[NL20-NL50] PL50 - OESFD - How many outs ?!!!

    • jotap27
      Joined: 29.03.2007 Posts: 107
      Known players:

      0,25/0,5 Pot-Limit Hold'em (5 handed)
      Hand recorder used for this poker hand: PokerStrategy Elephant 0.67 by www.pokerstrategy.com.

      Preflop: Hero is BB with 5:diamond: , 4:diamond:
      3 folds, SB calls $0,25, Hero checks.

      Flop: ($1,00) 4:heart: , 2:spade: , 7:diamond: (2 players)
      SB bets $1,00, Hero raises to $2,00, SB calls $1,00.

      Turn: ($5,00) 6:diamond: (2 players)
      SB checks, Hero bets $2,50, SB raises to $12,50, Hero raises to $42,50, SB calls $13,05 (All-In), Hero gets uncalled bet back.

      River: ($56,10) J:heart: (1 players)

      Final Pot: $56,10

      If i didn't make the wrong account, i had 26 outs !!!
  • 5 replies
    • Verre
      Joined: 24.02.2009 Posts: 708
      I count 20, but I may be wrong. Lets count.

      A :diamond: K :diamond: Q :diamond: J :diamond: T :diamond: 9 :diamond: 8 :diamond: 3 :diamond: 2 :diamond:

      8 :spade: 8 :heart: 8 :club: 3 :spade: 3 :heart: 3 :club:

      5 :spade: 5 :heart: 5 :club:

      4 :spade: 4 :club:

      That being said on the river you had a 43.47% chance to catch a made hand.

      15.2% chance to hit a low flush
      4.2% chance to hit unhidden trips
      6.5% chance to hit a mid two pair
      6.5% chance to hit low straight
      10.87% chance to hit NUT straight flush or NUT straight.

      I think that this would have been an easy rereraise all in on a flop with these same number of outs. Making this play on the turn gives you a less than 50% chance to hit your cards, where as if you had these same outs on the flop you have (rough estimate) 67% chance to hit your card between the two cards to come.

      I'm not sure about the reraise you made on the flop, his $1 dollar bet into a $1 dollar pot after limping what could be anything screams steal/top pair/two pair.

      I dont mind your raise on the turn after the check because of your reraise on the flop, but when you got reraised and you have 20 outs you need to either fold or just call, you cant push with a speculative hand against a guy who has commited half his stack already.

      Remember that with him showing a hand with value he may have a 4 and has you outkicked, meaning 2 of your outs are counterfitted. He may have 2 better diamonds which counterfits another 6 of your outs. If he did 2 pair the flop that means another 3 of your outs are gone.

      This is a tough hand. It sucks missing 20 outs.
    • Jaissica
      Joined: 10.02.2009 Posts: 1,385
      OESD + FD (or OESFD) has equity to shove flop vs any made hand up to 2 pair.

      However many people overplay this hand on the turn. A blank turn not-quite-halves your equity and turns your hand from a raise in front hand into a call with outs hand. Where raise-shove would be correct on the flop with the OESD+FD, it is a leaking overplay move on the turn, and thats before we even start discounting outs.

      Probably best to check behind the turn and see if your monster hits. Your turn bet is otherwise a bluff-with-outs and SB has already shown some strength by playing bet-call on the flop.

      With so many outs it would be very very hard to fold as played on the turn, but definantly just calling was the right line here. With such a large pot and such an aggressive bet if you hit a strong made hand on the river its almost certain SB would stack off, and its also certain you had no fold equity with your shove on the turn, so call-evaluate was the line to play after bluff-betting the turn.
    • jotap27
      Joined: 29.03.2007 Posts: 107
      Hi Guys,

      You are correct verre. I made the wrong account.

      Jaissica, note that i only have OESFD on the turn. On the flop a have only 2nd pair and the Flush and Str8 backdoors...

    • Dragar
      Joined: 09.09.2008 Posts: 2,214
      Hi yeah I would not go all-in on the turn.

      I'd prefer a check behind.

      Yes you have 20 outs, but your still behind and getting your money in behind on the turn, hence -EV play.

      You have 0 FE by pushing since villain c/r you.
    • Kaitz20
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      I´d just call on the turn
      If you hit your draw, you can shove for value.
      If you shove here, then SB is likely are ahead and you don´t have enough fold equity.