Hand of the Day - Part VII

    • Stefan1000
      Stefan1000
      Bronze
      Joined: 24.01.2006 Posts: 1,649
      Party Poker 1/2 Hold'em (6 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

      Preflop: Hero is UTG with T:heart: , K:diamond: . CO posts a blind of $1.
      [color:#CC3333]Hero raises[/color], [color:#666666]1 fold[/color], CO (poster) calls, [color:#666666]3 folds[/color].

      Flop: (5.50 SB) Q:diamond: , 7:heart: , 9:club: [color:#0000FF](2 players)[/color]
      [color:#CC3333]Hero bets[/color], CO calls.

      Turn: (3.75 BB) 5:spade: [color:#0000FF](2 players)[/color]
      [color:#CC3333]Hero bets[/color], [color:#CC3333]CO raises[/color], Hero calls.

      River: (7.75 BB) 6:club: [color:#0000FF](2 players)[/color]
      Hero checks, CO checks.

      Final Pot: 7.75 BB
  • 4 replies
    • jpbothawyn777
      jpbothawyn777
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.06.2006 Posts: 67
      Im not at this level or short handed but isn't it an easy fold on the turn?
    • Stefan1000
      Stefan1000
      Bronze
      Joined: 24.01.2006 Posts: 1,649
      Why do you think it is?
    • jpbothawyn777
      jpbothawyn777
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.06.2006 Posts: 67
      Hero have 7 out a gutshot and a over card, so the donk/semi bluff is right, and even the bet on the turn. The call by the player on the river would let me think that he might have something, the raise on the turn and i think he almost always have something.
      If i think that he is bluffing, maybe reraise the turn but i think the turn call ofter the reraise is wrong.

      But i think i would have folded the turn after the reraise (i have no clue what range of hands he has)
    • Stefan1000
      Stefan1000
      Bronze
      Joined: 24.01.2006 Posts: 1,649
      Ok here we go:

      Actually according to the ORC this is a fold but because of the poster we have some dead money in the pot so with a little bit of tolerance we can say it is ok.
      So lets go to the interesting part postflop.

      On the flop we hit a gutshot plus one overcard with the king. Of course we make our continuation bet on the flop like always. Villain calls the flop and of course we bet the turn again because with our king high we don't have a lot of showdown value and we would prefer to win the pot on the turn with another bet but but villain reacts with a raise on the turn. Now the interesting part of the hand begins.

      The first question is if we have enough outs to call with a pot size of 6.75BB?

      if we give ourselve 6 outs we need pot odds of 1:7. On avarage we have 1BB implied odds.. When we are going for the check raise on the river he will sometimes check behind and sometimes he will still bet the river so that we can go for the check raise.

      All in all we add 1BB implied odds but lets be a bit optimistic and we will round up our pot odds to 1:8 (so i added 0.25) So with 1:8 this would actually be a call but we also have to calculate our reverse implied odds. Actually we can only be happy if we hit our Jack Every other out could make a straight for our oppnent or propably 2 pair. So when we really have 6 outs and we will call the river we will almost loose the same amound that we added as implied odds (1bb) when we loose the hand. So we would have odds of 1:7 and for a cal we actually only need 1:6,38 so it is a close decision but it could be a call. To make a decision we should take a closer look on our opponents behavior.

      So lets say we have a read on villain and we take a closer look on 3 different factors.

      a) How often will he semi bluff the turn?

      b) how strong could be his made hand? is he only raising marginal hands or only strong hands?

      c) How often will our opponent do a bluff bet on the river after a semi bluff on the turn?

      So as you can propably see interesting for us is how often will he raise with draws on the turn (a) and how often will he still bet the river after that. If he does that frequently we almost have an easy call.

      But of course we should also consider factor b) because we are more often unimproved on the river then improved.

      Of course if we know from our opponent that he will raise more often with made hands, we should consider to give up the hand.

      Actually we should mainly think about factor a) and b) because they will influence our decision the most.

      It is very hard to give an exact solution for this hand and actually this is not the point i just wanted to give you a short example what you should consider when you think about calling such a hand or folding it.