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Expected value (EV)

    • tonnek
      Joined: 16.02.2009 Posts: 413

      can someone explain me, how EV is calculated and how can EV be shown as a graph, as the trackerprograms do it.

      I am willing to understand it, it has something to do with you position and the cards you are holding, but then what?

      I guess when you are playing positive EV then you should be playing good, right?
  • 2 replies
    • cyzo
      Joined: 19.07.2008 Posts: 117
      The tracker programs calculate expected value only for situations in which you are all-in. Your winnings are counted in other hands.

      For example, folding in the big blind decreases your EV by 1BB.
      For example, stealing a 5BB pot increases your EV by 5BB/#ofplayers - rake.
      For example, going all-in preplop with AA vs XX, with each player contributing 100BB after rake gives you +85BB EV regardless of the actual outcome of the hand.

      Therefore, if you lost 4 60-40 all-in coinflips in a row, your EV would be higher than your winnings, indicating a downswing caused by bad luck. If you lose money without having higher expected value, it was probably poor play rather than variance.

      This, at least, is my understanding of how HEM (and I presume PT3) calculate expected value in graphs and session statistics.
    • Jaissica
      Joined: 10.02.2009 Posts: 1,385
      Lets say you get all in with AA vs KK preflop.

      Regardless of the result, HEM / PT3 will record an increase in all-in EV equal to about 80% of the pot (since you had about an 80% chance to win when all the money went in).

      In this way you can compare all-in EV against actual winnings and get a rough idea of the cause of your good / bad runs.

      It is actually as useful for analysis of good days as bad. A day with a 400BB profit with an expected EV of -200BB is a day I guess we dont mind, but dont ever really want, because it says we played pretty poorly and lucked out like that fish that puts you on tilt then leaves the table.