... he could be 0/0 or 20/20 and still be playing ABC from the SHC, depending on how hot / cold his cards have been today :)
    • sliggy
      sliggy
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      Joined: 18.10.2008 Posts: 196
      He could also be only raising aces or kings and folding everything else. That's "possible" as well, but completely unrealistic. About 9/10 times if someone is 10/10 over 30 hands their range will be wider than TT+/AK.
    • Jaissica
      Jaissica
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      Joined: 10.02.2009 Posts: 1,385
      QQ+AKo+ is 2.5%. The probability he could only be raising QQ+AKo+ is actually not impossible - about 4.2% if my high school math still holds up, and that would be crazy-nit-SSS. Standard SSS (~7% PFR) is a relatively massive ~19% chance to have had 3 playables in 30 hands, again, pending my barely-remembered conditional probability being accurate.

      30 hands is way too few to hand a stack over with 99 IMO. Maybe if "SSS" was at 20/20 over 30 or had shown down hands outside reasonable SSS ranges you might run with it, but this is getting into risky misread territory.

      All we lose by folding is a possibly profitable situation, though how often 99 will even be clearly in front of any hand even stealy-SSS SB will raise-shove is questionable anyway. Why not wait until we know for sure SB is loose before donating a stack here?
    • sliggy
      sliggy
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      Joined: 18.10.2008 Posts: 196
      Well as the judge said, folding is fine. Personally I would 3bet it preflop and get it in, but it's certainly high variance. I don't think it's -EV, but only barely +EV. The amount of times we're flipping is monstrous and a pocket pair has a very slight equity advantage over two overcards.

      The beautiful thing about 99 is that short stackers are capable of stacking off with just one overcard, i.e. A8 and sometimes if the odds are right even smaller pairs when they put us on a couple of overcards. It's a bit of a grey area, moreso personal preference, but I'd get it in pre against a shortstack.

      Basically, the only bad option is just calling pre, for the reasons I stated. So well played OP, but 3betting and getting it in is also a viable option.