Whats the difference?

    • StusMagic
      StusMagic
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      Joined: 05.01.2009 Posts: 187
      Whats the difference between poker and roulette?Srsly if you use good brm you can win at both by using maths and all that staff,I moved down 4 limits already and going broke soon if continues that shit.Well one thing is for sure when i hit 100$ mark im going to roulette
  • 30 replies
    • Berkstajger
      Berkstajger
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      Joined: 19.03.2009 Posts: 878
      Roulette is pure luck, where in poker you can do a lot with knowledge, or in other words - lack of knowledge of other players.

      In the long run, casino takes about 3% (depends it there is one or two zeros), and you about the same loss if you always play the same game. Since you cannot in anyway predict what the next number will be, it's just luck. People lose most money when they tilt and think they know what to bet. Play roulette for fun, never for money. You can win a lot of money quickly, but in a long run you'll probably lose a lot more if you'll try to get more out.

      I worked as a croupier and have seen quite few devastated players losing their money and mind in those nights. Also have friends who use to gamble a lot on roulette... swinging from 3.000 EUR win to 5.000 EUR loss in one night and I can tell you, the other one is not nice if you cannot afford it.
    • Berzerger
      Berzerger
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      Joined: 24.03.2008 Posts: 910
      If you write such things you're probably feeling awful, but if you no longer believe in +EV play it's best to quit poker for a few days, maybe a week. You didn't mention what limit/strategy you play and what amount you're down from...

      Originally posted by StusMagic
      Whats the difference between poker and roulette?
      In poker, it's possible to make a +EV move.

      Originally posted by StusMagic
      Srsly if you use good brm you can win at both by using maths and all that staff
      Winning at roulette? Please describe your system so I can prove it unprofitable.
    • StusMagic
      StusMagic
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      Joined: 05.01.2009 Posts: 187
      What i do is i spin without making bets and wait for one color to come 3 times for one color to come in a row like 3 reds and then i bet on black and if red comes again i double bet on black and keep going untill i win and i never hit more then 15 reds in a row or so.If you got 37 spots where ball can land 0 zero and 18 red and 18 black which makes 48,64% that ball will land on red or black so what are the odds that one same color will come like 15 times in a row or more?
    • Berkstajger
      Berkstajger
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      Joined: 19.03.2009 Posts: 878
      This is one of the oldest 'tricks' new players find out first on roulette... :)

      Progressive betting won't get you far. I don't know how it's in virtual casinos but in rl all have max bet and progressive betting always stops on certain point.

      And even with your way of betting you'll end up with 1 unit of bet after you hit your color after a streak of wrong colors.

      For instance:

      YOUR BET / YOUR WIN
      1 / -
      2 / -
      4 / -
      8 / -
      16 / -
      32 / 32

      After five bad colors you hit your color and feel really proud of yourself how you cheated the casino. But let's take a closer look: you invested 31$ and won 32$, so you won an incredible amount of 1$. And that 1$ will be your final win even if you continue betting to 1.000.000$ :) So not even in the long run this system doesn't pay off. Sooner or later you'll reach the casino or your BR limit, hit the wrong number and end everything.

      And yes, same color can come like 15 times. Happened to me while I was working in casino. On a similar occasion I hit same number(!) five times in a row, getting quite not very friendly responds from players on the table. :P

