[NL2-NL10] AKo NL100

    • PanDuzePE
      PanDuzePE
      Bronze
      Joined: 12.12.2007 Posts: 5,467
      Party Poker No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (9 handed) - Party-Poker Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

      Hero (Button) ($19.50)
      SB ($100.50)
      CO ($133.34)
      BB ($100)
      MP2 ($162.45)
      UTG ($114.15)
      UTG+1 ($104.35)
      MP1 ($96.92)
      MP3 ($108.60)

      Preflop: Hero is Button with A, K
      UTG bets $3, 3 folds, MP3 calls $3, 4 folds

      Flop: ($7.50) 9, A, 2 (2 players)
      UTG checks, MP3 bets $4, UTG calls $4

      Turn: ($15.50) 7 (2 players)
      UTG checks, MP3 bets $5, UTG calls $5

      River: ($25.50) 6 (2 players)
      UTG checks, MP3 bets $10, UTG calls $10

      Total pot: $45.50


      Raiser 17/6 150 hands


      Caller 28/0 500 hands


      Opponent PFR 6 = Fold AK, but deadmoney is in pot.


      good fold?




      I had second question. In Holdem Manager I have PFR statistic and 'First Raise' which means :

      "Raise First is similar to Pre Flop Raise except it doesn’t include 3bets as its only the 1st person to raise that has their Raise First stat effected and it doesnt include raising limpers."

      If no limpers behind oponnent better to look at this or just PFR?


      And how many HANDS I need too make a right decision ? ex. reraise from late oponnent PFR 14 middle.

      100 ? 200 ? 500 ?
  • 8 replies
    • Ishindar
      Ishindar
      Bronze
      Joined: 31.12.2008 Posts: 259
      i wouldnt take the prf of the caller seriously either.

      AK has a good chance of holding up against prf 6% imho.
    • PanDuzePE
      PanDuzePE
      Bronze
      Joined: 12.12.2007 Posts: 5,467
      52.455 % 44.373 % 16.163 % 39.464 % 88+, ATs+, KQs, AKo
      47.545 % 39.464 % 16.163 % 44.373 % AdKc



      with my adv table this is fold

      push only with AKs
    • Aimboy
      Aimboy
      Bronze
      Joined: 03.06.2008 Posts: 11,940
      I would push, because I also use adv shc and you really can't say many things about a player after 150 hands. 500-1000k is hands is good probe and you can use adv shc then. Of course when player is 7/2 after 150 it means he is very tight and you can consider folding this hand and same thing if player is 50/34 after 50 hands, you can easily say that he is a fish and push him with any hand from shc.
    • Ishindar
      Ishindar
      Bronze
      Joined: 31.12.2008 Posts: 259
      yes your right AKo does get dominated by most of prf6% range
    • Aimboy
      Aimboy
      Bronze
      Joined: 03.06.2008 Posts: 11,940
      Originally posted by Ishindar
      yes your right AKo does get dominated by most of prf6% range
      Still there are 3BB dead money in pot :)
    • PanDuzePE
      PanDuzePE
      Bronze
      Joined: 12.12.2007 Posts: 5,467
      In this PFR and '1st Raise' I mean situation like that:


      xxx raises 3.5 from MP3, me late AQ.


      stats :


      so If i look on PFR this is fold.


      but Raise 1st is push.


      what to do ?
    • Aimboy
      Aimboy
      Bronze
      Joined: 03.06.2008 Posts: 11,940
      "Raise First is similar to Pre Flop Raise except it doesn’t include 3bets as its only the 1st person to raise that has their Raise First stat effected and it doesnt include raising limpers."

      If you have that statistic you can use it, in this hand UTG was 1st one to raise and there was no limpers before him - so you can use Raise 1st.
    • Gerv
      Gerv
      Bronze
      Joined: 07.05.2008 Posts: 17,678
      Hi,

      Assuming he calls you with AQs+,TT+ (=4.5%) your fold equity is 1-(4.5/8)=44%

      ES 19.5
      DM 3
      Pot 7.5
      FE 44%
      Eq vs AQs+,TT+ =
      equity win tie pots won pots tied
      Hand 0: 57.130% 44.82% 12.31% 331506984 91093338.00 { TT+, AQs+, AKo }
      Hand 1: 42.870% 30.56% 12.31% 226021668 91093338.00 { AKo }
      EV = P*FE + (1-FE)[((Eff stack+Deadmoney))*equity - (effective stack*(1-equity)]
      EV = 7.5*44% + (56%)[(22.5)*42.87% - (19.5*57.13%)]
      EV = $3.3 + 56%*-$1.49
      EV = $2.46 = 2.5bb

      Thus I would shove :)

      I look at his PFR 1st in raise (unopened)

      - Gerv