[NL2-NL10] NL10 FR, QQ, bad flop

    • Yuris125
      Joined: 16.03.2009 Posts: 319
      Hand converted with online PokerStrategy.com hand converter:

      $0.05/$0.1 No-Limit Hold'em (9 handed)

      Known players:

      Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF/Hands)
      UTG1 - 18/4/1.7/84

      Preflop: Hero is MP3 with Q, Q.
      UTG1 calls $0.10, 3 folds, Hero raises to $0.5, 4 folds, UTG1 raises to $1.4, Hero calls $0.90.

      Flop: ($2.95) K, T, A (2 players)
      UTG1 checks, Hero bets $1.50, UTG1 raises to $4.8, Hero folds, UTG1 gets uncalled bet back.

      Final Pot: $4.45.

      Should I push preflop?
      Should I check behind on this flop?


      edit: corrected stats
  • 2 replies
    • Jaissica
      Joined: 10.02.2009 Posts: 1,385
      No, yes (answering questions).

      First, consider what hands UTG1 normally raises with to be 4% raise. Thats a fairly solid read after 84 hands.

      Its something like AQs+, AKo+, JJ+.

      Think further what hands UTG1 would therefor 3-bet with. A normal 15/12 player 3bets about 4%, sometimes AQs+, AKo+, sometimes JJ, mostly QQ+. This nit will only be 3-betting AA/KK, rarely AKo+, rarely QQ.

      Throw in that villain played a classic "hihi im an idiot who wants to win exactly 50 cents with my AA by limp-raising you with it!" line. When he did that he as good as turned over his aces (id give him 95% aces 4% kings 1% other here) given we already know he is a nit who rarely even raises, much less 3 bets, leave alone limp-raise.

      At that point you had an okay set odds call though, 90 cents with $8.60 future implieds, $2.05 pot already for a return rate of 11.83-1, easily profitable given the hand range we have assigned to the villain means he will stack off 100% of flops if we hit.

      On the flop we have an easy check behind. The idiot already showed us a slowplay preflop, why not again on the most obvious flop ever? Heck, we even have a gutshot draw to really ruin his day, wouldnt that have been grand? Ill bet that if we called the flop raise UTG1 would check-raise again if they got a chance. Some people are just strange like that.

      But my point, which as always I only get to after a page of musings, is that if a nit limp-raises you preflop his hand range is AA, AA, AA, AA, AA, AA or AA. The only thing that changes is the suits.
    • veriz
      Joined: 20.07.2008 Posts: 65,504

      Also you can read Jaissica analyze, it's pretty good one.

      Should I push preflop?
      There is no point to push against such an opponent, he will very often show you with his limp/raise very often AA/KK in this situation. It's a perfect spot to take the odds and just Call here and play in position against him and hope to hit something big like a set or straight.
      Should I check behind on this flop?
      Yes, perfect spot to do that, he has here most of the time a set or at least the Ace. Just take the free card and try to catch a straight and let him pay you off.

      But the conclusion is that such moves as limp/raise are very often AA/KK and you have to watch out even with KK.

      Best regards,