variance or bad play?

    • Schris7
      Schris7
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.01.2007 Posts: 730
      hi there . i am currently playing the 6.5$ (6/9/18/27 ppl)sngs at ft and like the last month and so i am breakeven .i was grinding like from 100$ to 1000$ (started at micro sngs )with a roi of like 10-12% but the last 1.5 month i am like struggling between 1000-1200 $ breakeven and from my part i think big bad luck . i ll post my hands from today and yesterday session but they are similar to what i play through this whole 1.5 month.could that be variance (and how long it will last ) or its just my bad play?

      Full Tilt Poker $6 + $0.50 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t120/t240 Blinds - 5 players - View hand 121605
      The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

      BTN: t3045 M = 8.46
      SB: t3240 M = 9
      Hero (BB): t3595 M = 9.99
      UTG: t920 M = 2.56
      CO: t2700 M = 7.50

      Pre Flop: (t360) Hero is BB with K :spade: A :spade:
      2 folds, BTN calls t240, 1 fold, Hero raises to t3595 all in, BTN calls t2805 all in

      Flop: (t6210) 4 :diamond: 8 :spade: 7 :club:

      Turn: (t6210) 3 :club:

      River: (t6210) 9 :diamond:

      Final Pot: t6210
      BTN shows 9 :club: K :club: (a pair of Nines)
      Hero shows K :spade: A :spade: (Ace King high)
      BTN wins t6210

      villain had like 40% pfr i knew i would be ahead if he would call.



      Full Tilt Poker $6 + $0.50 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t120/t240 Blinds - 4 players - View hand 121606
      The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

      Hero (SB): t1175 M = 3.26
      BB: t1940 M = 5.39
      CO: t1780 M = 4.94
      BTN: t8605 M = 23.90

      Pre Flop: (t360) Hero is SB with J :heart: J :club:
      1 fold, BTN raises to t960, Hero raises to t1175 all in, 1 fold, BTN calls t215

      Flop: (t2590) 8 :diamond: 6 :heart: 5 :club:

      Turn: (t2590) T :diamond:

      River: (t2590) K :spade:

      Final Pot: t2590
      Hero shows J :heart: J :club: (a pair of Jacks)
      BTN shows 4 :club: K :heart: (a pair of Kings)
      BTN wins t2590



      Full Tilt Poker $6 + $0.50 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t80/t160 Blinds - 5 players - View hand 121607
      The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

      BB: t1470 M = 6.12
      UTG: t3625 M = 15.10
      CO: t1180 M = 4.92
      Hero (BTN): t1455 M = 6.06
      SB: t1270 M = 5.29

      Pre Flop: (t240) Hero is BTN with 7 :heart: A :spade:
      2 folds, Hero raises to t1455 all in, 1 fold, BB calls t1295

      Flop: (t2990) 4 :club: Q :spade: 5 :diamond:

      Turn: (t2990) 3 :club:

      River: (t2990) A :club:

      Final Pot: t2990
      BB shows 5 :heart: A :diamond: (two pair, Aces and Fives)
      Hero shows 7 :heart: A :spade: (a pair of Aces)
      BB wins t2990


      Full Tilt Poker $6 + $0.50 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t25/t50 Blinds - 9 players - View hand 121610
      The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

      BTN: t1260 M = 16.80
      SB: t1410 M = 18.80
      BB: t1680 M = 22.40
      UTG: t1820 M = 24.27
      UTG+1: t1455 M = 19.40
      Hero (UTG+2): t1430 M = 19.07
      MP1: t1495 M = 19.93
      MP2: t1560 M = 20.80
      CO: t1390 M = 18.53

      Pre Flop: (t75) Hero is UTG+2 with K :spade: K :heart:
      UTG raises to t175, 1 fold, Hero raises to t600, 6 folds, UTG calls t425

      Flop: (t1275) A :diamond: Q :diamond: J :club: (2 players)
      UTG checks, Hero bets t830 all in, UTG calls t830

      Turn: (t2935) K :diamond: (2 players - 1 is all in)

      River: (t2935) 2 :heart: (2 players - 1 is all in)

      Final Pot: t2935
      UTG shows T :diamond: T :heart: (a straight, Ace high)
      Hero shows K :spade: K :heart: (three of a kind, Kings)
      UTG wins t2935


      Full Tilt Poker $6 + $0.50 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t20/t40 Blinds - 5 players - View hand 121611
      The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

      BTN: t2770 M = 46.17
      SB: t1660 M = 27.67
      BB: t2290 M = 38.17
      Hero (UTG): t1260 M = 21
      CO: t1020 M = 17

      Pre Flop: (t60) Hero is UTG with K :spade: K :diamond:
      Hero raises to t120, 1 fold, BTN calls t120, 1 fold, BB calls t80

