Folding AK Preflop

    • Computerized
      Computerized
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      Joined: 08.05.2009 Posts: 43
      If someone raises preflop, I'm beginning to think I should just muck AK. I've lost every time to a preflop raiser who has a pocket pair. I mean, if you think about it, there are only 8 outs (not counting flush/straight draws), plus someone could have folded a King or Ace preflop, lowering the probability again of hitting one.

      Your thoughts?
  • 15 replies
    • michaelqian
      michaelqian
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      Joined: 02.05.2009 Posts: 512
      The chance of someone having a King or Ace (and folding) is the same as someone not having one, so your probability theory here is incorrect. Chances are higher that others don't have a King or Ace, especially if there are not that many players.

      Normally what people do with AK in response to a bet or raise is to re-raise is to re-raise the pot.

      Personally I would feel more comfortable with KK, AA or AKs.
    • MrMardyBum
      MrMardyBum
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      Joined: 14.03.2009 Posts: 2,206
      Originally posted by Computerized
      If someone raises preflop, I'm beginning to think I should just muck AK. I've lost every time to a preflop raiser who has a pocket pair. I mean, if you think about it, there are only 8 outs (not counting flush/straight draws), plus someone could have folded a King or Ace preflop, lowering the probability again of hitting one.

      Your thoughts?

      Lol..... Really? Think about what you are saying.... Then check the hand rankings again, and see where AK sits. If this is your thinking I sincerely hope you are still playing micro limits.

      Either that or you can come and play at my table anytime you like :)
    • straddler71
      straddler71
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      Joined: 03.07.2008 Posts: 516
      Originally posted by Computerized
      If someone raises preflop, I'm beginning to think I should just muck AK. I've lost every time to a preflop raiser who has a pocket pair. I mean, if you think about it, there are only 8 outs (not counting flush/straight draws), plus someone could have folded a King or Ace preflop, lowering the probability again of hitting one.

      Your thoughts?
      Actually you have 6 outs, only 3 aces and 3 kings left. Once you have gathered a large sample size database you will see that ak will be one of the hands that earns you the most money.

      But yes ak can get a player into trouble. You know the old saying ak usually wins a small pot or loses a big one.

      Good luck with the grind.
    • MrMardyBum
      MrMardyBum
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      Joined: 14.03.2009 Posts: 2,206
      Maybe this will help you decision....

      Cue the Holecard profit table.....




      Make sense now?
    • michaelqian
      michaelqian
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      Joined: 02.05.2009 Posts: 512
      I would fold AK in probably 2 situations.

      1. Someone who plays very tight makes a good sized bet, so suggesting they have something even better than AK, maybe KK, AA or QQ.

      2. Some loose maniac goes all in and I'm not feeling lucky.

      If you are folding AK, what would you NOT fold? Would you fold QJ, KQ, KJ, AJ, AQ?

      Remember that an A or K will help you in all situations. Even flush draws.

      Example being, you have a A of spades, flop comes all spades, then turn comes spade as well, then you can pretty much guarantee the pot. Someone who have two hole cards of spades will NOT win here, they'll think they've won, which is exactly how you can extract a large amount of money from them.
    • Schnitzelfisch
      Schnitzelfisch
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      Joined: 08.11.2008 Posts: 4,952
      1. you have 6 outs to hit, not 8 outs.

      2. folding AK preflop is -EV in almost all cases (unless you raise and someone has 3-bet% of like 1 in a few thousand hands sample)

      3. Some loose maniac goes all in and I'm not feeling lucky. - that's just bullshit, so -EV. You usually have his hand dominated as maniacs like to push Ax.

      As for hitting 1-card flush, that's just rare as hell, maybe it happens in 0.1% of times. AK suited however gives you 3% more equity preflop which makes playing vs PP almost a coinflip, you still have 3 outs AK vs KK (+ outs for flopping a straight), the only hand that you really rarely win against is AA.

      Why on earth do people fold premium hands like that? it's the same as folding AA cause you don't feel lucky or folding KK cause you "know villain has AA".
    • dextart
      dextart
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      Joined: 03.10.2008 Posts: 22
      Originally posted by MrMardyBum
      Maybe this will help you decision....

      Cue the Holecard profit table.....




      Make sense now?

      It's strange how I was about to start a thread about whether pushing AK might be -EV preflop on medium limits that this came out...