      In the bottom line - don't play the roulette in any way than just for fun. Especially not to improve your BR when you're probably already tiltin.
    • Berzerger
      Berzerger
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      Joined: 24.03.2008 Posts: 910
      Originally posted by StusMagic
      What i do is i spin without making bets and wait for one color to come 3 times for one color to come in a row like 3 reds and then i bet on black and if red comes again i double bet on black and keep going untill i win and i never hit more then 15 reds in a row or so.If you got 37 spots where ball can land 0 zero and 18 red and 18 black which makes 48,64% that ball will land on red or black so what are the odds that one same color will come like 15 times in a row or more?
      About 33k:1 for 15 times, so if you start by betting $1 on black you'd need $33,000 to continue doubling up to have little less than a 50/50 chance to survive a 15 bet downswing. The fact alone that you rely on previous numbers to predict the next outcome (e.g. waiting for same color 3x in a row before you start) shows that you don't understand the math behind roulette. Every move you make is -EV because every time you bet money your chances of winning are less than 50%. With an infinitely large BR it is theoretically possible to break even, but since that's never the case you'll inevitably go broke. You won't believe your eyes when black comes 26 times in a row and demolishes your roll.
    • StusMagic
      StusMagic
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      Joined: 05.01.2009 Posts: 187
      ok but i dont really think that after like 15 times it hit black in a row and its still next spin 48% that black will come again
    • Berzerger
      Berzerger
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      Joined: 24.03.2008 Posts: 910
      Originally posted by StusMagic
      ok but i dont really think that after like 15 times it hit black in a row and its still next spin 48% that black will come again
      That's why I said you don't understand the math behind roulette. Previous outcomes have absolutely no effect on the next one.
    • Berkstajger
      Berkstajger
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      Joined: 19.03.2009 Posts: 878
      Stus, please read my post above - after endless betting, you'll have 1$ profit when you win. So being that theoretically (and you'll have to do that sooner or later) you'll bet your entire BR to win 1$ you can quickly see that that isn't compliant with any rational pot-odd strategy your trying to invent. :)
    • dnalloh
      dnalloh
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      Joined: 20.02.2009 Posts: 53
      absolutely no offense meant in any way, shape or form - but i find it very interesting that this post is from a platinum level user. my guess is u didnt get to that level by being a complete donk - which means u must understand tilt and hopefully through the emotional haze somewhere down deep be able to realize that u r probably on one. take a break b4 u even get down to 100. take it now! and dont play again till u think "wow, poker would be fun right now!".

      just my 2 pennies. hope it works out for you.

      (i know nothing about roulette or other casino games, but know that they are all always tilted in houses favor - except for counting cards in black jack)
    • StusMagic
      StusMagic
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      Joined: 05.01.2009 Posts: 187
      Originally posted by Berzerger
      Originally posted by StusMagic
      ok but i dont really think that after like 15 times it hit black in a row and its still next spin 48% that black will come again
      That's why I said you don't understand the math behind roulette. Previous outcomes have absolutely no effect on the next one.
      But then it must go same with poker that prevoius outcames have no effect with next one so if you hit your downswing you must get lucky to have end of your downswing coz if lets say your AA gets cracked by 72o 20 times in a row all in preflop you cant expect that now your gonna win next 80 like you should if you watch percentages but you dont know what to expect coz you can lose next 1000 times or infinite times.Or also you can expect to have upswing all your life.

      I suck at maths teach me how this shits work :D
    • Berkstajger
      Berkstajger
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      Joined: 19.03.2009 Posts: 878
      Damn, man, you really need some math instructions. Things you're asking about are the basics of statistics.

      If you flip a coin, there's 50% of heads and 50% of tails. The more times you flip the coin, the closer the ratio will be to 50:50.

      The ration when playing AA vs 72o will approach the 80:20 ratio. Or maybe if you're of incredible pesimistic the ratio will be 80.000:20.000 and by the end of the life you'll only play out those 19.999 chances and always lose. It's possible sure. But the chance of getting that amount of followed events and I think you should leave that for your next lesson, because you clearly don't understand the sole basics of statictics. And I don't mean to be rude, I'm just giving you a good advice.
    • NightFrostaSS
      NightFrostaSS
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      Joined: 25.10.2008 Posts: 5,255
      I think you should read this
    • Berkstajger
      Berkstajger
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      Joined: 19.03.2009 Posts: 878
      A joke told among mathematicians demonstrates the nature of the fallacy. When flying on an aircraft, a man decides always to bring a bomb with him. "The chances of an aircraft having a bomb on it are very small," he reasons, "and certainly the chances of having two are almost none!"


      Good one. :D
    • StusMagic
      StusMagic
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      Joined: 05.01.2009 Posts: 187
      Originally posted by Berkstajger
      Damn, man, you really need some math instructions. Things you're asking about are the basics of statistics.