      Flop: (t380) K :heart: 3 :club: 6 :club: (3 players)
      BB checks, Hero bets t200, BTN folds, BB calls t200

      Turn: (t780) 4 :spade: (2 players)
      BB checks, Hero bets t640, BB calls t640

      River: (t2060) 8 :club: (2 players)
      BB bets t1330 all in, Hero calls t300 all in

      Final Pot: t2660
      BB shows 9 :club: A :club: (a flush, Ace high)
      Hero mucks K :spade: K :diamond:
      BB wins t2660


      Full Tilt Poker $6 + $0.50 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t100/t200 Blinds - 7 players - View hand 121613
      The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

      BB: t3710 M = 12.37
      UTG: t2245 M = 7.48
      UTG+1: t2160 M = 7.20
      Hero (MP): t1120 M = 3.73
      CO: t2820 M = 9.40
      BTN: t2490 M = 8.30
      SB: t7275 M = 24.25

      Pre Flop: (t300) Hero is MP with A :diamond: K :heart:
      2 folds, Hero raises to t1120 all in, 3 folds, BB calls t920

      Flop: (t2340) 8 :spade: 6 :heart: 7 :spade:

      Turn: (t2340) J :club:

      River: (t2340) J :spade:

      Final Pot: t2340
      BB shows A :spade: J :heart: (three of a kind, Jacks)
      Hero shows A :diamond: K :heart: (a pair of Jacks)
      BB wins t2340


      Full Tilt Poker $6 + $0.50 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t50/t100 Blinds - 7 players - View hand 121616
      The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

      SB: t1515 M = 10.10
      BB: t2790 M = 18.60
      UTG: t2620 M = 17.47
      UTG+1: t1545 M = 10.30
      MP: t2905 M = 19.37
      Hero (CO): t450 M = 3
      BTN: t1675 M = 11.17

      Pre Flop: (t150) Hero is CO with Q :club: K :club:
      UTG calls t100, 2 folds, Hero raises to t450 all in, 2 folds, BB calls t350, UTG calls t350

      Flop: (t1400) 9 :diamond: 3 :spade: 9 :heart: (3 players - 1 is all in)
      BB checks, UTG checks

      Turn: (t1400) 6 :diamond: (3 players - 1 is all in)
      BB checks, UTG bets t200, BB calls t200

      River: (t1800) 7 :club: (3 players - 1 is all in)
      BB checks, UTG checks

      Final Pot: t1800
      BB mucks A :club: T :diamond:
      UTG shows K :spade: 3 :diamond: (two pair, Nines and Threes)
      Hero mucks Q :club: K :club:
      UTG wins t400
      UTG wins t1400


      Full Tilt Poker $6 + $0.50 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t200/t400 Blinds - 4 players - View hand 121617
      The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

      SB: t2340 M = 3.90
      Hero (BB): t2620 M = 4.37
      CO: t5270 M = 8.78
      BTN: t3270 M = 5.45

      Pre Flop: (t600) Hero is BB with T :club: T :diamond:
      2 folds, SB raises to t2340 all in, Hero calls t1940

      Flop: (t4680) 4 :club: K :heart: 2 :club:

      Turn: (t4680) 3 :heart:

      River: (t4680) 6 :club:

      Final Pot: t4680
      SB shows 5 :spade: 8 :club: (a straight, Six high)
      Hero shows T :club: T :diamond: (a pair of Tens)
      SB wins t4680




      that was the session of like 20 sngs i didnt put hands that were coinflip or like 60-40 ahead but the thing is that these plays continue for the last 1.5 month .sorry for my bad english :)




      my sng career graph:




      may graph until now..




      thx to pokerqt for the help -.-
  • 4 replies
    • p0kerQT
      p0kerQT
      Bronze
      Joined: 28.03.2008 Posts: 1,300
      Hi Schris7,

      It looks like you played most of the hands well but got hit by variance, although the 1st KK hand I would raise less (525) or push directly preflop, the 2nd KK hand I would bet more on the flop and push the turn as you are pot committed, just stick at it your luck will turn around eventually.

      To post a picture try image shack, its pretty easy to upload on there, where it says resize image, check the box and choose option "optimise without resizing".. once you have uploaded there copy the "direct link" URL and then click this..



      I hope your luck turns around soon.

      Regards,
      Sarah
    • Schris7
      Schris7
      Bronze
      Joined: 15.01.2007 Posts: 730
      and the downswing continues ... still variance? :(


    • suvalgysiu
      suvalgysiu
      Bronze
      Joined: 09.06.2007 Posts: 307
      Originally posted by Schris7
      and the downswing continues ... still variance? :(
      maybe it is, maybe it isn't. noone can tell just by looking at the graph, try to find mistakes in your game.
    • deVall3y
      deVall3y
      Bronze
      Joined: 06.01.2009 Posts: 554
      poker gods are taking their toll for the upswing between 700-1000~