[NL20-NL50] KQc BB - TPgK

  • 3 replies
    • Jaissica
      Jaissica
      Bronze
      Joined: 10.02.2009 Posts: 1,385
      Hero made a mistake in cold-calling KQs to MP1's raise preflop in a 10 handed game.

      Essentially unless you proceed when you hit TPGK you are playing for an ~15% chance to even see a flop you can draw on (8 monster outs or better), which is a waste of money.

      So, we are stuck in a very possible outkicked situation. You know the best flop move here?

      Donkey donker donks!

      Yes, bet straight out on the flop. Ask MP1 directly "did you hit that flop?". MP1 is showing reasonable tag stats over small 42 hand read so will probably recognise what you are asking. A raise normally means "yes and I have you outkicked / overpaired, sucker". A few players are capable of raising you here with AQ / AJ / QQ, but mostly not. A call could mean "yes I hit, but I am worried you have TPTK beat" and an intent to play WA/WB 3 streets. This isnt bad as we can probably check-check to a SD and even suck out to 2 pair.

      Now, as played, we checked. MP1 cbets which means absolutely nothing. Anyone who raises PF and wont regularly cbet a K high flop second to act in a 3 way pot vs not-stations should take up something they cant lose money with, like checkers.

      So we have no information about MP1's hand from that bet. MP2 calls. MP2 is a bit of an idiot so far (37-2 over 51) so a call here most often means a FD, a bad king, possibly kings-up, sometimes a 9 or even a gutshot draw QT / JT / QJ.

      Having given up the chance to buy information for $2, we now sit in a situation where we have two options -

      * Fold TPGK (whyd we play this hand again?)
      * Call up to 3 streets with a possibly outkicked pair of kings with little hope of help (essentially playing like a calling station)
      * Check-Raise for info to ~$4.50 (way overplaying TPGK)

      See why we should have donkey-donked on the flop? It saves us having to choose between 3 far fishier options about 4 seconds later.

      The least-fishy is probably check-raise.
    • mbml
      mbml
      Black
      Joined: 27.11.2008 Posts: 20,694
      MP1 is tight. if he was loose and i was sitting at the BU, i might call. fold preflop.

      agree with jassica, just bet out. i am definitely bet/folding flop and turn. river could be b/f or c/c
    • Kaitz20
      Kaitz20
      Bronze
      Joined: 02.02.2007 Posts: 27,343
      I think you can call and evaluate on the turn
      Likely call reasonable bet on the turn and fold river
      Leading out on that flop is also fine, but against aggressive players you should play bet/shove