[NL2-NL10] NL200 donkbet, shove/muck/flat?

    • Gerv
      Joined: 07.05.2008 Posts: 17,678
      No-Limit Hold'em, $2.00 BB (9 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

      saw flop

      MP1 ($91.95)
      MP2 ($253.45)
      Hero (MP3) ($41.75)
      CO ($50.70)
      Button ($120.75)
      SB ($201)
      BB ($68)

      UTG ($184.25)
      UTG+1 ($224.10)

      Preflop: Hero is MP3 with A, K
      2 folds, MP1 calls $2, 1 fold, Hero bets $9, 3 folds, BB calls $7, 1 fold

      Flop: ($21) 3, Q, J (2 players)
      BB bets $4, Hero ?

      Donkbet can be KQ/KJ/AQ/Set/2Pair/FD/OESD

      Safest thing is to muck but betting 2bb into a 10.5bb pot and then mucking is too weak... Shove or Call & evaluate?
  • 8 replies
    • luitzen
      Joined: 03.04.2009 Posts: 664
      If villain pins you down at A K it would be profitable for him to call with any hand containing a Q, J, 3 or flush draw.
    • Ishindar
      Joined: 31.12.2008 Posts: 259
      he looks very lose and a little fishy, i would never fold to a min donk bet looking at his stats and considering your outs. i would either call or raise depending on how he played previous hands as he donks 25% of the time.
    • Nunki
      Joined: 25.10.2006 Posts: 865
      If his small_donkbet_range is as tight as you think it is then shoving the flop is pretty neutral EV-wise. Folding to reduce variance seems fine.

      Calling could lead to a lot of difficult turns and is obviously terrible if villain is likely to fire a reasonable 4th street bet (eg. if his range is strong).

      Looking at villain's AFq/WSD/W$SD/WWSF(?) he seems to be betting the 2nd best hand fairly often (perhaps bluffy/running bad) so on the basis of these stats (+call open) I'd just shove. It also feels good to raise a donk-bet.
    • burek2000
      Joined: 16.11.2007 Posts: 3,105
      If villain really donks only the hands you put him on, then it's an easy muck imo, but I would say his donking range is much wider, at least for some bluffing frequency and thus I would push against this 33/5 guy.

      88 hands isn't enough for any of postflop stats, so I would take them with caution...
    • DaPhunk
      Joined: 01.03.2008 Posts: 2,805
      Wow, thats an unbelievably tight mindonk range you just put him on. Is that range based on Reads?
    • MancaMulas
      Joined: 12.03.2009 Posts: 4,491
      this is not "Short Stack Strategy | as of Bronze"! this SSS may be silver or gold or something...
    • Padde
      Joined: 25.05.2006 Posts: 1,060
      if you see foldequity, you should push directly.
      if there is no foldequity, its better to just call the donkbet i think.

      no way i fold this hand here in my opinion.
      i would push
    • ysessa
      Joined: 11.07.2008 Posts: 1,331
      push directly gutshot 2 overs backdoor fdraw some fe.