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[NL2-NL10] NL100 A9o Thinnest Valuebet Eeeeever

    • DaPhunk
      DaPhunk
      Bronze
      Joined: 01.03.2008 Posts: 2,805
      Party Poker $100.00 No Limit Hold'em - 10 players
      The Official DeucesCracked.com Hand History Converter

      UTG+1: $83.80
      UTG+2: $101.00
      MP1: $101.50
      MP2: $136.02
      MP3: $16.50
      Hero (CO): $20.69
      BTN: $20.88
      SB: $43.69
      BB: $94.31
      UTG: $35.56

      Pre Flop: ($1.50) Hero is CO with 9 :club: A :heart:
      6 folds, Hero raises to $4, 1 fold, SB calls $3.50, 1 fold

      Flop: ($9.00) A :spade: 7 :club: J :spade: (2 players)
      SB checks, Hero bets $5.00, SB calls $5

      Turn: ($19.00) K :club: (2 players)
      SB checks, Hero checks

      I Check Behind For Bluff Induction, Given that a Beter Ace is stacking me anyway and this way I can get some Value out of Kings and Weaker Aces that may Fold Turn. Its a Dangerous move given that the board is Double Suited but I'm happy to take that risk.

      River: ($19.00) Q :diamond: (2 players)
      SB checks, Hero bets $11.69, SB calls $11.69

      Ok, I'm going to Explain why I made this Extraordinarily Thin Valuebet.

      Villain is 31/13 with 32% WTSD. His AF is 2.8. 118 hands.

      I do not think Villain would not often put me on a Ten so He would be betting Two-pair or a set to make me call with Ax or Kx. He Would obviously bet QTo having hit a Major snag on that river card in his value extraction plan or Tx. He is however Loose enough to call ME with Ax or Kx and I now have the best Ax given that he would have made a thin valuebet against myself with better.

      What Do you think? Too Thin a Bet? Does He Check/Call with a Set or Two-Pair in this scenario? I would have thought if he was willing to play Check/Call he would be happier to just Bet instead as that way he can get more worse hands to call than would bet against him. I'm not going to put a Ten in his range Particularly often either.
  • 3 replies
    • burek2000
      burek2000
      Bronze
      Joined: 16.11.2007 Posts: 3,105
      I would raise 3/3,5BB preflop.

      I would raise 2/3 on the flop and just push turn and expect to have the best hand if I got called.

      As played, I'm raising turn and checking river behind.

      As played as played :) , I'm just checking river behind, imo he's calling you with more hands that have you beat than you have beat.

      ...just commenting NL100+ hands. ^^
    • DaPhunk
      DaPhunk
      Bronze
      Joined: 01.03.2008 Posts: 2,805
      Hmm, Interesting. I've Rethought this hand and one thing i can say for sure is that I really don't like my bet on River anymore. I don't think Villain would bet two-pair here as he can so easily be scared by the board.

      I think I Overthought his thinking process if that makes sense.
    • ysessa
      ysessa
      Basic
      Joined: 11.07.2008 Posts: 1,331
      easy cb river.. this is no vbet its a bluffbet no worth hand will call your river bet.