      In response to the picture above, my observations through 85k hands on different limits are similar, with AK being aprox +1.7bb/100 hands. However, taking NL100 alone (20K sample), only AKo is positive at 1.2bb, whereas AKs is -0.2bb, at least proving that this hand has well above average variance.

      I noticed that you take the hands as played both pre- and post- flop. For me at least, especially interesting part was how does it perform purely PF, that way filtering out the effect of potential postflop leaks. To my surprise (well, not really, seing how I was being hammered on every coinflip), on NL100, my AKs stands at -3.4bb, whereas AKo has -1bb. Sample sizes for PF pushes were 28 and 58 respectively, so I'm not sure what to make of it. Is the sample just too small (it still proves that AK variance is just GROSS), or might it actually be that SSS SHC for NL100 upwards should be adjusted against going broke with AK? With comparable sample size, it used to be hugely profitable on lower limits...

      Would be grateful for your insights as well. Thanks!
    • FWKanobi
      FWKanobi
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      Joined: 13.02.2009 Posts: 740
      I would fold AK preflop in 2 situations :

      1. I'm in a tournament where couple of places are getting reward (like Satellite or Double or nothing ) and there are already 2 ALL INs .

      2. When I'm with big stack (cash or tourny) and there are 3 ALL INs infront of me from tight players.
    • andyb43
      andyb43
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      Joined: 23.07.2008 Posts: 903
      Originally posted by FWKanobi
      I would fold AK preflop in 2 situations :

      1. I'm in a tournament where couple of places are getting reward (like Satellite or Double or nothing ) and there are already 2 ALL INs .

      2. When I'm with big stack (cash or tourny) and there are 3 ALL INs infront of me from tight players.
      (x) Nailed it...........
    • FWKanobi
      FWKanobi
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      Joined: 13.02.2009 Posts: 740
      Originally posted by andyb43
      Originally posted by FWKanobi
      I would fold AK preflop in 2 situations :

      1. I'm in a tournament where couple of places are getting reward (like Satellite or Double or nothing ) and there are already 2 ALL INs .

      2. When I'm with big stack (cash or tourny) and there are 3 ALL INs infront of me from tight players.
      (x) Nailed it...........
      Still learning mate :-)
    • Schnitzelfisch
      Schnitzelfisch
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      Joined: 08.11.2008 Posts: 4,952
      Originally posted by FWKanobi
      I would fold AK preflop in 2 situations :

      1. I'm in a tournament where couple of places are getting reward (like Satellite or Double or nothing ) and there are already 2 ALL INs .

      2. When I'm with big stack (cash or tourny) and there are 3 ALL INs infront of me from tight players.
      That's true. Folding AK preflop can certainly be +$EV in some special occasions in tournaments as you described :) .

      I was talking about cash games though :) .
    • Mrtwisties
      Mrtwisties
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      Joined: 03.05.2009 Posts: 4
      Same here, I would not fold AK preflop in Free rolls, but I won't play same hand in Cash games after preflop re-raise. I don't know may be I am saying this because I have played with so many donks and lost with these hands after preflop all ins. :p
    • Hackett77
      Hackett77
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      Joined: 02.02.2009 Posts: 372
      You shouldnt really be going all in preflop with AK in a cash game.

      tournaments maybe, depending on the situtiation.

      But in a cash game that is just a pure gamble and the idea of a cash game is to get your money in when you have an advantage.

      Raise PF flop then cbet to taste to knock the PPs out, if your RR on the flop you have a serious dilema but usualy I would fold here as your up against a set/2pair. but obviously think about oppenants. I will often call weak tags in postions with anyplayable hand and RR the flop if no high cards comes no matter if the flop helps me or not, usually this wins me a nice pot.

      Personally, I would RR any PFR before me and fold to a 4bet most of the time. sometimes I would call the 4bet and see what the flop brings but you need to know your opponents.

      Playing like this you can often get 10-QQ to fold on the flop with no high cards as pre flop youve already scared them into thinking you have AA/KK
    • michaelqian
      michaelqian
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      Joined: 02.05.2009 Posts: 512
      For short stack strategy, you might as well go all in with AK, of course better with AA, or even KK, knowing that you already have a pair.
    • bordzter
      bordzter
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      Joined: 03.08.2008 Posts: 143
      i would only fold pre-flop when i know that the player is tight... otherwise its RR then see the flop