      If you flip a coin, there's 50% of heads and 50% of tails. The more times you flip the coin, the closer the ratio will be to 50:50.

      The ration when playing AA vs 72o will approach the 80:20 ratio. Or maybe if you're of incredible pesimistic the ratio will be 80.000:20.000 and by the end of the life you'll only play out those 19.999 chances and always lose. It's possible sure. But the chance of getting that amount of followed events and I think you should leave that for your next lesson, because you clearly don't understand the sole basics of statictics. And I don't mean to be rude, I'm just giving you a good advice.
      I have no idea about statistics thats right but berzerker told me that prevoius outcomes have no effect on next ones so if i live 200 years and lose those 20k times can i expect now to win other 80k to win if prevoius outcomes have no effect on next ones or i can get next 20k losses ? :D
    • StusMagic
      StusMagic
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      Joined: 05.01.2009 Posts: 187
      Originally posted by NightFrostaSS
      I think you should read this
      ill read it thx
    • Berzerger
      Berzerger
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      Joined: 24.03.2008 Posts: 910
      Originally posted by StusMagic
      But then it must go same with poker that prevoius outcames have no effect with next one so if you hit your downswing you must get lucky to have end of your downswing coz if lets say your AA gets cracked by 72o 20 times in a row all in preflop you cant expect that now your gonna win next 80 like you should if you watch percentages but you dont know what to expect coz you can lose next 1000 times or infinite times.Or also you can expect to have upswing all your life.

      I suck at maths teach me how this shits work :D
      The odds of losing AA vs. 72o 20 times in a row is 0.118^20 = app. 2.379*10^-19 = 0.0000000000000000002379%, considerably lower than roulette, which is why poker can be +EV on long term. A downswing is not pre-destined or anything, it's just an observation you make in retrospective. After you've played a certain amount of hands, you'll sometimes notice clusters of unfortunate losses and call them downswings. But if you find yourself in such a series of unfortunate losses, you might think that your "bad streak" will "continue" and that your AA somehow have less than 88.2% equity against 72o. But that isn't true: the odds are always the same, you've just been improbably unlucky this far, it doesn't mean you have any less or more chance to win the next hand. That is assuming you don't tilt or make mistakes in your game. Bottom line is: +EV play will always remain +EV regardless of previous results.
    • Berkstajger
      Berkstajger
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      Joined: 19.03.2009 Posts: 878
      Originally posted by StusMagic
      Originally posted by Berkstajger
      Damn, man, you really need some math instructions. Things you're asking about are the basics of statistics.

      If you flip a coin, there's 50% of heads and 50% of tails. The more times you flip the coin, the closer the ratio will be to 50:50.

      The ration when playing AA vs 72o will approach the 80:20 ratio. Or maybe if you're of incredible pesimistic the ratio will be 80.000:20.000 and by the end of the life you'll only play out those 19.999 chances and always lose. It's possible sure. But the chance of getting that amount of followed events and I think you should leave that for your next lesson, because you clearly don't understand the sole basics of statictics. And I don't mean to be rude, I'm just giving you a good advice.
      I have no idea about statistics thats right but berzerker told me that prevoius outcomes have no effect on next ones so if i live 200 years and lose those 20k times can i expect now to win other 80k to win if prevoius outcomes have no effect on next ones or i can get next 20k losses ? :D
      With a certain certainty you can expect certain events. There's a chance you'll never again win AA vs. 72o, but that chance is so little (as Berzerger mathematically illustrated in a post above) that is not worth getting annoyed over it.
    • lennonac
      lennonac
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      Joined: 02.05.2009 Posts: 1,421
      This is the most mental post!!!!!!!!
      From a experienced poker player, no offence but give up poker for a while and read some books on poker probability
    • StusMagic
      StusMagic
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      Joined: 05.01.2009 Posts: 187
      Originally posted by lennonac
      This is the most mental post!!!!!!!!
      From a experienced poker player, no offence but give up poker for a while and read some books on poker probability
      maybe but tell me where i was wrong with poker probability?roulette prolly but poker probability quote me :D
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